National Football League

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins: Prediction, odds, picks

Published Nov. 3, 2023 3:37 p.m. ET

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The Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) are favored by 2.5 points versus the Miami Dolphins (6-2) on November 5, starting at 9:30 AM ET, airing on NFL Network. 

The Chiefs surprisingly suffered a 24-9 defeat at the hands of the Denver Broncos, while the Dolphins took care of the New England Patriots 31-17. 

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Chiefs and Dolphins — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from Jason McIntyre. 

Chiefs vs. Dolphins Odds & Betting Lines

Chiefs vs. Dolphins Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Kansas City (-2.5) 
• Pick OU: Under (51) 
• Prediction: Kansas City 26 - Miami 23

Pick via Fox Sportrs Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre 

Yes, the Chiefs looked terrible last week, but we called the spot in this column. 

Trends are just data points, and it’s tough to ignore some of these: Patrick Mahomes when favored by less than 3: 19-6-1 against the spread (ATS); KC is 12-2 ATS as a favorite of less than three in neutral site/road games. 

Of course, I’m concerned that the Dolphins have been in Germany all week, and KC just arrived today. History says the team that arrives overseas early has a body clock advantage. Late arrival has usually translated to slow starts, and you can’t do that against this Miami offense, or you’re playing catch-up. 

Of all the great matchups in this game (Trent McDuffie vs. Tyreek Hill; Jalen Ramsey vs Travis Kelce, etc), keep an eye on center. If Liam Eichenberg has to start for the injured Connor Williams, there’s a massive edge to Chris Jones in the middle, as the Notre Dame converted guard has graded out as the 38th out of 38 centers. 

PICK: Chiefs (-2) to win by more than 2 points

Why Chiefs vs. Dolphins is the best bet in Week 9

How to Watch Kansas City vs. Miami

• Game Date: Sunday, November 5, 2023
• Time: 9:30 AM ET
• Venue: Deutsche Bank Park
• Location: Frankfurt-Flughafen, Germany
• TV: Watch on NFL Network

Chiefs vs. Dolphins Recent Matchups

• Miami owns a 3-2 record against Kansas City in their last five matchups.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Miami has tallied 110 points against Kansas City, while allowing only 107 points.

Kansas City Betting Info

• Against the spread, Kansas City is 5-3-0 this year.
• The Chiefs are 5-3 ATS this season when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites.
• Kansas City games this year have gone over the total in two out of eight opportunities (25%).
• The Chiefs have compiled a 6-2 record in games they played as the moneyline favorite (winning 75% of those games).
• When it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -148 or shorter, Kansas City has a record of 6-2 (75%).
• Based on this contest's moneyline, the Chiefs' implied win probability is 59.7%.

Chiefs Stats

Kansas City's Key Players

Offense

• Patrick Mahomes II has thrown for 2,258 yards (third in the NFL), 15 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and eight interceptions this year. He is averaging 282.3 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt, while completing 68.8% of his attempts.
• He has added 234 rushing yards (29.3 per game) without a touchdown on the ground.
• Isiah Pacheco averages 4.3 yards per carry (16th in the NFL) and 57.4 yards per game, and has 459 total rushing yards. He has recorded three rushing TDs this season.
• Pacheco has 24 receptions on 27 targets for 160 yards. He has one receiving TD.
• In the passing attack, Travis Kelce, has contributed with 583 receiving yards and four touchdowns after hauling in 54 balls (eighth in the NFL) on 68 targets. Per game, he's averaging 83.3 yards and 7.7 receptions over seven games.
• Rashee Rice averages 3.8 receptions and 45.1 yards per game, and has 361 total receiving yards and 30 catches. He's gotten 39 total targets, and has caught three touchdown passes.

Defense

• On defense for the Chiefs, Drue Tranquill has put up 47 tackles, three TFL, and 3.5 sacks in 2023.
• George Karlaftis has 28 tackles, four TFL, and six sacks this season.
• This season, Trent McDuffie has put up 40 tackles.
• This season, Justin Reid has 39 tackles, one TFL, one sack, and one interception. He's third on the Chiefs in tackles.

Miami Betting Info

• Miami has covered the spread six times in eight games with a set total.
• This season, the Dolphins have just one against the spread win in three games as an underdog of 2.5 points or more.
• This season, five Miami games have gone over the point total.
• This season, the Dolphins have been the underdog three times and won one of those games.
• Miami has played as an underdog of +124 or more once this season and won that game.
• The implied probability of a win by the Dolphins based on the moneyline is 44.6%.

Dolphins Stats

Miami's Key Players

Offense

• Tua Tagovailoa has passed for 2,416 yards this year (to rank first in the NFL), with 18 touchdowns (first in the NFL) and seven interceptions. He is completing 70.4% of his attempts while averaging 302 yards per game and 8.8 per attempt.
• Tyreek Hill has 1,014 receiving yards (first in the NFL) and eight touchdowns (first in the NFL) on 61 receptions (second in the NFL), while being targeted 87 times.
• So far this season in eight games, Raheem Mostert has racked up 520 rushing yards (leading the Dolphins and sixth in the NFL) and scored 10 rushing touchdowns. He averages 65 yards per game and 5.4 per carry (second in the NFL).
• Mostert has helped out in the receiving game, putting up 151 receiving yards (18.9 per game) on 19 catches (2.4 per game), while being targeted 23 times. He has two receiving touchdowns.
• Jaylen Waddle has been targeted 53 times, resulting in 37 catches for 480 yards .

Defense

• In 2023, Bradley Chubb has amassed five sacks to go with seven TFL and 37 tackles over eight games.
• Jevon Holland has 51 tackles, two TFL, and three passes defended.
• In the 2023 season, Andrew Van Ginkel has 32 tackles, seven TFL, and four sacks through eight games.
• Christian Wilkins has 34 tackles, four TFL, 4.5 sacks, and two passes defended.

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NFL - Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs - 11/05/2023

Jason McIntyre