Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The fortunes of the Dallas Cowboys can be summed up in five words: How good is Dak Prescott?

With Tony Romo already out 6-10 weeks with a broken vertebrae in his back, Prescott is stepping in front and center. Prescott, a fourth-round rookie out of Mississippi State, has been incredible throughout the preseason. But can he translate that to regular-season success?

Romo was sidelined for all but four games of the 2015 season with a pair of broken clavicles. When Romo was the starter, Dallas went 3-1. Without him, the Cowboys were 1-11.

At 36 years old, Romo is entering the twilight of his career. Despite throwing for more than 34,000 yards and 247 touchdowns since becoming the starter in 2006, the Cowboys have never reached the NFC Championship game under Romo’s guise.

If Prescott is going to hold down the fort while Romo’s out, he will need to rely heavily on the stars around him.

The Cowboys have elite players all over the offense, starting with Romo but also including receivers Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams, tight end Jason Witten and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott. However, the strength of the unit is the offensive line, which features a trio of first-round picks in center Travis Frederick, left tackle Tyron Smith and right guard Zack Martin.

Should Romo and Prescott combine to give Dallas good quarterback play, the Cowboys might be able to take advantage of a last-place schedule and win their second NFC East title in three years. If not, the defensive shortcoming come into focus.

Owner/general manager Jerry Jones loves to take risks on talented players with character concerns. This offseason, each of those dice rolls came up snake eyes. Dallas will begin the season without defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence, who is suspended for the first four games after violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Meanwhile, linebackers Rolando McClain and Randy Gregory are both slated to miss 10 games, crippling the second level of the defense.

Simply put, the front seven lacks any semblance of playmaking ability. Sean Lee is a quality middle linebacker, albeit with a lengthy injury history. Still, Lee isn’t a threat to rush the passer from the interior, having notched only 2.5 sacks in his career. Lawrence comfortably led the team with eight sacks in 2015. Without him, defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli must scheme blitz packages to confuse opposing offensive lines.

The secondary is not much better. Jones decided on Elliott with the fourth-overall pick, rather than stud corner/safety Jalen Ramsey, in a move that defies logic. Dallas is going into the season relying heavily on both Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne, two corners who have thus far been busts

The Cowboys are rife with holes in the roster, but an easy schedule and some talented playmakers could propel them into the playoffs. Should they get there, the question becomes how far can this one-dimensional team go?

Schedule

Week 1 – New York Giants
Week 2 – at Washington Redskins
Week 3 – Chicago Bears (Sun. night)
Week 4 – at San Francisco 49ers
Week 5 – Cincinnati Bengals
Week 6 – at Green Bay Packers
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – Philadelphia Eagles (Sun. night)
Week 9 – at Cleveland Browns
Week 10 – at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 11 – Baltimore Ravens
Week 12 – Washington Redskins (Thanksgiving)
Week 13 – at Minnesota Vikings (Thurs.)
Week 14 – at New York Giants (Sun. night)
Week 15 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 16 – Detroit Lions (Mon.)
Week 17 – at Philadelphia Eagles

Facing a cupcake schedule, there are some pockets where the Cowboys could make some moves. The end of the schedule is particularly easy, as Dallas gets Tampa Bay and Detroit at home before taking on the Eagles in Week 17.

While there isn’t a really tough stretch in this docket, the middle could pose some challenges. Dallas has to play at Pittsburgh and then hosts Baltimore, which could be much-improved. After getting the Redskins on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys have two road dates with the Vikings and Giants in primetime.

Draft class

Round 1 (4) – Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
Round 2 (34) – Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame
Round 3 (67) – Maliek Collins, DT, Nebraska
Round 4 (101) – Charles Tapper, DE, Oklahoma
Round 4 (135) – Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State
Round 6 (189) – Anthony Brown, CB, Purdue
Round 6 (212) – Kavon Frazier, S, Central Michigan
Round 6 (216) – Darius Jackson, RB, Eastern Michigan
Round 6 (217) – Rico Gathers, TE, Baylor

Dallas took a huge swing at upgrading an already good offense, taking Elliott with the fourth-overall pick. The Cowboys could have tried to upgrade a porous secondary with the selection of Jalen Ramsey but instead went for the playmaker Jerry Jones so coveted.

As for the rest of the class, nobody will be starting right away. Smith is coming off a brutal knee injury and Prescott will be groomed as a potential quarterback of the future. The selection of Frazier could pay immediate dividends, with the defensive backfield needing help.

Offseason moves

Acquired

Alfred Morris, RB (2 years, $5.5 million)

Lost

Jeremy Mincey, DE (Unsigned)
Greg Hardy, DE (Unsigned)

X-Factor

Will the Cowboys get anything out of their currently suspended players? Rolando McClain won’t be playing the first 10 games of the season, while both Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence are banned from the first quarter of the campaign.

Dallas has a poor defense already, and with those suspensions, there is a real question if the Cowboys can win consistently. While the offense is good when healthy, the defense could be absolutely deplorable if Gregory, Lawrence and McClain produce nothing.

Bottom Line

If Romo comes back and remains healthy, the Cowboys are going to be in contention for the NFC East and would likely be seen as the favorites. Dallas has a great offensive line and a quality set of playmkaers, but the defense is going to keep this team from any shot of a Super Bowl.

At some point, the Cowboys need to retool this team and start looking at getting younger while also building up both sides of the ball. Until that happens, this group has the potential to be exciting and explosive, but won’t win anything significant.