Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears: Is John Fox Good or Just Lucky?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Sep 11, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Chicago Bears head coach John Fox during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The arguments are already starting to flare up. Is John Fox really a good head coach or was he more a benefactor of good luck? Chicago Bears fans wonder.

For the first time in his entire coaching career, Fox has watched his team deliver a second-straight 0-2 start to the regular season. It blows a big hole in the theory that his teams are always better in the second years of his tenure. Now his quarterback and half his entire defense are nursing tough injuries. Suddenly not only is the season in jeopardy, but some feel so is Fox’s job.

Hard to believe considering what he’s accomplished. One would think he’d get the benefit of the doubt. Should he though? There is no denying the success Fox has had elsewhere, but in looking back over it all there is one question that deserves asking. Was the success due to his own skill or a rare amount of good luck?

That is what this article will try to determine.

Evidence of skill

2003 Panthers

His finest work was with the Carolina Panthers team in 2003. This was a team that went 1-15 just two years prior and played in a series of tight games all year. They went 4-1 in overtime including the playoffs. Keep in mind they did all this with a man who had never started before at quarterback in Jake Delhomme. To top it off they scored more points against a Bill Belichick Patriots defense than any other team in the Super Bowl.

Rapid turnarounds

It’s not easy for a coach to make a team used to losing understand how to win again. That takes a certain special kind of motivational ability. Something players have said Fox has in abundance. He turned the 1-15 Panthers of 2001 into a 7-9 team his first season in charge. In Denver he took over a 4-12 dispirited Broncos squad and pushed them to 8-8 in 2011, even winning a playoff game. That’s outstanding work.

Tebowmania

Delving even further to that 2011 year makes it an even more impressive feat. Not only did Fox bench his starting quarterback Kyle Orton during the season, he replaced him with Tim Tebow. Overcoming obvious flaws as a passer, Fox managed to craft a game plan around the spirited second-year QB that involved lots of running the football and tough defense. Combined with Tebow’s late game magic it worked. Denver somehow won the division.

November 9, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Denver Broncos head coach John Fox (right) celebrates with quarterback Peyton Manning (18) after a touchdown during the third quarter against the Oakland Raiders at O.co Coliseum. The Broncos defeated the Raiders 41-17. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Evidence of luck

The #2 picks

His most successful stops to date were in Carolina and Denver where Fox had almost instant success. What many don’t remember is the fact he took over teams that held the #2 overall picks in the draft. This enabled him to draft Julius Peppers in 2002 and Von Miller in 2011. These are superstar players who likely end up in the Hall of Fame someday. These are the types of talents that turn franchises around. So Fox certainly had a good sense of timing.

Peyton Manning

Or how about the fact he ended up taking over the Broncos the year right before Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning decides to leave Indianapolis for a new team. Not only that but his team has the money to get him and the team president in John Elway (a Hall of Fame quarterback) to help convince him. Don’t forget Manning carried a lot of those Colts teams by himself for years. This was a golden ticket for a head coach to be ensured successful seasons at least for two or three years.

Easy roads to Super Bowl

Last comes the subject of his Super Bowl trips. He’s one of just a handful of coaches in history who have reached at least two championship games. The fact he lost both is a red flag in itself, but also examine the roads he took to them. Let’s review:

2003

2013

Those are certainly some fortunate bounces Fox was able to take full advantage of to “pad” his overall record.

Sep 19, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) and quarterback Brian Hoyer (2) takes the field prior to the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Conclusion:

The argument boils down to this. Those in favor of Fox believe he hasn’t been given enough time to build this team the right away. Don’t forget the Chicago Bears were the oldest roster in the league just last year. Now they’re the 10th youngest. That kind of turnover takes time to sort out. Meanwhile those who want him out have their own complaints. He’s too conservative. His strength and conditioning regimens seem to lead to more injuries than normal. He has a poor sense of the moment in tight games.

Bottom line is his team has lost two winnable games following ugly second half collapses. These were performances that dredged up memories of 2014, something Bears fans never want to relive. Maybe for the first time people are seeing Fox get handed a roster that wasn’t ready to win yet and he’s struggling like any average coach. Perhaps good luck had a bigger part in his instant success at Carolina and Denver than people realized. If that’s the case then what do the Bears do?

How the final 14 games of 2016 play out will tell a huge part of that story.