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San Francisco 49ers: Predicting the Players Cut Heading into 2017

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 12:48 p.m. ET

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Fansided, Peter Panacy/FanSided via Niner Noise

Niner Noise takes a look at a number of on-roster players the San Francisco 49ers may wind up cutting this offseason. While cap space isn’t an issue, a roster overhaul certainly is.

Nov 27, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) looks on from the sideline during the second half against Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins won 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco 49ers need a complete rethinking and overhaul of their 53-man roster in 2017.

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Being 2-14 last year, and towards the very bottom in most offensive and defensive categories, warrants this. It’s going to be a process. But it’s one that needs to start as soon as possible.

Of course, nothing will change until the Niners land their next general manager and head coach. They’ll have a lot of input regarding who stays and goes.

Fortunately, one of the major worries they won’t have to deal with is the salary cap.

According to Over the Cap, San Francisco is projected to have $78,199,673 in space against the projected $168 million salary cap. That’s huge. And it’s a number that could grow, if the 49ers elect to part ways with current on-roster players. Especially the expensive ones.

Who are those guys going to be?

Well, let’s make some speculations. To do this, let’s start by having each candidate under contract through the end of this year. The list won’t include players walking in 2017 free agency.

Also, let’s not concern ourselves too much with depth players who aren’t of much note. Few people are even going to notice if the 53rd player on the 53-man roster gets cut after training camp.

No, these names will be a bit more notable. And we’ll touch on why they’re cut candidates.

Aug 14, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Mike Davis (22) runs the ball against the Houston Texans in the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium. The Texans won 24-13. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Running Back Mike Davis

The Niners have little reason to keep third-year pro running back Mike Davis on the 53-man roster after two underwhelming seasons in San Francisco.

Yes, Davis flashed some promise in the preseason under former head coach Chip Kelly last year. But those efforts amounted to almost nothing after Week 1. Davis did manage to start a game and made appearances in eight total. Yet the former fourth-round pick had just 19 carries for 2.6 yards per attempt.

And he spent the majority of the year on the inactive list.

True, the 49ers need a solid backup to spell No. 1 tailback Carlos Hyde. But it’s looking as if Davis is nowhere near the answer.

He’ll likely be cut after training camp.

Oct 2, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end Blake Bell (84) warms up prior to the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Tight End Blake Bell

Another fourth-round pick who hasn’t amounted to much of anything is third-year pro tight end Blake Bell.

True, Bell was an experiment. He had only one year at the position at Oklahoma after switching from quarterback. So it is safe to assume the Niners are possibly still willing to see if Bell’s raw skill set can be something useful.

But with San Francisco extending both tight ends Vance McDonald and Garrett Celek last year, Bell’s chances to climb the depth chart seem a little slimmer.

And it isn’t as if he’s done much on the field either.

Over two years, Bell has amassed just 19 receptions for 271 yards. And when McDonald went down with a season-ending injury late in the year, former practice squad tight end Je’Ron Hamm got more of the attention on the field.

Oct 19, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers defensive back Dontae Johnson (36) before the game against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Cornerback Dontae Johnson

What do you know? Another fourth-round pick who has fallen well short of expectations.

Cornerback Dontae Johnson was supposed to wind up being the big-bodied presence capable of lining up on the outside or in the nickel.

Even with the 49ers trying to groom a young secondary, Johnson’s snap counts have seen a steady decrease since his rookie year in 2014:

Right now, Johnson is hovering around the No. 5 cornerback spot on the depth chart. That won’t be safe heading into 2017, especially if the 49ers bring aboard another corner or two this offseason.

And given how little he saw the field last year, it appears to be a given he won’t be on the roster to start the upcoming season.

Aug 14, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Bruce Ellington (10) reacts during the game against the Houston Texans in first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Houston defeated San Francisco 24-13. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Wide Receiver Bruce Ellington

Yep, another fourth-round flameout.

Wide receiver Bruce Ellington seems to be one of those players on the cusp of making great things happen out of the slot. But each year, something else happens to prevent this. In 2016, it was a season-ending hamstring injury.

Just take a look at Ellington’s career numbers, courtesy of Pro Football Reference:

In contrast, current Niners slot receiver Jeremy Kerley — a free agent this season — managed 64 receptions for 667 yards and three touchdowns in one year with San Francisco. If re-signed, Ellington is easily the odd man out.

Sep 12, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers center Marcus Martin (66) during a NFL game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Center Marcus Martin

2015 should have been enough proof 23-year-old center Marcus Martin wasn’t going to cut it at the NFL level. And yet, somehow, he managed to find his way back on the roster in 2016.

Martin even started late in the season, following No. 1 center Daniel Kilgore’s season-ending leg injury.

Yet the 2016 season wasn’t kind to Martin either. Before he also was lost to injury, Martin ended up posting a 39.1 overall grade, per Pro Football Focus, which ranked 46th out of all centers graded.

Even as a backup, Martin takes away a roster spot the 49ers would likely rather have for a promising up-and-coming lineman or solid interior offensive line backup.

Martin won’t be back in 2017.

Oct 16, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; San Francisco 49ers linebacker Tank Carradine (95) against the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. Buffalo beats San Francisco 45 to 16. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

EDGE Tank Carradine

It’s anyone’s guess why the 49ers extended edge rusher Tank Carradine for one more year through 2017 last offseason. True, Carradine’s 2016 preseason efforts were noteworthy. And surely the Niners hoped his transition from a 3-4 defensive end to a situational pass-rusher would make this worthwhile.

But it didn’t happen.

One can understand the desire to be patient with the former Florida State star, whom San Francisco tabbed in Round 2 of the 2013 NFL Draft and subsequently redshirted his rookie year.

Yet Carradine’s numbers, from Pro Football Reference, haven’t come anywhere close to living up to the collegiate hype:

Any patience has worn thin. It’s time for the 49ers to look elsewhere to reinforce their pass rush. Sad, but Carradine isn’t going to be a part of the answer here.

Oct 19, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers free safety Eric Reid (35) during the game against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Safety Eric Reid

This might come as a bit of a shock. But it wouldn’t be totally surprising if the 49ers parted ways with one-time Pro Bowl safety Eric Reid this offseason either.

Contractually, it wouldn’t hurt at all. San Francisco would have zero in dead money if Reid was released, as shown in the chart above. And one could make the argument Reid hasn’t ascended much since his lone Pro Bowl campaign back in his rookie 2013 season.

True, Reid does provide valuable leadership on a predominantly young Niners defense. But there is a thought moving fellow defensive back Jimmie Ward to his natural safety spot would eliminate the need to keep Reid on the roster.

This seems lesser of a possibility than the others, but it wouldn’t be overly crazy if San Francisco made this move.

And that leads us to another safety in line to be cut.

Jan 21, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Team Carter safety Antoine Bethea of the San Francisco 49ers (24) during the Pro Bowl Draft at The Arizona Biltmore. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Safety Antoine Bethea

While cutting safety Eric Reid is a bit more of a long shot, releasing fellow safety Antoine Bethea is a definite possibility.

At 32 years old, Bethea is hitting the twilight of his career. And while veteran leadership is important, it only goes so far if the on-field results aren’t leading to wins.

True, Bethea had a solid season in 2016. Pro Football Focus gave him a 72.5 overall grade, which ranked third highest in San Francisco’s secondary. But one has to wonder how much that will taper off with another year removed from Father Time taking its toll.

Cutting Bethea would save the Niners $5.75 million in cap space — money that could be used to land younger, more promising players.

Plus, the thought of moving defensive back Jimmie Ward to safety and, likely, putting third-year pro Jaquiski Tartt into a more prominent role makes sense here.

Oct 19, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers outside linebacker Ahmad Brooks (55) before the game against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Linebacker Ahmad Brooks

Each year, it seems as if veteran linebacker Ahmad Brooks is on the roster bubble. And, for whatever reason, Brooks manages to land a prominent role.

It made sense in 2016. Fellow linebacker Aaron Lynch started off the season serving a four-game suspension. Then-second-year pro Eli Harold wasn’t quite ready to assume primary duties either.

So it was Brooks by default.

Brooks is nothing close to the 2013 Pro Bowl-caliber player now. At best, he’s a situational pass-rusher — indicated by his team-leading six sacks in 2016. Everything else is suspect.

According to Pro Football Focus, Brooks’ 2016 overall grade came in at 46.2 overall — lowest out of any 49ers linebacker not named Michael Wilhoite. And we shouldn’t expect that number to increase, considering Brooks is 32 years old.

So saving $7.8 million in cap space, against retaining an aging and less-effective contributor, only makes too much sense for San Francisco this offseason.

December 24, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) before playing against the Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick

Of course we have to end here.

Who knows what happens with quarterback Colin Kaepernick this offseason. He could opt out of his deal and test the free-agent market. But could he ever expect to get the $14.5 million in guaranteed salary the 49ers are willing to give him in 2017?

Certainly not.

Even if he stays in San Francisco, will a new Niners regime want him back? That’s even more a pressing question.

More from Niner Noise

Yes, there is Kap’s on-field protests to consider and how much of a distraction that will be to a team in transition, if any. But a new regime may not feel the same way about Kaepernick’s social activism as former head coach Chip Kelly and Co.

More pressing will be the future of the position. A new general manager or head coach could easily see Kap’s on-field efforts in the decline and not part of the future.

Tack on the $16.9 million in cap savings, and it’s a very real chance Kaepernick is cut even if he elects not to opt out.

Remember, the 49ers are starting anew. And it’s simply too hard to envision a scenario in which Kaepernick remains a long-term option.

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