New England Patriots

5 reasons Patriots can't win a Super Bowl without Rob Gronkowski

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 11:06 a.m. ET

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Rob Gronkowski’s season-ending injury has opened the window for all Super Bowl contenders not named the New England Patriots.

Oct 23, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) scores a touchdown past Pittsburgh Steelers strong safety Robert Golden (rear) during the third quarter at Heinz Field. New England won 27-16. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Rob Gronkowski injury is devastating for the Patriots. There is no way around it. As far as a pure football player, there may not be a bigger mismatch in the sport than Gronkowski. In every season Gronkowski has played 10 games, he has scored at least 10 touchdowns.

Nobody can make the impact that Gronkowski can and he changes the dynamics of the entire Patriots offense. This team will make the playoffs and they’ll likely win a playoff game, but all of sudden there is a ceiling to how far this team can go.

The loss of Gronkowski will prove to derail the team’s Super Bowl hopes and here are five reasons why they’ll come up short.

Nov 27, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a touchdown pass against the New York Jets after fumbling the snap during the second quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

5. Different Tom Brady

Let’s think back to the 2014 season. The Patriots had to start their year with a banged up Rob Gronkowski coming back from an ACL injury. Gronk was active, but as he shook the rust off, the Patriots offense proved to be unreliable until he was fully healthy. Over the first four games, the Patriots went 2-2, and lost in a blowout to the Kansas City Chiefs that had many writing their obituaries.

Gronkowski was averaging just three catches for 34 yards per game at that point. Brady was averaging 197 yards per game and was completing 59 percent of his passes. For perspective, in his career, Brady is a 63 percent passer and averaged 260 yards per game. However, from that point forward, Gronkowski averaged 6.2 catches for 89.7 yards per game, and the Patriots finished the season 10-2 while making a Super Bowl run.

The moral of the story is that even when Rob Gronkowski is not in full Gronk mode, the team is completely different. When you take him completely out of the lineup, Brady’s struggles are the same.

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He’s completed 57 percent of his passes without Gronkowski since the Patriots drafted the tight end from Arizona. He’s thrown for five touchdowns to one interception with Gronkowski in the lineup, compared to just two touchdowns per pick without Gronkowski.

Gronkowski is a valuable difference maker. Without him, the Patriots do not have a player that requires double coverage and the attention of every defender on the field. It lessens every other skill player’s value, and eventually falls back on Brady. A worse Brady and worse overall offense may not be enough to get this team to where they want to go.

Oct 9, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; New England Patriots tight end Martellus Bennett (88) celebrates his second quarter touchdown against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

4. Martellus Bennett is no Gronk

Many pundits and analysts have mentioned that the Patriots can survive the Rob Gronkowski injury thanks to the offseason signing of Martellus Bennett. However, no one seems to mention that Bennett himself has been hurt all season. In week five, Bennett sustained an ankle injury. Since week five, he has yet to be a full practice participant in consecutive days.

He added a shoulder ailment to his injury report recently, and in the Jets game had to go the locker room after re-injuring his ankle. He has yet to practice this week, and over the past two weeks, mostly without Gronkowski in the lineup, he has four catches for 36 yards combined.

That is not exactly the stat line of a player who is ready to step in and take over for the scariest skill player in the NFL. Add in that the Patriots currently run the second most two tight end sets in the NFL and there is a problem.

The Patriots will have to adjust their playbook completely. This may be a team going from relying on two of the best tight ends in the NFL, to relying on a hobbled tight end who is a shell of himself. Again, that is a huge dynamic that changes for this team.

If any team can formulate a game plan to mask their recent issues, it is Bill Belichick and the Patriots. At the same time, masking the deficiencies and sparking Super Bowl run with those deficiencies are two completely different subjects. If the Patriots want any shot at a Super Bowl this year, Bennett better get healthy and fast.

Sep 18, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots defensive end Chris Long (95) is congratulated after taking down Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) in the second quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

3. Defensive Issues

Hidden under the return of Tom Brady and his use of the two tight ends is the fact that Patriots defense seems to get worse every week. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Patriots currently rank 21st in the NFL and rank 28th against the pass. Their pass rush has been a problem this year, as they rank 21st in the NFL in sacks. At the same time, the secondary has not held up their end, ranking 28th in interceptions.

The team traded Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins recently, and you could argue that if the two were brought back right now, they would be the best two defensive players on the Patriots. Collins still leads the team in interceptions and their leading sack man is Trey Flowers, who has started three career games for the Patriots.

When the Patriots were winning Super Bowls pre-Gronkowski, Brady got the credit, but the defense was amazing. Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Willie McGinest, Ty Law, Richard Seymour, the list goes on and on with defensive contributors. Since those guys have moved on, the Patriots have mostly done it behind Brady and the offense. Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski were the big names to step into their places.

Now Moss and Welker are retired, and Gronkowski will not be on the field. If the offense is going to decline the rest of the season, and the defense isn’t very good, to begin with, it is hard to say that the Patriots are the team to beat in the NFL.

Oct 9, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) and center David Andrews (60) against the Cleveland Browns during the fourth quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Patriots won 33-13. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

2. Weak schedule to date

Of course, Patriots fans have stats to throw right back at that line of thinking. Brady missed four games this season, and the Pats went 3-1. The Patriots are also 3-0 when Gronkowski is inactive this season, and 5-0 when he does not catch a pass.

That, however, could have more to do with the teams the Patriots have faced. Since Brady has returned from the lineup, he has hardly been challenged. He opened up with the Cleveland Browns, followed up by the three-win Cincinnati Bengals, who have gone 1-3-1 since losing to New England.

They faced the Pittsburgh Steelers with Landry Jones at quarterback, and beat the three-win Jets and one-win 49ers as well. Their most impressive win of the season has to be at the 6-5 Buffalo Bills. Of course, the big difference maker in that game was Rob Gronkowski, who used five catches for 109 yards to propel his team to victory.

The Patriots have had one real test since Brady has returned. They squared off with the Seattle Seahawks at home, on prime time, and they lost. These are not the battle-tested New England Patriots you think they are. The Patriots have been fortunate this season with their schedule, and when they begin to get tested every week, it may show. Unfortunately for the Patriots, it will be at the worst time.

Dec 21, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) is sacked by Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker James Harrison (92) during the first quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

1. AFC is full of challengers

A lot of talks this season has been that the Patriots will cruise to the Super Bowl, mainly because, who in the AFC can beat them? Sure, most of the AFC teams have some weaknesses to poke holes at, but now that the Patriots are on a similar level, the competition is actually tough.

To start, the Raiders are going nowhere. Behind Dallas, they have the best offensive line in the NFL. They have skill players at every position, and Derek Carr looks to be the perfect fit to distribute the ball to all of them.

The Chiefs are getting hot at the right time, and unlike the Patriots, they’re getting healthy as well. The team got Justin Houston back last week, and he had a major impact in beating the Denver Broncos on the road. They also appear to be getting Dee Ford and Jeremy Maclin back this week. Just in time to make a potential run.

Then, there are the Steelers. The Steelers got lost in the shuffle thanks to a four-game losing streak. Then you break down that four-games losing streak and see that an injured Ben Roethlisberger lost to four teams with a combined 32-12 record. Roethlisberger played hurt in a loss at Miami, was out for a loss to the Patriots, showed rust against a fierce Baltimore defense, and when healthy lost in the waning seconds to the Dallas Cowboys.

These are three good teams, getting healthy and playing good football at the right time. The Patriots are essentially the exact opposite. To think that they would run through these three teams without a defiant playmaker on offense, or the ability to create turnovers on defense seems ludicrous.

The team is 9-2 but has yet to be battle tested. It appears that as the season goes on, we may all realize that this team is just not destined for a Super Bowl now that their premier pass catcher will not be there for the ride.