Quick Fixing the 49ers: 5 Bold Roster Moves for the 2017 Offseason
The 49ers made some sweeping changes at the top. Now it’s time to do the same with the roster. Niner Noise’s JD Leidy identifies five quick fixes for 2017.
Feb 8, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers president Jed York during press conference at the Moscone Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Baalke’s out. Kelly’s out. Shanahan’s In. York? C’mon. You can’t, ahem, don’t dismiss owners.
In all seriousness, as the 2016 NFL regular season came to a close, a series of wholesale changes swept through 4949 Marie P. Debartolo Drive.
The 49ers fired their first year head coach. They fired their long-standing general manager. They interviewed a bushel (and a peck) of replacement candidates for each. And now, they wait.
Oct 23, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan prepares for a game against the San Diego Chargers at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
With presumptive 49ers head coach-to-be Kyle Shanahan heading to the Super Bowl, the 49ers are left with little to do these days but twiddle their thumbs. That and pray to whatever totems they hold dear that he doesn’t get cold feet, and that by the time “Lil’ Shanny” (apologies, Kyle) comes to town, there’s still someone with a pulse willing to sit beside him as GM.
But, the head coach/general manager search is only the half of the equation. Of course, it’s critical to be brimful with talent at the top, especially for long-term, sustained success.
However, when it comes to winning in the short-term, which is what every Niner fan really wants, it’s just as much (or more) about the talent on the field.
With that in mind, let’s take a break from all of the front office prattle for a moment, and instead focus on a time-honored activity that even the most casual fan can get behind: some frivolous free agency and draft speculation.
Before proceeding, it must be acknowledged that each of the ensuing suggestions involves significant guesswork, and rational minds could undoubtedly find reasons why either the team(s) or player(s) involved would not (or should not) adopt them.
That said, if Jed York is serious about revitalizing the 49ers’ “winning culture,” and perhaps more importantly, reinvigorating a disheartened fan base, here’s how to do it: Win now.
No card-carrying, flag-waving, game-going member of the Faithful wants to be party to a three-year rebuild. They may be resigned to it, but they certainly don’t want it.
In that spirit, here are five quick fixes that, if executed simultaneously, will instantly catapult the 49ers into 2017 contention.
Jan 1, 2017; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (9) passes past the rush of Philadelphia Eagles defensive end Vinny Curry (75) and defensive end Connor Barwin (98) during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Trade for Quarterback Tony Romo
Why not kick things off with something noncontroversial?
Sure, Tony Romo is aging. Alright, he’s downright ancient in NFL terms. He turns 37 this year, meaning that he only has one or two seasons left, at best. Couple that with his prolific injury history (Romo has only played a full 16 games in five of his ten pro seasons, and only five games total over the past two), and you may already be questioning why it was that you bothered clicking through to the second page of this article.
However, Romo is an accomplished passer. His lifetime QB rating of 97.1 is head and shoulders above anything that the 49ers had on their roster last year (Kaepernick is tops with a lifetime 88.9).
Moreover, the free agent market for quarterbacks (given an almost certain franchise tag on Washington Redskins QB Kirk Cousins) is more desolate than deep space.
A list that could truly make a grown fan cry.
Amongst that motley crew of castoffs and ne’er-do-wells, Romo looks like a real prize. And he has the veteran savvy to be both a lead voice in the locker room as well as a mentor to the next up and coming 49ers passer (more on that later).
Admittedly, Romo’s post-season record is nothing to make fans turn cartwheels (2-4). However, this is an attempt to make the 49ers instantly viable again, not to necessarily win Super Bowl LII.
Further, Romo has been part of a few playoff heartbreakers, including the controversial divisional playoff game against the Packers in 2015. Had just one or two more balls bounced his way, Romo’s post-season career might be cast in an entirely different light.
Either way, he still boasts a career 93.0 QB rating in the playoffs, with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions.
The NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport has already tweeted that moving Romo is a high priority for the Cowboys. And although Romo would undoubtedly rather play for an immediate playoff contender, like the Denver Broncos, Rapoport also suggests that they, for one, are less interested in him.
What should the 49ers give up for “To-Ro”? Certainly not the farm. However, it might not be necessary to do so. Perhaps a third rounder this year and a later pick in the 2018 draft.
The bigger issue is Romo’s contract. He has three years and a whopping $54 million remaining on his current deal, which translates into a $24 million dollar cap hit in 2017.
That’s a huge number, and one that Romo will likely have to renegotiate if he wants to step onto the gridiron anywhere next year.
December 11, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) during the fourth quarter against the New York Jets at Levi’s Stadium. The Jets defeated the 49ers 23-17 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
However, who has more cap room than the 49ers? York and Co. decided to parlay a huge cap surplus into 2017.
Per Over The Cap, the Niners have roughly $80 million in cap room heading into next year, and that’s before the inevitable release of Colin Kaepernick ($16 million of cap space in ’17).
So, despite the many reasons that Romo might not want to join the Red and Gold, ability to pay him, is not one of them.
Let’s assume the 49ers can land Romo for a more palatable, albeit lofty, $18 million in current cap space, and they’ve got their first piece of their insta-rebuild in place.
Other Names to Consider: Drew Brees and Philip Rivers
Sep 19, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (17) carries the ball as Philadelphia Eagles free safety Jalen Mills (31) defends during the second half at Soldier Field. Philadelphia won 29-14. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Sign Free Agent Wide Receiver Alshon Jeffery
Alshon Jeffery is an elite talent at a position of irrefutable need for the 49ers.
Per Pro Football Focus, Jeffery graded behind only Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown and Atlanta’s Julio Jones in the 2015 season. Not bad company, at all.
Despite playing a mere 516 snaps that year, he finished with 807 yards and four touchdowns (or a 94.2 overall score).
His 2016 campaign was not nearly as successful, largely hampered by injury and a four-game PED suspension. However, these are just the sort of hiccups that could cause his free-agency value to dip, making it a choice time for a team like the 49ers to snap him up.
Forget “winning with class,” Jed. Let’s try winning with talent for a change.
Nov 27, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith (82) during the second half against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins won 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Jeffery is by far the best wide receiver option in this year’s free agent crop and would make a fantastic, big-bodied compliment to a QB like Romo.
Additionally, his No. 1 receiver status would draw scads of defensive attention, meaning the 49ers might actually begin to reap some value from the $6.5 million a year that they’re paying fellow WR Torrey Smith.
Signing Jeffrey would represent another sizeable hit to the Niners cap space. Let’s presume it’s a cool $15 million per year.
So, with Romo and Jeffrey in tow, the Niners will have committed $33 million in cap space. That’s the “bad” news. The good news? They’d still have almost $50 million remaining.
Other Names to Consider: DeSean Jackson and Michael Floyd
Sep 17, 2016; Stanford, CA, USA; Stanford Cardinal running back Christian McCaffrey (5) catches a pass and rushes for a touchdown against the USC Trojans during the first half of a NCAA football game at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Trade Back for Christian McCaffrey
Bay Area sports fans are well aware of McCaffrey and his phenomenally diverse skill set. A combination running back, slot receiver and explosive return man, he is the ideal Swiss Army knife for a talent-starved roster like the 49ers.
McCaffrey is most remembered for his sophomore year at Stanford, where he posted an eye-popping 3,864 yards and 15 total touchdowns, breaking the college single-season yardage record previously held by Barry Sanders.
However, his 2016 season was nothing to sneeze at either: 2,327 yards and a career-best 16 TDs.
The Niners need a special teams stand-out like nobody’s business. WR Bruce Ellington is a bust, veteran Jeremy Kerley is merely average in this capacity, and nothing about their current return game is even the slightest bit inspiring (special teams ranked No. 17 overall by Football Outsiders, with negative scores for both punt and kick returns).
Nov 20, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman (11) carries the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium. The New England Patriots defeated the San Francisco 49ers 30-17. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Adding McCaffrey gives the Niners a truly electric threat in the “forgotten phase” of the game. Moreover, consider his potential as a slot receiver: think a quicker, bigger-bodied Julian Edelman. Of course, he could also be worked into the backfield, either to spell lead runner Carlos Hyde or as a dual threat in his own right.
And we know how much the 49ers like drafting players from “The Tree.”
Romo, Jeffrey, McCaffrey… this offense is already lightyears ahead of the squad that took the field last season.
But, beyond the obvious infusion of talent that McCaffrey embodies, he also brings something equally juicy with him in this scenario: picks.
McCaffrey is currently mocked to move somewhere between 15 and 20 in the draft. That means the 49ers would have plenty of potential trading partners and likely rake in a fistful of picks in an exchange.
Here are the teams that currently hold the picks in that range, many of which could use a top five pick to bolster their respective rosters:
Virtually all of these teams could benefit from a move to No. 2, and San Francisco is, of course, not limited to trading with just these teams.
If, for example, the New Orleans Saints want to bound to the top of the board in order to nab their perceived heir apparent to Drew Brees, the 49ers could still grab McCaffrey at No. 11 and a bounty of picks, or trade back twice for even more draft juice.
Last year’s trade by Philadelphia for the No. 2 pick (used to select QB Carson Wentz) yielded the Cleveland Browns the No. 8 overall pick, plus a third and fourth round pick in that same draft. In addition, the Browns’ haul included Philly’s 2017 first round pick and their second rounder in 2018.
That’s the sort of future talent bank that San Francisco desperately needs.
Assuming that the 49ers are able to broker a similar deal, they will have plenty of trade stock for our fourth quick fix.
Dec 27, 2015; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets defensive end Sheldon Richardson (91) sacks New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium. New York Jets defeat the New England Patriots 26-20 in OT. Mandatory Credit: Jim O’Connor-USA TODAY Sports
Trade Picks for a Pass Rusher (and Sign One Too)
With their current draft picks (10 total in 2017) and the booty garnered from the McCaffrey deal, the 49ers would be in prime position to trade for either a proven edge rusher or another formidable force in the middle.
The Niners struggles to generate backfield pressure are well documented, having finished near the bottom of the pass rushing fold in each of the seasons following the unceremonious loss of the Smiths (Justin and Aldon). Last season, the 49ers tallied a modest 33 sacks, landing them at No. 23 overall.
In order to vault San Francisco back into contention, the front seven needs to take pressure off of their crop of capable, up-and-coming cornerbacks.
To make this move a reality, the Niners will need to identify a trading partner with both the talent to give and the desire to dump salary.
Proven names that could be obtained in such a trade include:
And the likely cost for many of these players: one, maybe, two mid to late-round picks.
Of these choices, the Jets seem like the team most fixin’ to horse trade. With three interior linemen who can all get after the passer, and a $7 million cap deficit, New York seems primed to send one of their studs packing.
Assuming New York opts to move the least productive of the bunch (from a sack perspective), the 49ers would end up with DT Sheldon Richardson. Landing Richardson would represent a meaningful upgrade in the middle for the Niners, and it would save Gang Green about $4 million in cap space this year.
But why stop with a lone trade when trying to bolster one of the league’s worst pass rushes? The 49ers have enough cap space to sign a proven free agent sack master too.
Oct 23, 2016; London, United Kingdom; Los Angeles Rams tackle Greg Robinson (73) defends against New York Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul (90) during game 16 of the NFL International Series at Twickenham Statdium. The Giants defeated the Rams 17-10. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Of the available names, Chandler Jones is the most consistent standout. However, the 49ers would be well-served to sign any of these hired guns.
For the sake of discussion, let’s assume they can strike a deal with veteran defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul.
With the additions of Sheldon Richardson and Jason Pierre-Paul, and hopefully the rejuvenation of OLB Aaron Lynch, the 49ers would have the makings of a top ten pass rush.
The cost for both Richardson and Pierre-Paul? Nothing too hairy. Likely another $12 million or so.
Sep 10, 2016; Tempe, AZ, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes II (5) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Sun Devil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Round Out the Roster in the Draft
So with this flurry of trading and free agency acquisitions, what else do the 49ers need?
A quarterback of the future would be nice, and with no true consensus No. 1 quarterback in the draft, there may very well be a gem or two buried in the middle rounds. Spending a third or fourth rounder on a guy like Cal’s Davis Webb or Virginia Tech’s Jerod Evans seems reasonable.
In fact, taking two QBs shouldn’t be out of the question. Odds are that one of the top four quarterbacking prospects (DeShaun Watson, DeShone Kizer, Mitch Trubisky, or Patrick Mahomes) falls into the second round. The 49ers could grab the odd man out and then use one of their remaining eight picks (that’s without any picks from the McCaffery trade detailed previously) in order to take a late round flyer.
How about Ole Miss ACL-recoveree Chad Kelly? What?! Too soon?
Other areas where the 49ers could inject some youthful fortification into the mix include:
Offense: Center, Guard, Running Back, Wide Receiver, Kicker (although drafting a kicker seems rather fool hardy in the post-Pinion era)
Defense: Inside and Outside linebacker, Safety, Nose Tackle
Jun 8, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers linebackers huddle during minicamp at the San Francisco 49ers Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
The Results
It would take a ton of wrangling, and perhaps even a resurrected Harry Houdini as GM, but if the 49ers were able to execute the aforementioned quick fixes, they’d be right back in the thick of things come September.
Here’s what their revised depth charts would look like:
All in all, an instantly competitive squad that’s head and shoulders above the rag-tag bunch of ruffians the Niners trotted onto the gridiron in 2016.
More from Niner Noise
And although many of these moves may seem like reaches, all a good GM would need is for one or two of these deals to hit, and the rest could fall like dominoes. Nothing convinces free-agents to jump on the bandwagon like other free agents signing up before them.
What’s more, even after making all of the moves described above, and signing their rookie draft class, the 49ers are liable to have $20 to $30 million in cap space to either grab a free agent offensive lineman or two, or to simply squirrel away for next season.
The real issue? Convincing some of these big ticket names that, after riding a winning coach out on the rails and then bumbling through two subsequent coaching missteps, 49ers brass has the smarts to get it right this time around.
A tall order indeed, and one not to be envied. Guess Niner fans better hope this new GM has more than just a pulse.