National Football League

Backing Brady Over Brees In Week 9

Updated Jul. 14, 2021 4:33 p.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre

Divisional matchups are the theme in Week 9, with six on the slate highlighted by the Sunday Night Football revenge game between Tom Brady and (probably?) Drew Brees.

In the first half of the season, divisional underdogs have barked loudly, going 25-14 against the spread, including 11-3 in the last two weeks. One of the two divisional underdogs this week has even moved to a one-point favorite, and we broke it down below.

One word of caution: The sports books now have half a season of data on these teams, and the lines are going to be tight. There will be little or no movement with the exception of COVID (see Ravens) or cluster injuries (49ers). Let’s get to the picks, with all odds via FOX Bet.

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GAME OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) vs. New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees has been limited in practice this week with an ailing shoulder. Is it because he’s 41, or perhaps some gamesmanship from Sean Payton? Jameis Winston starting on SNF against his former team in a game with massive playoff implications in the NFC would be delightful.

If Brees starts, he may finally have Michael Thomas (ankle), and he will have Emmanuel Sanders (COVID). Tom Brady will counter that with Antonio Brown’s debut, and possibly the return of Chris Godwin.

Tampa’s No. 1 rated defense stole the show against Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay. If Alvin Kamara can’t get loose against the league’s top run defense, will Brees will able to go down the field against a defense that held him to season-low totals of 160 yards and 5.3 yards per attempt? The guess here is no.

IF IT FEELS TO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT ALWAYS IS

Pittsburgh Steelers (-14) at Dallas Cowboys: This game’s great for your survivor league, but under no circumstances should you be laying two TDs here with the unbeaten Steelers against a practice squad QB (Cooper Rush) who last threw an NFL pass in 2017.

The Steelers are unbeaten and unquestionably the better team, but this is their third straight road game. Mike Tomlin is fantastic in the underdog role, but as a favorite on the road against teams over .500, he’s just 15-28 ATS in his career. Pass.

JOHN ELWAY’S NOT WALKING THROUGH THAT DOOR

Denver Broncos (+4) at Atlanta Falcons: Drew Lock is easy to read. In his young career, he’s been a terrific QB against bad defenses – and Atlanta is terrible, ranking 29th in pass defense. I’m curious to see what his track team of KJ Hamler, Jerry Jeudy and Philip Lindsay can do indoors.

The Broncos are 5-2 as underdogs. The Falcons are 0-4 as favorites. Atlanta is likely to be without WR Calvin Ridley (concussion), and expect Matt Ryan to be under pressure, as the Broncos are seventh in pressure rate, and that’s without much blitzing because Bradley Chubb (5.5 sacks) has been a terror off the edge.

BECAUSE WE NEED A PLAYOFF TEAM FROM LAS VEGAS

Las Vegas Raiders (-1) at Los Angeles Chargers: The Raiders' win in Cleveland boosted their chances of the playoffs, and after opening this week as an underdog, they took on money all week.

The Chargers play the seventh-most zone defense in the NFL; Raiders QB Derek Carr has the fourth-highest passer rating vs. zone this season. LA may also be without star pass rusher Joey Bosa, who suffered a concussion last week in the fourth quarter and didn’t return.

Remember how Jerry Seinfeld made an entire episode out of a car rental agency that was great at taking reservations, but terrible at holding them? That’s Anthony Lynn with leads. The Chargers have blown four leads of 17+ points this season, and lost three of them.

FLIP-FLOPPED SO MUCH I FEEL LIKE A SANDAL

Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-5): Went into the week loving the Cardinals in this spot off the bye because I didn’t like what I saw from Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa in his debut. Then COVID hit the Cardinals, sidelining defensive starters Byron Murphy (CB) and Devon Kennard (LB). Another CB (Dre Kirkpatrick) hasn’t practiced all week.

As much as I like Arizona, they’ve played one team with a winning record (Seattle), and lost twice as favorites against inferior teams (Detroit, Carolina). Miami’s run defense remains last in the league, but its pass defense, with cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, has been tremendous.

That could mean Kyler Murray is in for a volatile afternoon, scrambling while cornerbacks in man coverage have their back turned. Pass.

JUST HOW FAR HAS BUFFALO FALLEN?

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Buffalo Bills: These aren’t the early-season Bills that had Josh Allen as an MVP candidate. They’re 0-4 ATS in the last four weeks, and Allen hasn’t thrown a TD pass in the last two games. He may be without his center, Mitch Morse (concussion), too. Coming off an AFC East rivalry game they had to have, there is potential for a letdown here in a non-conference game.

Russell Wilson has won 10 straight East Coast games, and he’s a ridiculous 18-7-2 ATS in the Eastern Time zone. Jamal Adams is expected to return for Seattle, and edge rusher Carlos Dunlap will make his debut. Buffalo will struggle to run against Seattle, so do you trust Josh Allen to keep up with Wilson?

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