Fantasy Football: Winning Daily Fantasy Football Picks for NFL Week 3

Niner Noise fantasy football blogger JD Leidy uses FantasyOMatic’s algorithm along with player pricing from FanDuel to select a winning Week 3 daily lineup.

Oct 11, 2015; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) throws the ball in the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Well, there’s no mincing words about it. Our first algorithmically-selected, value-optimized fantasy football team was a out-and-out bust.

Our vaunted Andrew Luck to T.Y. Hilton connection severely missed the mark, while only three of our remaining players finished with double digits.

Our alternate Week 2 lineup didn’t fare much better, with our Matthew Stafford-Eric Ebron stack disappointing almost as badly as our Luck-Hilton duo:

These Week 2 lineups were not selected for any specific FanDuel contest.

However, unless they were employed in a head-to-head matchup versus a lower-order mammal (you know like an aardvark or a bandicoot; not a whale, though… definitely nothing as intelligent as a whale, and certainly not a chimp), it’s not likely either would have made you a penny.

In my experience, winning FanDuel lineups tend to hover in the 150 point range for Guaranteed Payout Pools and 110 for 50/50 contests. So, we’ve got some serious work to do in Week 3.

But, let’s not throw the proverbial baby out with the bath water. Even the best algorithms will not deliver 100 percent of the time.

Sep 18, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) is helped off the field following an injury during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings defeated the Packers 17-14. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Besides, rebirth, renewal and a dollop of eternal hope springing are all part of the beauty of Daily Fantasy Football (DFF). You screw up, you shake it off and you start anew the following week.

There are no Adrian Petersons in DFF, friends.  At least not for more than one week.

The Rules

Recall the fantasy football methodology at work here.

Each week, player rankings from the proprietary (and free… let’s not forget free) fantasy football player ranking algorithm, FantasyOMatic (FOM), are cross-referenced with player pricing data from popular daily fantasy sports site, FanDuel.

The following rules are then painstakingly applied in order to arrive at an algorithmically-selected, value-optimized team for the week:

It’s easy. And since it was so amazingly successful last week, why not do it all over again?

Aug 20, 2016; Orchard Park, NY, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) talks with New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham (13) during the second half against the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. Bills beat the Giants 21-0. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Stacks

The first task at hand is to select a highly-ranked, and ideally lower-priced, quarterback-receiver stack.

Again, the logic behind stacks is the multiplier effect. Pick the right stack and an owner will be rewarded with double yards, double scores… basically double points.

Of course, miss on your stacks, and it can easily kill your fantasy football week. That’s the reason we’re leveraging the algorithm for player selection, in theory anyhow (C’mon… it was only one week!).

Above is the Week 3 quarterback data. Andrew Luck again appears to be a good relative value play and I like his match-up versus San Diego a lot more than last week’s trip to Denver.

Luck. Philip Rivers. Laser show.

But, unfortunately, none of Luck’s receivers made the FOM top ten list:

So Luck has officially run out on himself. Yes, I know. Good thing rotten tomatoes can’t be hurled directly through the computer screen.

We do, however, have the makings of a great QB-WR stack in Eli Manning and either Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ) or Sterling Shepard.

OBJ is the safer, yet more expensive, bet. Whereas, an Eli Manning-Shepard stack affords the opportunity to select some other very high-profile (and in turn, higher-priced) players.

Before setting our stacks, however, we should also review the possibilities presented by the other receiving group that takes the field each week, the tight ends.

Bupkis. No connections to highly-ranked QBs on the FOM top ten tight end list.

So, we’re sticking to QB-WR stacks this week, three of them to be exact: Manning-Beckham, Manning-Shepard and Derek Carr-Michael Crabtree.

I realize that Carr is the tenth ranked QB by FOM. But, Crabtree represents a distinct value at $6,400 and the Week 3 FOM top ten quarterback/receiver tables simply don’t contain many viable pairings.

Sep 18, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram (22) runs during the first quarter against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Select the Top Three

Next, it’s time to choose a FantasyOMatic (FOM) top-ranked wide receiver, running back and defense.

Subsequently, we’ll flesh out the rest of our lineup card with the best possible remaining FOM candidates, given FanDuel’s overarching salary constraint of $60,000.

Here are Week 3’s top-rated runners per FOM:

At No. 2 overall, running back Mark Ingram is an absolute steal for $6,900.

Now, before I am buried in a deluge of “Ingram? Are you kidding?!” comments, recall what we’re doing here.

We’re using an algorithm, something that all of the best DFF players reputedly do, in order to rank, and in turn select, our players.

I realize Ingram’s off to a tepid start. That’s already reflected in his fantasy football price. That’s also why very few people will be likely to start him this week.

Using the algorithm helps leech the emotion from our decision-making process.

Otherwise, we’re bound to simply pick the biggest, boldest names in any given week, potentially leaving us exposed to two common DFF pitfalls:

So, Ingram… Let’s use him in our more expensive stacks, i.e. Manning-Beckham Jr. and Carr-Crabtree.

Sep 18, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back DeAngelo Williams (34) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals during the fourth quarter at Heinz Field.The Pittsburgh Steelers won 24-16. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

However, in our Manning-Shepard stack, we have a bit more price room, so let’s pencil in FOM’s No. 1 ranked back, DeAngelo Williams, as our featured runner.

Turning to wide receiver, our Manning-Beckham Jr. stack already boasts a high-profile pass catcher. But our other stacks are still short a marquee WR.

It couldn’t be easier for Carr-Crabtree. The top receiving name on the FOM list is Odell Beckham Jr. Let’s slot him in.

For our Manning-Shepard stack, I like No. 2 ranked receiver, Julio Jones, against New Orleans. It’s a choice match-up for a top-tier talent, without question.

However, his $9,300 price doesn’t leave us much wiggle room for other players when combined with top-ranked running back, DeAngelo Williams.

Trust me. I’ve already run the numbers, and if we want as many top ten FOM players as possible, this combo just doesn’t add up.

Sep 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson (31) runs with the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals won 40-7. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

However, if we plug Ingram back into the mix, we can pair him with Arizona Cardinals RB David Johnson, which also feels quite baller.

Lastly, it’s time to pick the best offens: a great defense.

The top two ranked defenses by FOM are the Arizona Cardinals and the (gulp) Atlanta Falcons.

With fingers crossed and FOM as our guide, let’s use Atlanta’s defense across the board.

That noted, Arizona does feel a whole lot more solid, and is the No. 1 ranked defense for the week.

So, let’s keep the Cardinals D in the back of our minds as we complete our lineups. Perhaps we’ll be able to squeeze them in somewhere.

Sep 11, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws against the New Orleans Saints during the second half of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Raiders defeated the Saints 35-34. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Progress Check

Let’s take inventory.

So far, our lineups are constituted as such:

Rounding It Out

What’s left is to leverage the FOM top ten lists to fill in the blanks.

Beginning with the most complete stack, Manning-Shepard, let’s return to tight end.

TEs Greg Olsen and Delaine Walker top the chart. However, with RB David Johnson and WR Julio Jones devouring roughly 30 percent of the total salary cap, we’re going to have to look elsewhere.

The third tight end on the list is Jacksonville’s Julius Thomas. He’s been producing so far this season, and at $800 less than Delanie Walker, he also represents good relative value. Cha-Ching.

To round out this fantasy football lineup, we simply need to select a third wideout and a kicker.

Sep 18, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Mike Wallace (17) celebrates with fans after scoring a touchdown during the first half against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Beginning with the former, WR Mike Wallace at No. 3 on the FOM charts and a price tag of $6,500 is a screaming deal.

If you read this week’s Startable, Ownable and Eyeable, you know I’ve been high on Wallace for several weeks. So much so, let’s plug him in across all of our lineups.

Post-Wallace, our remaining cap room for the Manning-Shepard stack is $4,600.

This amount rules out any of the highest priced legs. And recall, FOM doesn’t rank kickers. So we’re left with a different divining rod here, our gut.

Scanning the list of available names, San Diego Chargers K Josh Lambo’s stands out. I like the scoring potential of the matchup with Indianapolis, and his $4,500 ticket fits the bill. Done and done.

Turning to our next most complete stack, Carr-Crabtree, we need an RB2 and a TE.

We also need a kicker, but my philosophy for DFF is to always select a kicker last.

As detailed in my 10 Winning Draft Day Strategies piece, there is potential fantasy football value in trying to identify an above-average kicker for season-long play. However, in DFF, identifying the top kicker of the week tends to be a total craps shoot.

With a quick scan of the FOM tables, it’s clear that Jacksonville’s T.J. Yeldon represents a tremendous fantasy find. Slotting him in at $6,600, leaves us a surplus of $12,600.

We could take TE Greg Olsen at $7,800 and a cheap kicker like Lambo, and be done with it.

Recall, however, the desire to revisit the Arizona Cardinals defense as a possible play. It’s ranked No. 1 by FOM, but requires a loftier spend at $5,100.

In order to make Arizona work, we’ll have to pass on Olsen, and look down the TE list.

Sep 18, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Tennessee Titans tight end Delanie Walker (82) makes a touchdown reception during the fourth quarter against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Titans win 16-15. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

We won’t have to go far, though. TE Delanie Walker is FOM’s No. 2 ranked tight end. He doesn’t represent much of a drop-off from Olsen production-wise, and he’s $900 less, leaving us room to make everything else mesh. Two down.

Our last stack, Manning-Beckham Jr., needs quite a bit.

Let’s default to Yeldon as our RB2. We’ve already identified him as a great value.

Next, we’ll go for broke on tight end, and select Greg Olsen here. That leaves us $11,600 with which to work.

Remember that the cheapest kickers on FanDuel are $4,500. So, we’re looking for a top-ranked WR3 that costs in the $7,000 range.

How about FOM’s No. 6 ranked WR and OBJ’s old college running mate, Jarvis Landry, for that exact amount? Check.

Sticking with Lambo as our boot, our stacks are now complete.

Jan 24, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) scores a touchdown pas Arizona Cardinals defense during the third quarter in the NFC Championship football game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

The Final Lineups

So, here are our algorithmically-selected, value-optimized DFF squads for Week 3 of the 2016 NFL season:

Each was selected by cross-referencing projected player performance data from fantasy football algorithm FantasyOMatic with player pricing from FanDuel.

Quarterback-Receiver stacks were then created, using our data to identify relative value. We then selected a top-tier running back, wide receiver and/or defense, depending upon the fit.

Lastly, we put the finishing touches on each team by using our experience, intuition and FOM’s top ten rankings for each remaining open position.

Which One’s Best?

Who knows, really? I don’t love FOM’s Atlanta D call, so perhaps the Carr-Crabtree stack is best.

That said, Eli Manning has passed for at least 250 yards and two touchdowns in each of his past four games versus Washington.

More from Niner Noise

I love OBJ, but there’s always the Josh Norman factor. So perhaps the best stack is Eli-Shepard, with the apparent upgrade at RB2 to David Johnson over T.J. Yeldon.

In the end, it’s all up to you. However, as I noted last week, FanDuel has myriad affordable options. Sun-Mon contests start at as little as $2.

So, why not blow through all the milk money and try all three? That’s what I’m inclined to do.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this week’s daily fantasy football installment. Even more so, I hope you enjoy the results come Monday evening.

All statistics, records, quotes and accolades courtesy of ESPN.com, FantasyOMatic.com, FanDuel.com and NFL.com unless otherwise indicated.

This article originally appeared on