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Fantasy Football: Week 5 Daily Fantasy Football Picks

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Niner Noise fantasy football blogger JD Leidy uses FantasyOMatic’s algorithm along with player pricing from FanDuel to select a winning Week 5 daily lineup.

Oct 2, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) celebrates his touchdown catch with quarterback Matt Ryan (2) in the fourth quarter of their game against the Carolina Panthers at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons won 48-33. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Yes… I’m a week behind. So glad someone noticed, actually. I was beginning to wonder if anyone was even reading these columns.

Here are the results for the algorithmically-selected, value-optimized DFF squads from Week 3, derived through combined analysis of FantasyOMatic and FanDuel data… that is, if one can remember back that far.

Recall from my Week 3 piece, we are looking for points in the 150 range for FanDuel’s guaranteed payout pools (GPPs) and 110 for 50/50 contests.

In GPP, our FOM/FanDuel lineups missed the mark. However, the Eli Manning-Odell Beckham Jr. stack cleared our 50/50 hurdle, and the Eli Manning-Sterling Shepard stack was very close. Wildly better than our Week 2 results.

As noted above, due to personal circumstances, I did not build a Week 4 lineup.

However, if I had, I’m sure it would have been populated with WRs Michael Crabtree and A.J. Green, RBs DeMarco Murray and Ezekiel Elliot, TE Jordan Reed, K Mike Nugent, the Los Angeles Rams defense, and a Matt Ryan-Julio Jones stack… or something like that.

Just for fun, here’s how that lineup would have scored last week:

Not bad, eh? Of course, this team was not only cherry-picked from last week’s results, it was also $2,800 over the salary cap.

Regardless, it’s fun to take a look at what the best lineup would have scored from time to time, especially in a big week like Week 4.

OK. Back to reality, if there is such a thing in fantasy football.

Recall that we are using the free FantasyOMatic (FOM) algorithm to rank our players across each positional category. We are then cross-referencing those players with FanDuel pricing data to arrive at an algorithmically-selected, value-optimized team (or teams, depending).

As a further review, here is the general roster construction methodology:

Those are the steps. So let’s get steppin’.

Oct 2, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Oakland Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree (15) celebrates his game winning touchdown catch against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium with quarterback Derek Carr (4) and running back Jalen Richard (30). Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Stacks

Stacks, i.e. QB and receiver combos, work fabulously, as in the case of Atlanta’s QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones last week. However, miss on your stack, and you’re probably not bound for DFF glory.

So let’s construct our stack(s) first, beginning with this week’s QB data:

Right out of the gate, it’s clear that the FOM algorithm ranks Oakland Raiders QB Derek Carr highly yet again. Other names that make the value list are QBs Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz, and Cody Kessler.

So, we now have four QB targets. How do their respective receivers, both wideouts and tight ends, measure up according to FOM?

Alright. Now we’re cooking. Derek Carr has Oakland WR Michael Crabtree in the FOM top ten list. Given Carr’s No. 2 positional ranking, a Carr-Crabtree stack makes some sense.

Of course the odds of the two of them doing better than last week are pretty slim. Regardless, in this column, we follow the algorithm, dutifully and without reservation.

Jul 28, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jordan Matthews (81) reacts to a play during training camp at NovaCare Complex. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The next highest ranked QBs are Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz. Perusing the receiving tables, both have WR options, and Wentz has TE Zach Ertz as a possible pairing as well.

That noted, WR Jordan Matthews is the highest ranked of all of the value-priced receivers. So, let’s do a Wentz-Matthews stack too.

Lastly, I can’t possibly pass on the opportunity to marry last year’s fantasy freak, TE and No. 1 Week 5 positional rank, Gary Barnidge, with his dirt cheap signal caller, Cody Kessler.

OK, so our three stacks are Carr-Crabtree, Wentz-Matthews, and Kessler-Barnidge.

Now let’s have some fun.

Oct 2, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy (25) gets past New England Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler (21) for a touchdown during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Select the Top Three

Next, it’s time to choose an FOM top-ranked wide receiver, running back and defense.

Subsequently, we’ll flesh out the rest of our lineup card with the best possible remaining FOM candidates, given FanDuel’s salary cap of $60,000.

Here are Week 5’s top-rated tailbacks per FantasyOMatic:

RB LeSean McCoy draws the vaunted Los Angeles Rams defense this Sunday. Is the FOM algorithm concerned? No. So why should we be?

For each of our lineups, let’s go with McCoy in the one hole.

Turning to a top-end receiver selection, we have the following options:

Mr. Beckham Jr. is ranked No. 1 (for both project performance and explosive tantrums), so let’s slot him in as our WR1.

In terms of defenses, FOM once again has the Atlanta Falcons as the most highly-ranked unit. I know… I know. At Denver? The Falcons??

Aug 26, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Cleveland Browns tight end Gary Barnidge (82) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers works out prior to the game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

But, Atlanta did put up 11 points last time we used them, and the whole purpose of using the FOM algorithm to select our team(s) is… wait for it… to use the FOM algorithm. So we’ll slot Atlanta in as our omnibus defense.

Lastly, our Kessler-Barnidge stack is the only one with a top-flight tight end in place.

For the other two lineups, let’s go with our old pal, Tennessee Titans TE Delanie Walker.

Progress Check

We’ve made a few selections so far, and here is how our squads are shaping up:

So, for our Carr-Crabtree and Wentz-Matthews stacks, we’ve already burned through two-thirds of our salary cap. That means we’ll have to be judicious in selecting the rest of our players in order to squeak in under $60,000.

By contrast, our Kessler-Barnidge pairing has plenty of room to add in high-priced talent, so let’s go for broke with that one.

Sep 26, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman (24) carries the ball to score a touchdown during the second quarter of a game against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Rounding It Out

What’s left is to complete the grids, leveraging the FOM top ten lists as our guide.

Both Carr-Crabtree and Wentz-Matthews need an RB2, a WR3, and a K in order to be complete. Let’s begin by selecting another runner:

As mentioned, we have less than $20,000 with which to work, and three slots to fill. So we can either spend our bank on a higher-ranked (and priced) receiver or a running back, but not both.

Oct 2, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown (84) fields a punt against the Kansas City Chiefs during the third quarter at Heinz Field. The Steelers won 43-14. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Carr-Crabtree stack is the most spendy so far. In turn, let’s slot in No. 10 ranked RB, Jerik McKinnon as our second running back. Doing so, gives us plenty of salary latitude when selecting our last receiver, with only Pittsburgh Steelers WR Antonio Brown being out of our reach.

So, let’s plug No. 3 ranked WR Jordan Matthews in as our last piece, and our Carr-Crabtree lineup is done.

Turning to our Wentz-Matthews stack, there is a $600 price differential between Wentz and Carr. In turn, we have a bit more wiggle room when fleshing out our lineup.

Let’s upgrade our RB2 in this instance to the fifth-ranked RB for Week 5 according to FOM, Atlanta Falcons RB Devonta Freeman.

Freeman’s $7,400 price tag means that we’ll have to choose a less expensive option for our final wideout. Enter “The Ancient One,” Steve Smith Sr.

Two lineups in the books.

Oct 2, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Denver Broncos running back C.J. Anderson (22) works out prior to the game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Our final stack, Kessler-Barnidge, has plenty of cap space. So, let’s plug in FOM’s No. 2 ranked RB C.J. Anderson as our second running back and WR Antonio Brown as our WR2.

Adding those two into the mix really bent our budget, meaning that we’ll have to get creative with our remaining two positions.

For WR3, let’s go with FOM’s receiver No. 10 WR Danny Amendola. At just $5,300 he slots in nicely.

Our remaining budget is now $4,500, still leaving us enough room to select one of five inexpensive kickers. I’m partial to Mason Crosby, mostly because I think he has a cool name, so let’s select him.

Remember, picking kickers in DFF is a blindfolded dart toss, in my opinion. So any $4,500 kicker will do.

Sep 25, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (11) reacts after his 73 yard touchdown pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Lineups

So, there you have it. Three algorithmically-selected, value-optimized DFF squads for Week 5 of the 2016 NFL season:

Each was selected by cross-referencing player performance data from fantasy football algorithm FantasyOMatic with player pricing from FanDuel.

Quarterback-Receiver stacks were then created, using our data to identify relative value. We then selected a top-tier running back, wide receiver and/or defense, depending upon the fit. Lastly, we put the finishing touches on each team by using our experience, intuition and FOM’s top ten rankings for each remaining open position.

So which of these lineups looks the juiciest? It’s really anybody’s guess.

If I were to rank them, I’d be inclined to go as they appear left to right: Carr-Crabtree first, Wentz-Matthews second, and Kessler-Barnidge coming in third.