Atlanta Falcons

NFL Week 7 Picks: Survivor Pool Stone Cold Locks

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 2:09 a.m. ET

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If by some miracle, you’ve staved off elimination in your survivor pool, here are some stone cold locks for NFL Week 7.

Odds are if you’re reading this article, you somehow didn’t pick the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Miami Dolphins like I suggested in my stone cold locks for Week 6. You’re a better person than most. Who could’ve ever predicted that Jay Ajayi would run for 200+ yards and that Steel Town’s high-flying aerial attack wouldn’t get off the ground?

However, I still went 4-1 with my picks. My warning against picking the Seattle Seahawks over the Atlanta Falcons felt justified as Hotlanta nearly pulled off the upset special. Had pass interference been called with under two minutes remaining on that deep ball to Julio Jones, the Dirty Birds would’ve stolen a solid road win.

This week, there’s another pick you should’ve passed on: the Green Bay Packers over the Chicago Bears. The Pack were favored by more than a touchdown at home on Thursday Night Football. However, they’re so banged up at running back (Eddie Lacy and James Starks are both out) and even at wide receiver at well that I would’ve warned against it. It felt like a bit of a trap game

Of course, one offensive explosion from Rodgers and the Packers passing game and one Hoyer broken arm later, I would’ve been wrong. I stand by the fact that you should have been staying away in any Survivor Pool.

So, with Thursday night in our rear view mirror, let’s look at the teams destined for victory in NFL Week 7.

Oct 16, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton (14) prepares to make a pass during the third quarter against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns

The Bungles got stomped by the freight train that is the New England Patriots in Week 6 while the Browns went another week without a win, suffering their sixth straight loss to open the season.

Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon would’ve been eligible to return from suspension, but decided to enter rehab instead. Rookie wideout Corey Coleman is out with a broken hand. Stars Joe Thomas, Joe Haden, and multi-purpose weapon Terrelle Pryor are all listed as questionable. Though winless, rookie quarterback Cody Kessler has been somewhat promising, completing more than 65 percent of passes and earning a QB rating of 93.8.

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Cincy’s season has only been slightly better than Believeland’s. After nearly earning their first postseason win since 1990, the Bengals were expected to win the AFC North in 2016. So far, not so much. Granted, their four losses have come against arguably the top four playoff-caliber teams, but their schedule doesn’t get much easier after the Browns. Could they be looking ahead?

Andy Dalton and the Bengals pass offense have been near the top of the league in yardage, but have failed to punch the ball into the end zone as they’re 25th overall in touchdowns through the air. That should change against a Browns defense that’s giving up the second most passing touchdowns in the league.

The Bengals rush offense has been well below average, but should see a boost against a Cleveland run defense that has allowed the fifth most yardage on the ground in the NFL.

Once again, if the Browns have any chance of an upset, they’ll need to do what they do: ground and pound with Isaiah Crowell. The Cincinnati run defense has been uncharacteristically awful, allowing the fifth most yardage league-wide. If the Browns can eat up the clock and keep A.J. Green off the field and keep the deficit to within a score, they’ll have a chance. But Green should have a career day, still.

The Bengals are favored by 9.5 points at home.

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Atlanta Falcons over San Diego Chargers

I’ll be honest. I was very close to telling you to shun the Falcons. Of this week’s picks, this one is my least “stone cold”. More like “lukewarm oatmeal.” Why? That Seattle game had to take a lot out of Atlanta, physically and emotionally. They return home—where they lost to Tampa Bay in Week 1—to face a San Diego team that is 11 points away from being 5-1 and could be undefeated if it weren’t for a colossal meltdown in Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chargers are also fresh off a huge win against the Denver Broncos, so their spirits have to be high. San Diego’s high-powered offense has scored the third most points overall as Philip Rivers has thrown the fifth most touchdowns in the league. However, the Chargers might not have team receiving leader Travis Benjamin, who’s listed as questionable with a leg injury. Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry will have to step up in his absence. They should find success against a Falcons pass defense that ranks in the bottom of the league in yards allowed and touchdowns.

This should be a high-scoring affair as both defenses have been allowing a lot of yards and points. While the Falcons pass defense has been porous, their run defense could be considered average. Still, if San Diego can get into goal line situations, Melvin Gordon could have a substantial day for fantasy owners.

Atlanta’s offense has been the NFL’s most potent in terms of scoring thanks to Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Tevin Coleman, and Mohamed Sanu. Just as Melvin Gordon should profit from goal-to-go scenarios, so should Coleman and Devonta Freeman.

This smells like another gut-wrenching defeat for the Chargers.

The Falcons are favored by 6.5 points at home.

Oct 16, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) passes the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals during the first quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports

New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers

We go from the most uncertain of “locks” to the strongest. As mentioned, the Pats pulverized the Bengals in Week 6, winning by three scores. This week, they face a Steelers team that’s reeling from an improbable loss to the Dolphins and a torn meniscus for Ben Roethlisberger. The injury means Big Ben won’t suit up for the game against New England and could miss as many as six weeks.

Fourth-year quarterback Landry Jones will start in Ben’s place. Jones’ track record hasn’t been great. He’s completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes for his career and has a career quarterback rating of 77.3, well below the league average. Pittsburgh will have to lean heavily on the likes of Le’Veon Bell. New England’s run defense is tough, but the Steelers could find yardage through the air if Jones is competent. With the Pats rolling coverage to Antonio Brown, that could mean a lot of screens, check downs, and dump passes to Bell out of the backfield.

On the other hand, the Patriots offense has been firing on all cylinders. Tom Brady has bombarded the opposition. The formidable duo of Martellus Bennett and Rob Gronkowski appears to be taking shape. Add in the grinding running style of LeGarrette Blount plus the pass-catching abilities presented by James White and New England seems unstoppable.

The Pittsburgh pass defense has been in the NFL’s basement in yards allowed and touchdowns. They’ll continue to get gouged against the Pats.

The Patriots are favored by 7 points on the road.

Oct 16, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) warms up prior to the game against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

Denver Broncos over Houston Texans

The prodigal son returns? Eh, not so much. Former Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler will square up against his old squad in his old stomping grounds as Houston’s signal caller. Denver linebacker Brandon Marshall has gone so far as to say his defense is “going to kill him.”

Despite the admirable game-winning comeback against the Colts, there have been grumblings about Osweiler from Houston camp. Reports have indicated a rift between the Texans starter and head coach Bill O’Brien. Will that discord motivate Osweiler or tear the team apart? This matchup should be an exceptional test.

Something’s got to give. Houston’s offense has been towards the bottom of the league in points scored and yardage. Most of that blame falls on the passing attack. Osweiler has completed fewer than 60 percent of his attempts and has a quarterback rating of 74.1. Admittedly, Brock’s had to face three of the toughest pass defenses in the Chiefs, Titans, and Vikings, but Houston still expected more.

The Texans offense could get a boost in the form of Will Fuller, who might return from a hamstring injury. That should take some pressure off DeAndre Hopkins, whose output thus far has been less than stellar. Brock should also rely on Lamar Miller and emerging tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz as outlet valves when downfield options are taken away. Texans fans must be wondering what’s going on with Jaelen Strong and Braxton Miller. Perhaps they could be the answer in spread sets?

Houston’s defense has been amazing against the pass, but awful against the run. The Broncos have been slightly below average running the ball, so the Texans could stack the box and force Trevor Siemian to beat them. With the exception of the game against the Bengals and the start of the Bucs game, Siemian has been subpar at best. The second-year quarterback averaged fewer than five yards per pass attempt against a very beatable Chargers pass defense last week. The task will only get tougher against Houston.

Fortunately for Denver, the Broncos pass defense is among the best in the league and should be able to befuddle and blast Brock a mile high.

The Broncos are favored by 7.5 points at home.

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