National Football League

Look Between the Lines: Handicapping the NFL's Week 5 slate

Published Oct. 2, 2014 12:04 p.m. ET

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James Hernandez has more than 15 years in the sports handicapping industry and will contribute weekly for FOXSports.com as our betting expert. Have comments or questions? Make sure to email him at jameshernandez1981@gmail.com.

During the NFL season, I will attempt to guide you to the winner's circle more often than not. I consider a combination of statistical trends, my own personal player ranking system and meticulous attention to various wagering techniques that allow me to analyze and formulate a plan of attack.

Each week I will post my five favorite plays in order of preference, best on top and so on. All right, let's get into it:

Green Bay Packers (-8) over Minnesota Vikings

Until last week, home teams were undefeated on Thursday nights and you can expect that trend to get back on track when the Vikings invade Lambeau Field for this NFC North showdown. Minnesota comes to town sporting a 1-7-1 record vs. Green Bay since the start of the 2010 season.

The only time the Vikings covered the spread during this time was last November's 26-26 tie when Rodgers was out with a shoulder injury. Green Bay has averaged 32 points per contest in its last nine meetings between these rivals while Minnesota has managed an average of just 20 points. As long as Jordy Nelson (33 receptions, 459 yards, 3 TD) and Randall Cobb (21 receptions, 239 yards and 5 TD) continue to strike fear in the hearts of opposing secondaries, it's only a matter of time until Eddie Lacy joins the party and adds yet another layer to this potent Green Bay offensive attack.

Expect Mike McCarthy to improve on his stellar mark of 35-17 against the spread vs. divisional opponents as his team puts together consecutive wins for the first time this season and propels itself back into the thick of the NFC North race.

Buffalo Bills (+7.5) over Detroit Lions

Despite consecutive losses to the Chargers and Texans, along with the turmoil and controversy surrounding the benching of second-year quarterback EJ Manuel, the Bills still find themselves right in the thick of the AFC East race. Kyle Orton may not be the long-term solution the Bills Mafia has been in search of since Jim Kelly departed, but he is a reliable veteran quarterback capable of keeping the Bills alive in a division race that seems destined to go down to the wire.

For the second week in a row, Matthew Stafford will be staring down one of the game's elite defensive lines as well as a ball-hawking secondary that matches up very well with the Lions' receivers, especially since Megatron is hobbled and still not 100 percent. Look for an inspired effort on both sides of the ball for Buffalo as the Bills rally around their coach's decision to bench the young signal-caller in favor of the veteran and hang right with Detroit in what is sure to be an entertaining matchup from start to finish.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) over Baltimore Ravens

It appears as if the Indianapolis Colts have righted the ship after an 0-2 start. This is due in large part to Andrew Luck and his stellar play under center. Indy now features the top offense in the NFL (34 ppg) and has run through its last two opponents like a hot knife through butter.

Baltimore's defense will present some unique challenges -- including its ability to get after the quarterback like few other teams in the league -- but as the saying goes, revenge is a dish best served cold. You have to believe that the Colts' young signal-caller has been champing at the bit to finally get a chance to avenge his 2012 wild-card loss in Charm City.

Indy's defensive pass rush receives a shot in the arm as its defensive MVP from a season ago -- Robert Mathis -- returns from his four-game suspension for taking a banned substance. This is an early statement game for both teams as each looks to solidify itself as a legitimate contender in the AFC. Lay the points here as the Colts run their winning streak to three games and capture a huge win against a team they could likely see again come January.

New England Patriots (+1.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

After Monday night's drubbing at Arrowhead Stadium, the Pats attempt to pick up the pieces as they prepare to face the most complete team in the AFC. New England is 8-2 all-time at home vs. the Bengals and Tom Brady is 12-8 in 20 games played on Sunday night.

I understand these are not your older brother's Pats, however no one in the NFL makes the kind of game-to-game adjustments that Belichick does. He will surely have his team's attention on both sides of the ball after they were gashed for 41 points by a relentless Kansas City offense and limited to just 14 points by an opportunistic Chiefs defense.

This spot seems eerily similar to last year's game in Foxborough when the Pats were struggling a bit and the oddsmakers made them a home underdog for the first time since 2005 against Denver. Brady and Belichick were able to pull out a thrilling come-from-behind win after trailing by as many as 17 points. Call me crazy, but I am not willing to throw dirt on the Hoodie and the Golden Boy just yet, so I will take the home dog to cash here despite their recent offensive struggles.

Chicago Bears (+3) over Carolina Panthers

The Bears are looking to start 3-0 on the road for the first time since 2006 as they attempt to hand Carolina a third straight defeat.

With a laundry list of tailback injuries the Panthers will look to Darrin Reaves, an undrafted rookie out of UAB, along with Chris Ogbonnaya and Fozzy Whittaker to spark a running game that ranks 28th in the NFL.

At this point in the year, it's hard to get a read on Cam Newton and his health. He is nursing various injuries and lacking that initial burst when he runs due to his surgically repaired ankle. The recovery process seems to be slower than Cam and the Panthers training staff originally envisioned. The absence of Greg Hardy has crippled the effectiveness of the Carolina pass rush and instead of generating consistent pressure with their front four, opposing offensive lines have been able to keep the Panthers pass rush in check.