National Football League

NFL Week 3 Predictions: Full Picks Against the Spread

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Picks against the spread for every game in NFL Week 3 of the 2016 season

One week removed from the NFL turning into a carpool lane to the trainer’s table, NFL Week 3 is upon us. There were an absolutely absurd amount of injuries that occurred last week that shook up the league as a whole. That’s because these weren’t fourth-string linebackers going down in garbage time. A bevy of starting running backs, quarterbacks, and other key contributors succumbed to the injury bug last week.

Subsequently, we might know less than we even did going into Week 1 about some of the teams in the league. The first two weeks of the season have felt notoriously hard to gauge. Squads that looked like juggernauts in Week 1 faltered in their encore effort last week. The same can be said for teams who struggled in their opener and turned it around in Week 2.

Thus, you have to believe that the oddsmakers have sorted all of this out to get the lines right coming into Week 3. They did a great job of that last week in my first go-round of making picks. I went right down the middle at 8-8, but that’s not good enough. Strive to be exceptional—or something else motivational like that.

With that in mind, lets foray into the third week of the 2016 NFL season and make some picks. These are the picks against the spread for every NFL Week 3 game, starting with Thursday Night Football. All lines are via Westgate.

2016 Record: 8-8 (Did not pick Week 1)

Sep 18, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett (7) adjusts his helmet during the third quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium. The New England Patriots won 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-1)

This line has been all over the place as the Houston Texans are favored by a point at some books. However, Westgate has the New England Patriots favored at home, so that’s what we’re rolling with.

Taking the Patriots at home is normally easy money. Bill Belichick winning at home is almost a formality at this point in his illustrious tenure. Of course, this is far from normal territory that he’s in. Everyone knows by now that Jacoby Brissett will be the starting quarterback for the Patriots in this Week 3 matchup against the Texans. As the rookie heads under-center, that raises a ton of questions.

While starting during the suspension-related absence of Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo made believers of me and just about everyone else watching him. However, I’m far more skeptical that’s going to happen with Brissett. Not only has he not had ample time learning behind Brady, but he was never that impressive in college. Subsequently, throwing him up against the Houston defense and J.J. Watt seems like a less-than-ideal situation for New England.

Belichick could once again make me look like a complete idiot, but I’m going with the fighting Brock Lobsters in this one.

Pick: Houston Texans +1

Sep 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals free safety Tyrann Mathieu (32) celebrates during the second half of the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals defeat the Buccaneers 40-7. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Cardinals (-4) at Buffalo Bills

Just as I and many others thought they would, the Arizona Cardinals made a statement after losing in Week 1. They absolutely shredded the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in every facet of the game. Hell hath no fury like a Bruce Arians scorned. Now they’ll be on the road traveling to the East Coast to take on the winless Buffalo Bills.

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Rex Ryan’s group have looked uninspiring, to put it nicely, in their two losses. They lost a grind-it-out affair against a suspect Baltimore Ravens team and then needed big and broken plays to just hang with the New York Jets last Thursday. Meanwhile, this Cardinals team seems centered and refocused on their Super Bowl aspirations. The Red Birds should win this one the road—and by a lot.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -4

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)

I hate absolutely everything about this line and this game. That has nothing to do with the quality of the game, but more with the fact that I don’t know what to do with it. The Oakland Raiders should be able to score on anyone, but they can’t stop anyone either. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans have promise, but I’m not sure they’re fully at a place offensively to take advantage of the Raiders’ shortcomings in the defense department.

It’s no secret that I’ve been touting the Raiders since the offseason. And though I feel substantially worse about that through two weeks, I’m going to stick to my guns. I think Oakland goes on the road and makes a statement against this young Titans team.

Pick: Oakland Raiders +1.5

Aug 26, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Cody Kessler (5) is sacked by Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive end Kourtnei Brown (90) during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeated the Cleveland Browns 30-13. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-9.5)

Guys, who else is ready to embrace the incoming Cody Kessler era for the Cleveland Browns? Guys? All I hear is crickets.

As if things couldn’t get worse for the Browns in 2016 (or better since they are seemingly tanking), they’re now starting their third-string rookie quarterback in Week 3. Yes, this is their third starter at the position in as many weeks. That’s not a great sign, regardless. Throw in the fact that their No. 1 receiving option in rookie Corey Coleman is now out for 4-6 weeks and it looks even worse. Oh, and lest we forget the fact that this Miami Dolphins defense might actually be better than people think. The home team should win this one by two touchdowns or more.

Pick: Miami Dolphins -9.5

Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If there’s anyone still left on the Jacksonville Jaguars bandwagon, my guess would be that they’ve got one foot hanging off of the back at this point. Gus Bradley’s bunch have been disappointing through two weeks, going winless thus far. The offense has shown the flashes we’ve expected, but calling their defense Swiss cheese is an insult to cheese.

However, the Ravens are one of the most questionable 2-0 teams in recent memory. They’ve notched two victories over the Bills and Browns, but that’s something most teams in the league are going to do this season. Jacksonville might not be much better than those teams, but I think they are indeed better. Subsequently, give me the Jags as home dogs in this matchup.

Pick: Jaguars -1

Sep 18, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian (13) hands the ball off to running back Devontae Booker (23) in the third quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

Of all of the lines that you’re going to see this week, this one might be the most baffling of all. Yes, the Green Bay Packers are at Lambeau Field. Moreover, the Detroit Lions are indeed coming off a brutal-to-watch loss to the Titans. However, neither of these teams have been anything resembling impressive through the first two weeks of the season. So why that constitutes one of them being favored by more than a touchdown is beyond me.

Call me crazy, but I don’t think this Packers team is very good right now. Barring major changes for this game in the play-calling or in the performance of the defense, I have this one being a much closer affair than the oddsmakers. Thus, I’m taking the road underdogs.

Pick: Detroit Lions +7.5

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

Oh great; another game and spread that is right in that sweet spot where I don’t know what in the hell to do with it. Despite the fact that the Trevor Siemian show still rolls on for the Denver Broncos, he’s been stable enough to let that defense win games. Meanwhile, the Bengals have looked good—but not quite as good as they did last season. So with Denver on the road in Cincy, what do I do?

In the end, it just feels wrong to bet against the Broncos defense whether it’s on the road or at home. Von Miller is looking like a legitimate MVP candidate at this point and that unit should be able to cause problems for Andy Dalton and company. Though it’s probably a poor decision, I’m taking another road dog.

Pick: Broncos +3.5

Sep 18, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford (8) against the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings defeated the Packers 17-14. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-7)

Everyone is looking at this game with one thought: the Minnesota Vikings have no chance without Adrian Peterson. I don’t know if you haven’t been paying attention, but Peterson was abysmal for the Vikings in his two starts. Thus, I’m not sure his loss really means that much. Minnesota thrives off of their defense and, as fate would have it, Sam Bradford looks tailor-made to lead this team.

I still think the Carolina Panthers pull out the victory here at home. However, this line is way too high for a team that looked as good as the Vikings did in Week 2 as they beat the Packers. In other news, I’m almost surely going to regret taking all of these underdogs on the road.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings +7

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-4.5)

Spoiler alert, but last year might have been an aberration for the Washington Redskins. Kirk Cousins has been quite dreadful through two games in 2016. They don’t have any semblance of a running game. And all of the money that they spent on Josh Norman and the defense isn’t paying a whole lot of dividends.

Meanwhile, the not-so-small fortune that the New York Giants spent on their defense seems to have worked wonders. The Giants look like the clear NFC East favorites right now and that’s with their offense not even fully hitting its stride just yet. This one is going to turn into a blowout quite quickly, in favor of the home team.

Pick: New York Giants -4.5

Sep 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) drops back to pass against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals won 40-7. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)

Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers need to have quickly forgotten the roughing up that they took at the hands of the Cardinals last week. To me, that game said far more about Arizona than it did about a promising young team out of the NFC South. I think they’ll have the opportunity to bounce back, though, with the Los Angeles Rams coming to town.

Despite sporting a .500 record through two games—in true Jeff Fisher fashion—the Rams have yet to score an offensive touchdown in 2016. While the Bucs defense has been inconsistent and got torched by the Cards, Case Keenum would be doing good to torch a high school defense at this point given what he’s shown in LA. I think this is a nice bounce-back game for Tampa, who wins comfortably at home.

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5.5

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)

Speaking of offenses that have been terrible, give it up for your 2016 Seattle Seahawks. For all the praise and adulation for Russell Wilson coming into this year, the Seattle offense has been and eyesore. Sure, the star quarterback is nursing a sprained ankle, but that still doesn’t explain how a unit with that much talent has produced only one offensive touchdown this season. Don’t forget that they also lost to the freaking Rams last week.

I think the Seahawks defense is enough to terrorize Blaine Gabbert and the San Francisco 49ers in this matchup to where Seattle wins at home. However, this spread is complete insanity. A team averaging 10.5 points per game shouldn’t be favored by almost that many points.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +9.5

Sep 18, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) scrambles during the second half of the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Qualcomm Stadium. San Diego won 38-14. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Though people are always going to be hard on them, I actually like this New York Jets football team. We know what their defense is capable of and I think their offense actually can be consistently what it was for them last year. On the other hand, I have no idea what to make of the Kansas City Chiefs. They had to come from behind in dramatic fashion to win in Week 1 and then looked lost against the Houston Texans in a losing effort last time out.

However, I’m not going to over-think this pick. The Chiefs have enough talent on both sides of the ball to frustrate this Jets team. With that in play and with Kansas City being at vaunted Arrowhead Stadium, I’m going to roll with the Chiefs and hope that the one time I didn’t pick a road dog this week doesn’t come back to bite me.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Okay, so I’m back to loving underdogs on the road. Now it might seem a bit absurd to love a San Diego Chargers team traveling east without Keenan Allen or Danny Woodhead. However, the Chargers defense has been far better than expected this season. Enough so that I think they can at least slow down Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts offense. Moreover, Melvin Gordon and Philip Rivers (no matter who he’s throwing to) have shown enough through two games to make me think they can pick apart this terrible Indy defense. Thus, I think San Diego wins outright.

Pick: San Diego Chargers +3

Sep 11, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (11) reacts after throwing a touchdown pass to wide receiver Nelson Agholor (not pictured) in the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia defeated Cleveland 29-10. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

In case you haven’t heard a million times by now, Carson Wentz is actually good. Yes, he might have been playing against the Browns and Chicago Bears in his first two NFL starts for the Philadelphia Eagles, but he showed the poise and talent to be a potential franchise-quarterback in this league. That said, there are growing pains with even the most talented of rookies and I think those start with the Pittsburgh Steelers rolling into town on Sunday afternoon.

This Steelers defense looks substantially improved in comparison to last season. And we all know what the Pittsburgh offense is capable of, namely putting up huge numbers against any defense that they’re up against. In the end, I don’t think Wentz and the Eagles are quite ready for a test like the Steelers.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

Even the most ardent detractors from rookie quarterback Dak Prescott have to think that this line looks great for the home team. With the youngster at quarterback, Dallas has remained competent offensively. More impressive, though, is that their defense has looked competent as well, something not everyone thought would be possible given their lack of talent and plethora of suspensions.

On the other sideline, the visiting Chicago Bears are starting Brian Hoyer at quarterback. Then you have the fact that Danny Trevathan, Lamarr Houston, and possible Kyle Fuller again will all not be in action against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Taking Dallas at home is the easy and smart play here.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -7.5

Sep 11, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) carries the ball to score a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at the Georgia Dome. The Buccaneers won 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3)

We finish things off with Monday Night Football as the Atlanta Falcons travel to the Superdome to take on their NFC South rivals in the New Orleans Saints. The home team is favored, as they should be given their record in the dome over the years with Drew Brees at the helm. What that record doesn’t account for, though, is the fact that the Saints can’t stop absolutely anyone on the defensive side of the ball.

Say what you will about Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense coming off of a disappointing 2015 campaign, but they’ve looked much better to start this year. Tevin Coleman has been a real spark plug in the running game and is now going to see more work. Moreover, even the best defensive backs in the league can’t cover Julio Jones. And now he’s up against a New Orleans secondary that couldn’t cover the AARP All-Stars.

Frankly, I don’t think either of these teams are complete. Subsequently, this game likely devolves into a shootout. However, I have more faith in a Dan Quinn defense mustering up a couple of stops than I do the Saints defense doing the same. Thus, give me one last road underdog, just to really put the cherry on top of these Week 3 picks.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3

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