Sound Smart: 6 Observations From the NFL Divisional Round

Soldier Field (Chicago) — You saw the Los Angeles Rams edge the Chicago Bears in a thriller and the Seattle Seahawks annihilate the depleted San Francisco 49ers. You saw the Denver Broncos prevail against the Buffalo Bills in controversial fashion and the New England Patriots outlast the Houston Texans. 

You probably didn’t see Broncos quarterback Bo Nix break his ankle, but you know by now that it happened.

So let's try to spin it forward, dive deeper and think outside the box about what we witnessed in the divisional round of the playoffs. This is "Sound Smart," where we prepare you for Monday morning with six observations from the second round of the postseason. If I do my job, you’ll be fluent in the NFL’s playoff action.

1. IF THERE’S ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW

Ben Johnson’s message about the Bears’ season was spot-on, but his players might’ve missed the point: They missed an opportunity.

Given the way Johnson’s tenure with the Detroit Lions went (and how the Lions' season went this year), the Bears head coach must have appreciated how close his team was. How they let the victory slip through their fingers in their 20-17 overtime loss to the Rams. How this sort of special run is hard to replicate.

Look at what happened to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2025 after their theatrical run of narrow victories in 2024. 

Look at what happened to the Minnesota Vikings from last season to this one.

It’s not easy to win one playoff game. It’s not easy to get into a position to take down Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and the Rams in the postseason. Ask Josh Allen about how many shots he’s gotten to play in the conference title game. And so I found one quote from Johnson to be salient during his postgame press conference.

A reporter asked whether Johnson felt momentum building into next year.

"Next season is next season. It’s a new chapter," Johnson said at the postgame podium in Chicago. "We’ll have to write a whole brand new story. That’s the thing about this, you put in all this work and you sacrifice and you trust the people around you and you can’t take any shortcuts. I wish I could say this is momentum from year one. It doesn’t work that way. It doesn’t work that way. And honestly, I don’t want to talk about next year yet."

The momentum for next year is as real as the momentum that Chicago felt after tight end Cole Kmet caught Caleb Williams' miraculous heave to the end zone on fourth down in the final moments of regulation. At that point, the Bears thought they were winning Sunday, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett admitted. Williams said he was visualizing the different scenarios where the Bears would win in overtime.

None of his imaginations came true.

Caleb Williams made the two biggest throws in the Bears' loss to the Rams: a last-second TD pass in the fourth quarter and an interception late in overtime. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Just as quickly as Soldier Field flooded with momentum, it dried up with Williams’ overtime interception. A few minutes later, the Rams kicked a field goal to win.

"This is what happens. It ends abruptly," Johnson said.

I was surprised upon hearing a particular word cropping up in the Bears locker room — and then also during Williams’ postgame press conference:

"Excited."

Excited?

"It’s a frustration. It’s a fire. Those are the two words I’d go with. I’m excited, though," Williams said. 

He added: "Every year is its own thing, but I will say that … we’ve got a good core that the organization’s done a good job of building and so the growth that we’ve had is going to be enjoyable. … We’re going to be here for a little bit. I’m excited about it."

Enjoyable?

Williams wasn’t the only player who was "excited" after what — at least to me — seemed like a devastating defeat.

"I’m so excited to have [Williams] as my quarterback," Jarrett said. "Just the fight. Just the resiliency. Just the raw talent and the belief. The sky’s the limit for him. I’m so proud of him to see the growth from the first day of OTAs to now. Don't get it twisted. We hurt. … I'm saying we hurt, but we’re also proud of the effort and the commitment that it took to even get to this point."

And what about the running backs? They had an especially hard time converting those third- and fourth-and-short plays versus the Rams.

"We took a step in the right direction this year, and we’ve been counted out all year," Bears RB D'Andre Swift said. "It ain't no moral victory. I understand that, but I’m damn proud of this group, this coaching staff — the work that we all put in. Nobody knows, outside of this building, what we do every single day. So we took a step in the right direction."

This wasn’t a rainbows-and-butterflies locker room. But it wasn’t what I’d expected. And from my vantage point, the players are missing the point that their coach made at his press conference.

The Bears had more than enough opportunities to win this game. You might even argue that they should have won this game. They missed so many chances to put themselves in a better position to win. There was the fourth-and-2 on the opening drive that ended in an interception. There was the second-quarter turnover on downs that came after failed third-and-1 and fourth-and-1 attempts. There were the red zone struggles, including the fact that they came away empty after a first-and-goal from the Rams’ 5-yard line in the fourth quarter. 

And of course, there was the interception in overtime, where Williams made an unnecessarily risky throw on second-and-8 — he later called it a "miscommunication" with D.J. Moore on how the route should’ve been run. Rams safety Kam Curl ended up securing the back-breaking turnover.

Swift came to Williams’ defense on that play.

"Man, that ain’t on Caleb," he said when asked if he spoke to Williams after the final interception. "Don’t worry about that. Play that type of game — it ain’t on Caleb at all."

At all? 

Williams made incredible plays — with the throw to Kmet being downright impossible for every other QB in the league and maybe in the history of the league. But that one throw can’t excuse the mistakes he made at other points in the game. The blame here hardly falls on Williams alone, even with three interceptions. Plenty of Bears came up short, and it's understandable for them to back their 24-year-old QB.

The Bears have built a culture around Johnson, who appears to be a special coach.

They also trust Williams, given the incredible late-game work he did all season. His arm and creativity is unlike anything I’ve seen.

That’s special, too.

I just wonder if the Bears (aside from Johnson) realize the magnitude of their success this year, because I am not totally sure they fully acknowledged the magnitude of their shortcomings in this game. It’s highly unlikely that they can do this again. Teams like the Bears — with all these late-game heroics — are more vulnerable to regression, even with an elite coach and a young QB. Even with an impressive core.

The Bears should’ve won this game. Maybe it hasn’t hit them yet. It might not hit them until whenever they don't fall two plays short of making the NFC title game, or miss the playoffs altogether. Maybe then they'll truly understand how far they got — and what they left on the table in overtime against Stafford and the Rams.

2. WHAT IF …

Bills QB Josh Allen never wins a Super Bowl?

My heart breaks for Buffalo. 

If you’re a sports fan — a good-faith consumer of competition — how could your heart not break for the Bills and, in particular, for Allen?

With red, teary eyes, he stood in front of the media and struggled to get words out about Buffalo's overtime loss to the Broncos. I hope you understand my sympathy isn’t about bias or fanaticism. It’s about humanity. 

And man, it hurt to watch Allen face failure, again. 

The Bills' season, on the whole, was impressive. It was a success by most teams’ standards. But when measured against Allen’s ultimate goal — a Super Bowl win — the season was a failure. That’s the devastating reality of the NFL. 

Only 46 players will dress for the winning team in the Super Bowl. Allen won’t be one of them.

"It’s extremely difficult," Alen told reporters. "Feel like I let my teammates down tonight. … It’s been a long season. I hate how it ended. That’s going to stick with me for a long time."

When it comes to being his fault, he’s right — and he’s wrong.

And I’ll get into the ways he let his teammates down and how they let him down — and how it all added up to a devastating calculus that maybe it’ll never happen for Allen. But first, I want to acknowledge the expectations and the pressure that have smothered Allen. It’s why he is clearly more upset than we’ve ever seen him as a pro.

You must know: Buffalo has never ended a postseason run with a win. You must know: Buffalo has ended every Super Bowl pursuit with heartbreak.

Many — probably Allen included — thought Buffalo could win the Super Bowl on Allen’s talent alone. The aggressive way Allen played in Denver (with four turnovers and three touchdowns) was evidence that even he felt the Bills would only win a Super Bowl if he carried his team there. We’ll never know for sure whether Allen’s play was overly aggressive.

We do know, however, that it was a delusion that made everyone believe in Allen and the Bills. Media members were infatuated with the idea of Allen getting his shot. If you didn’t look at their roster, you would think: What better opportunity for Buffalo to win? No Patrick Mahomes. No Joe Burrow. No Lamar Jackson. But when you looked at the roster carefully, you could plainly see the ways this team could not — and did not — add up to the others in the AFC.

Not unless Allen was unsustainably excellent. And there’s the rub: the unsustainability. Because this Bills team is good. But they’re definitely not great. They’re not a Super Bowl roster without the best football player on the planet playing like the best football player on the planet.

Josh Allen holds the NFL record for postseason wins (8) by a starting quarterback without a Super Bowl appearance. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

With Allen, they had a shot. Until they didn’t.

"I think we all feel that way," Brandin Cooks said through tears. "I look back and I’m like, ‘Man what could I have done to be able to alleviate some of that pressure from him?’ You just love this game so much and when you come up short like this, it’s going to sting for a long time."

The Bills’ loss to the Broncos was filled with elation and deflation in ways that only Allen’s games seem to offer. The throw to Cooks was one of many that came under scrutiny, because it ended with cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian intercepting the football by snatching it out of Cooks' hands (more on that in the next section.) Cooks really should never have been on the field for the Bills. He joined the team in late November, and he was one of many pass-catchers who became playmakers by necessity on a roster that didn’t have enough. And that thinning showed on that interception — and on the incompletion to Mecole Hardman (another midseason addition) on the play before the McMillan interception, where Allen wasn’t in sync with his receiver who ran too deep of a route.

Argue all you want over the interception. It was a 50-50 play where the beauty or horror is in the eye of the beholder. I, for one, think the officials got that play right. I also think they got the other calls right. If there was one ambiguous call, it was the first defensive pass interference call on cornerback Taron Johnson, but given that there was also a roughing the passer penalty, it really didn’t matter that the DPI looked questionable.

None of that could’ve mattered if Allen had simply hit Dawson Knox on the Bills’ final throw of regulation. If Allen had hit Knox, the tight end probably would’ve scored. And that would’ve effectually decided the game.

But in the moment that mattered most, Allen missed Knox. An overthrow.

There were more logic-defying plays where Allen came up short. In an inexcusable play at the end of the first half, he scrambled with 16 seconds left (and no timeouts) and fumbled the ball to set up a Broncos field goal. It was three free points for Denver and some of the worst situational awareness I’ve seen from Allen since his second season. (And that’s saying something.) Then Allen made things worse with another fumble on the second play of the second half. In the third quarter, Allen threw an interception immediately after Bo Nix threw a pick — letting Denver off easy on the Broncos QB’s only costly mistake of the night and the only takeaway from the Bills defense.

Those mistakes made it clear as day: No one wanted to win a Super Bowl more than Allen.

It would be silly to say he wanted it too much. But it’s fair to say that he felt he had to do too much. And given the score, he probably could’ve done a whole lot less and not turned the ball over four times.

He must have seen the way Drake Maye is ascending in the AFC East. He knows that Burrow and Mahomes and Lamar will be back. He must have seen the way Nix looked a whole lot like Allen in this game. Even Trevor Lawrence is playing his best football. Quarterbacks are the key to sustained success and there are a lot of teams geared up to be competitive for the foreseeable future, especially in the AFC.

It’s only going to get harder for Allen to win a Super Bowl.

This offseason will be about making sure Allen has less to carry — in the way of offense, expectations and pressure — in 2026. But given that he’ll be 30 years old and plays a lot like Cam Newton, Allen might be running out of time.

He must be wondering: What if I never win one? Will every season end in tears?

Sean McDermott had to call a timeout to get officials to review the Broncos' Ja'Quan McMillian's interception. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

3. HE SAID WHAT?!

Sean McDermott called The Buffalo News late on Saturday night to air out additional grievances about the officiating — specifically the ruling on Denver defensive back Ja'Quan McMillian's interception.

McDermott felt a rare kind of urgency to deliver a second message about what happened around the pass intended for Cooks, which ended in an overtime interception. The Bills coach addressed the play at the press conference and questioned the officials' process in making their ruling and sharing their information about that ruling: that Cooks didn’t possess the ball for long enough to constitute a downed catch. That meant it was a turnover.

Apparently, after rewatching it and thinking through it again (and again (and again), McDermott decided to call up The Buffalo News’ Jay Skurski to air out more grievances.

Yes, this sort of phone call — which Skurski logged as a pool report — is extremely rare.

McDermott repeatedly stated: "That’s a catch all the way."

I still think it was an interception. 

The rules say as much, even if our eyes make us think maybe it was a catch.

"I thought the ball came loose when they hit the ground and McMillan ended up with it," FOX Sports rules analyst Dean Blandino texted me. "Cooks has to hold onto the ball until his entire body is on the ground, and it didn’t look like he did. When it’s that close, I like going with survival of the fittest. I thought they should have stopped the game to do a full review to eliminate any doubt that they looked at it closely. Ultimately, whatever way they ruled on the field, to me, would stand."

In the slow-mo replay era, this isn’t just a game of inches. It’s a game of milliseconds. It was the type of play where you can only say what you think happened. But it’s not definitive. That sort of gray area drives fans insane. 

It’s 2026. How can we not get it right?

Well, that’s because there was simultaneously no right or wrong call. Even in the year 2026 — with all the technology and carefully spelled-out rules — there will always be ambiguity. It might be hard to see at this exact moment, but it’s part of what makes this sport great. That McDermott can’t see that is surprising. 

That McDermott is refusing to take accountability in the heat of the moment is notable. He is, after all, the same guy that said this, just a month ago.

"We go by what the officials call," McDermott said after a controversial win over the Patriots. 

The Bills coach will almost definitely face a fine for his comments. He will likely win over the Buffalo fan base for the criticism and earn respect within his locker room. I don’t know how ownership will view the outspoken behavior, but it stands to reason that McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane could face job insecurity in the coming days. And not just because of the criticisms of the officiating. McDermott and Beane have had six seasons of Allen in his prime. They don’t have a Super Bowl to show for it.

Might it be time to give someone else a shot?

4. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSY

What the heck happened to C.J. Stroud? Well …

In a 27-16 loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday, Stroud was the first player with five or more interceptions and five or more fumbles in a single postseason since at least 1991, per FOX Sports Research. I’d call Stroud a train wreck, but that would be ungenerous to train wrecks.

So, what happened?

The same thing that happened to Justin Herbert.

Mike Vrabel happened.

Listen to what Patriots linebacker Robert Spillane relayed after last week’s game when the Patriots put a hurting on Herbert and the L.A. Chargers at Gillette Stadium.

"After the game, talking to a few of the guys on the other team, they had no clue what we were doing," Spillane told reporters in a postgame press conference.

The Patriots are playing undecipherable coverage. Their blitzes are cruel and unusual. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez looks like one of the NFL’s best. Same with defensive tackle Milton Williams. And so does — of all people— pass-rusher K’Lavon Chaisson.

It’s a testament to them. It’s a testament to their leader, Vrabel.

New England was multiple steps ahead of Stroud and offensive coordinator Nick Caley — a former mentee of Patriots OC Josh McDaniels.

C.J. Stroud threw four interceptions in the first half alone versus the Patriots. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Stroud attempted a tight-window throw on 14 of his 47 passes (29.8%), the highest rate forced by a defense over the past six postseasons, per Next Gen Stats. New England’s defense added 27.8 expected points across five turnovers, the most by a playoff defense in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).

Stroud has been streaky — at best — and downright bad — at worst — over the past 10 games. It should come as no surprise that he turned the ball over. The surprise was just how often New England generated takeaways. The Patriots had a good-not-great defense for most of the regular season. This unit is barely recognizable, suddenly looking like one of the best in the NFL.

5. ONE PLAY THAT SAYS IT ALL

For all the skepticism around Bo Nix and his ability, he delivered.

On the first play of overtime, the Bills decided to send two extra blitzers. It felt like when a new goalie steps in for the starter: You’ve got to test him. But Nix was perfect on the play. He used a hard count to undress the defense — revealing their blitz and coverage. Nix set his protection properly so he had enough time to hit his hot-route, an 11-yard gain to Courtland Sutton.

Buffalo wanted a big play to open overtime. Nix made them pay.

It was exemplary of what Nix did all game long. The Bills had an impressive game plan prepared for the young QB, and on third downs, they threw all sorts of unusual and creative blitzes at Nix. It would be hyperbolic to say he didn’t flinch, given he threw an interception and completed fewer than 60% of his passes. But he performed especially well despite the literal and emotional pressure.

I anticipate that Nix’s incredible game will get lost in the shuffle as everyone turns their attention to backup Jarrett Stidham, who will take over for Nix in the AFC Championship Game. I, for one, don’t think the Broncos stand a chance anymore, given what the Patriots will have in store for Stidham. But I think that’s all the more reason to acknowledge what Nix has done quietly to establish himself as one of the NFL’s premier passers.

It’s a crowded space. It’s a little early to call him elite.

But because Nix is tucked away in Denver and under Sean Payton’s wing, the young QB doesn’t get much love. He had an awesome season. He got significantly better. And if he were still healthy, he could have even been a safe bet for Super Bowl MVP.

6. EVERYONE’S AFRAID TO SAY IT …

Part 1: Seahawks GM John Schneider has been brilliant, and defensive guru Mike Macdonald might be a … QB whisperer.

During a training camp joint practice, Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba carved apart the Green Bay Packers defense. I had an interview scheduled with Cooper Kupp, who had two catches in the practice — both on meaningful downs. But I knew I was set to speak to the wrong WR. Smith-Njigba was about to be a superstar. His breakout year started in training camp.

He is one of Seattle’s many success stories this year. Because of him (and all the other success stories), Darnold has been excellent. Because of all those success stories, Darnold is overlooked.

This offseason, the Seahawks did what every analyst suggests a team should do: exploit a value opportunity in the QB market. They found a veteran castoff and built around him.

It ran contrary to the prevailing wisdom, which is that the best value is a QB on his rookie contract. The problem with that idea is that young QBs generally take time to develop — if they develop at all. We talk a lot about the unreliability of QB development, but it doesn’t seem to change things on draft day when teams spend first-rounders on QBs they think they can plug and play. By the time the QB has developed, he might already be due for a megadeal. And such a contract creates challenges that the Bills and Chiefs now face. It’s hard to build a 53-man roster with a massive contract taking up cap space. GMs have to hit on draft picks and bargain-bin free agents at a high rate to build around that QB. 

When Sam Darnold plays mistake-free football, as he did versus the 49ers on Saturday, the Seahawks are particularly hard to beat. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

So why not set up a QB for success by giving him everything he needs?

Why not snatch a veteran castoff who is actually plug-and-play? 

Why not shop for a QB in the bargain bin, rather than the other positions?

It’s easier said than done. And when the counterintuitive concept fails, the executive looks idiotic. He’s a punching bag for criticism. He’s open for firing.

That’s why it’s important to note what Schneider did. And it’s not just how he moved on from Geno Smith to Darnold, which is actually the least important of all the decisions Schneider made. No, it’s about all the other things: drafting stars like Smith-Njigba, CB Devon Witherspoon, OL Gray Zabel and Charles Cross, DB Nick Emmanwori and running backs Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. The list goes on. And in free agency, the Seahawks completed the final spots on the roster, with Darnold, Kupp and DeMarcus Lawrence, among others. They also traded Rashid Shaheed, who scored the game-opening kickoff return touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday night.

It added up to a complete roster that’s dangerous at every position.

For the second straight year, the Seahawks quietly boasted one of the league's more prolific passers. Only this year, the Seahawks have set up their roster and their game plan to depend on that QB as little as possible. While Macdonald is deservedly celebrated for his defensive acumen, he has been outstanding in fostering a positive environment for his QBs.

You don’t typically think of the defensive guy as a QB guru. But maybe we should.

Because while the 2018 draft class boasted Allen and Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield, it’s Darnold (once a Jets selection) who suddenly looks like the best candidate to win a Super Bowl. 

Part 2: Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte is the truth.

The win over the Texans wasn’t an especially good game from Drake Maye, who turned the ball over three times (one interception and four fumbles with two lost). He completed 62.5% of his passes for 165 yards and three touchdowns. And if not for Stroud’s performance, Maye’s shortcomings might have been a more prominent talking point.

One guy who did not come up short was Boutte.

Boutte ripped down a one-handed touchdown despite coverage from cornerback Derek Stingley. And maybe Boutte had the confidence he’d make the catch because he made a very similar play against Stingley earlier this year. That’s right, Boutte beat out one of the league’s best corners on the deep ball multiple times this year. As Maye has honed that part of his game, Boutte has been right there for his QB to optimize the downfield passing.

"He keeps on making them. He keeps on making plays, making me look good," Maye told reporters after the game. "A one-handed catch, not much else to say about it. It was pretty sweet. Kind of the same type of throw as my first one to him, and he made an even better catch this time."

New England might someday have a proper WR1. Maybe as soon as 2026. But Boutte should remain the team’s deep threat, because his rapport with Maye is superlative.

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna. 

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