Miami Dolphins

Question of the Week: Has the Sun Already Set on the Dolphins' Season?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

The law of averages tells us that a team with an 0-2 start has just a 12% chance of making the playoffs. So, does that mean the sun has already set on the 2016 Miami Dolphins?

If one believes what the mathematicians, some members of the media, and a small but vocal faction of Dolphins fans have to say, the answer to that question would be an unequivocal “Yes”. Fortunately for the rest of us, the players are under no obligation to listen to their critics……and quit. In fact, based on what we have seen thus far, there isn’t even the slightest reason to believe they will.

While the frustration expressed on social media by these “doom and gloom” fans is understandable, given that Miami has not won a playoff game since 2000, their cries of “Same old Dolphins!” and “Another losing season! I guarantee it!” are as over-the-top premature as those of “Pie in the Sky” fans who annually predict a Super Bowl championship before even a single down of football has been played.

Now, that isn’t to say there is no reason for concern. The Dolphins have had their share of problems on both sides of the ball over the first two games. Proof of this is evident in the lists below, which highlight the most glaring issues.

Week One Negatives Against Seattle

Week Two Negatives Against New England

Needless to say, with an 0-2 record and a laundry list of issues to resolve, there is no denying the Dolphins are not yet the team their fan base hoped for and, as a result, they will have their hands full turning things around. Regardless, there are plenty of reasons to believe the team can do just that. To that point, what follows is an equally eye-catching list of positives from the first two games that should give any reasonable fan hope that Miami can still make a run this season.

Week One Positives Against Seattle

Week Two Positives Against New England

What these contradictory lists tell us is that, thus far, the Dolphins have been remarkably inconsistent, exactly what one should expect from a young team learning a new system under a rookie head coach and a first-year defensive coordinator. Like a newborn colt rising on wobbly legs for the very first time, there have been more than a few awkward moments, along with instances of absolute grace. In fact, on more than one occasion, both have occurred simultaneously. Take, for example, Tannehill’s laser-accurate bomb to Kenny Stills against the Legion of Boom. The throw was a thing of beauty, while the drop was about as ugly a blunder as one will see in the NFL.

So, given the inconsistencies, why should anyone believe the Dolphins can clean up their game? Well, for starters, Gase seems well on his way to accomplishing his primary goal. After two games, Ryan Tannehill is ranked as the #10 QB in the NFL by Pro Football Focus (PFF), and his run grade is the second highest at that position behind only Aaron Rodgers. The reason this is important is because, unlike the traditional quarterback rating system, PFF doesn’t penalize Tannehill for dropped passes, or the mistakes of other players, therefore, it is a more accurate barometer of his actual play.

Beyond the numbers, the former Texas A&M standout has shown extraordinary toughness and the kind of fighting spirit many thought he lacked. Furthermore, he has picked up the “No Huddle” offense in record time, done a terrific job of audibling at the line, and shown real guts and leadership.

There is, of course, a slice of the Miami fan base that vehemently disagrees with this assertion, and argue that Tannehill will never develop into a top ten QB. They proclaim that the fifth-year quarterback hasn’t shown any improvement at all. A few even insist that he has regressed.

Adam Gase has heard these so-called “Tannehill Haters”, as they have been dubbed by mainstream fans, and according to the Miami Herald’s Adam Beasley, rejects their point of view.

“I don’t know how much more he can really step up considering that he’s doing everything right now that we need him to do,” insisted the rookie head coach while speaking to the media. “It’s just that we need every guy to pull their weight.”

Gase is, of course, correct, at least in the sense that Tannehill can’t do it all alone. So, with that in mind, what follows are five basic areas where the Dolphins need to improve.

The keys to achieving success in these five areas are consistency and efficiency. However, it is important to note that the need for a more stable attack doesn’t just apply to the players. The Dolphins’ coaching staff needs to raise the level of their play calling, especially early in games, and make quicker adjustments on the defensive side of the ball. More important still, they must devise schemes to better mask the team’s weaknesses.

If the Miami Dolphins can steadily eliminate the inconsistencies, they should be able to contend against anyone. If you doubt that, simply consider what this team would look like if it could muster the defensive effort it put forth in the first half of the Seattle game, and the offensive display they flashed during the second half of the New England contest….into a full 60 minutes.

With that in mind, let us take a realistic look at their remaining schedule and analyze the level of competition on a scale of 1 to 5, with a 1 being a bottom dweller and a 5 a legitimate Super Bowl Contender.

Opponent Rating Proj. Record

CLE @ MIA	1	1-2
MIA @ CIN	4	1-3
TEN @ MIA	3	2-3
PIT @ MIA	5	2-4
BUF @ MIA	2	3-4
BYE
NYJ @ MIA	4	3-5
MIA @ SD	3	4-5
MIA @ LA	2	5-5
SF @ MIA	2	6-5
MIA @ BAL	3	7-5
ARI @ MIA	5	7-6
MIA @ NYJ	4	8-6
MIA @ BUF	2	9-6
NE @ MIA	5	10-6

If the Dolphins start picking up speed after the bye, and winning the games they should win, the season could come down to splitting their games with the Jets, and a week 17 showdown with the Patriots, who, despite their early season dominance, haven’t won in south Florida since Tannehill’s rookie season. If that scenario sounds like a stretch, consider that the Dolphins beat both the Bengals and Steelers under Joe Philbin, so the idea of a split with the Jets under Gase is far from impossible. Beyond that, injuries, weather and odd bounces of the ball could play in Miami’s favor.

Regardless of what may or may not come to pass, for the moment, all we can do is take stock of the team’s current situation, and the truth is, it isn’t as dire as some fear. After all, the Dolphins weren’t expected to beat either Seattle or New England, two legitimate top echelon teams, on the road, so there is no need to hit the panic button as of yet. That said, should they lose to the lowly Browns at home, there will be little choice but to accept 2016 as a rebuilding year.

Then again, should Miami beat Cleveland, and after that, go on to upset the Bengals, making a 10-6 record all the more possible, even the team’s most jaded supporters will have to take notice. For if they don’t, then, at the very least, they should reexamine why they call themselves Dolphins’ fans at all.