2016 NFL season: Record predictions for all 32 teams
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CLEVELAND, OH – SEPTEMBER 27, 2015: Cornerback Joe Haden
Matt Verderame reveals his initial 2016 NFL power rankings and record predictions.
The 2016 NFL season is upon us. Come Sept. 8, the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos will take the field and once the opening kickoff is in the air, the Vince Lombardi Trophy is up for grabs.
32. Cleveland Browns
This is going to be a rough year for Cleveland. The Browns are coming off an offseason in which they lost four of their most important players in Mitch Schwartz, Tashaun Gipson, Alex Mack, and Travis Benjamin to free agency.
For Cleveland, at least the Cavaliers won a championship, breaking the 52-year drought of all major sports teams in the city. The Browns are moving in a positive direction, hiring head coach Hue Jackson. Jackson, who had his first shot at head coaching with the Oakland Raiders in 2011, was a hire lauded universally in the NFL world.
His first and most important challenge will be to change the culture of a franchise rooted in turmoil. General manager Sashi Brown made the right move by cutting ties with Johnny Manziel back in March and avoiding any players with trouble backgrounds in the 2016 NFL Draft. Still, Jackson has to instill a winning mentality in a team that has not reached the playoffs since 2002 and not won a postseason game since 1994.
It’s going to be a long, slow climb for Cleveland. But if Jackson and quarterback Robert Griffin III prove to be the right moves, the Browns could be making positive strides for the first time in years.
Record prediction: 3-13
SANTA CLARA, CA – OCTOBER 22: Carlos Hyde
31. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is one of the more beautiful cities in the world, just not when you’re watching football inside Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers are only three seasons removed from going to the NFC Championship game with a roster that featured Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, Alex Boone, Chris Culliver, and others.
Flash forward to the eve of the 2016 season, and all but Bowman are gone. San Francisco has also been through a pair of head coaches since then, coming to a mutual agreement to part ways with Jim Harbaugh after the 2014 campaign and then firing Jim Tomsula after one season.
All of this leads to a horrific roster and Chip Kelly with the headset. Kelly, for all the angst he causes with players and fans alike, was successful to a degree in Philadelphia. The former University of Oregon head man won 27 games in three seasons with the Eagles, but could never gain an elusive postseason victory.
This year, he won’t be getting one either. The 49ers are in complete rebuild mode and are simply hoping to find some positives. Can Blaine Gabbert be the answer at quarterback? Is Carlos Hyde a franchise back? How does the 2016 rookie class stack up?
Record prediction: 4-12
NASHVILLE, TN – DECEMBER 06: Quarterback Marcus Mariota
30. Tennessee Titans
Playing against a much tougher schedule, the Titans are going to be hard-pressed to see improvement in the win column. Tennessee, which earned the second-overall pick for the second straight year, could be on that path again after sitting out free agency.
General manager Jon Robinson is being cautious in his approach. Robinson could have gone out and tried to hire a splashy head coaching candidate, but instead decided to retain Mike Mularkey, who was tagged as the interim coach over the final nine games of 2015, going 2-7.
Mularkey needs to spark a franchise that, outside of second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota, doesn’t have much to excite the fan base. The receivers could be decent with the trio of Andre Johnson, Rishard Matthews and Kendall Wright, but the rest of the roster leaves plenty to be desired. However, one bright spot will be the running tandem of Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray behind a young and talented offensive line.
With the rest of the AFC South seeing improvement near across the board, the Titans could struggle to even match last season’s win total. Again, though, if Mularkey proves to be the right hire and Mariota can make progress, Tennessee has to feel good about the long-term future — for the first time in a long time.
Record prediction: 3-13
JACKSONVILLE, FL – DECEMBER 20: Julio Jones
29. Atlanta Falcons
Folks in Atlanta are going to be enraged at where their Falcons are being placed on this list, but it’s a reality. The team has done little to get better after missing the playoffs again in 2015, making one wonder how long general manager Thomas Dimitroff is going to stick around.
Atlanta went to the NFC Championship game in 2012, losing 28-24 at the Georgia Dome. Since then, the Falcons have been a steady decline and frankly, there is no end to the slide in sight. Atlanta still has a non-existent pass rush and outside of Desmond Trufant, the secondary is abysmal.
The offense has a superstar in Julio Jones and a good quarterback in Matt Ryan, but the rest of the cast is motley. Devonta Freeman came roaring out of the gates to start last season but trailed off considerably throughout the final eight games, never hitting 90 rushing yards. Even worse, Freeman failed to hit four yards per carry in any of the last seven affairs when carrying the ball at least four times.
Facing the AFC and NFC West divisions is not helping the cause for second-year head coach Dan Quinn. The former Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator is facing an uphill battle, and the road is icy.
Record prediction: 4-12
PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 13: Fletcher Cox
28. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are low on this list for a few reasons. For starters, the quarterback situation is a mess. Carson Wentz is the future face of the franchise, but for now, Chase Daniel is the man. Daniel has been a backup for Drew Brees and Alex Smith throughout his career, so expecting him to play great might be a bit excessive.
While the offensive line is good in front of him, the talent on the outside and in the backfield is underwhelming. Jordan Matthews is a quality receiver, amassing 85 catches for 997 yards and eight touchdowns last season, but he isn’t explosive. First-round pick Nelson Agholor hasn’t developed yet and the rest of the weapons are average at best.
Defensively, the undoing is going to be the secondary. A team can’t start Nolan Carroll, Eric Rowe and Leodis McKelvin and expect to stop elite passing attacks. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, it plays in a division dominated by great receivers, ranging from Odell Beckham Jr. and Dez Bryant to DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon.
This is going to be a rough maiden voyage for head coach Dennis Pederson, who has a good offensive mind but no experience as the leading man.
Record prediction: 5-11
DETROIT, MI – DECEMBER 27: Ezekiel Ansah
27. Detroit Lions
The Lions always seem to be stuck in neutral, with the motor burnt out and the driver kicking at one of the tires. In this case, the driver is head coach Jim Caldwell, who, in his third season as head coach, has to be nervous looking at this roster.
Without the recently retired Calvin Johnson, Detroit will need to rely on a more balanced offense. However, the team finished dead last in rushing yardage last year and has the same cache of limited backs. Ameer Abdullah has the most potential, flashing at times throughout an inconsistent rookie campaign.
Some will point to the free-agent signing of Marvin Jones and maturation of Golden Tate, claiming the best way to win is have quarterback Matthew Stafford chucking and ducking. In reality, Detroit has been doing that since Barry Sanders left town in the late 1990s and have two playoff appearances and no wins to show for it.
The Lions have some stars in Stafford, Tate, Ezekiel Ansah, Darius Slay and DeAndre Levy, but the holes on both sides of the ball are glaring.
Record prediction: 5-11
MIAMI GARDENS, FL – JANUARY 03: Ryan Tannehill
26. Miami Dolphins
First-time head coach Adam Gase has plenty of work ahead of him down in South Beach. The Dolphins, who have not won a playoff game since 2000, are starting fresh once more, this time having poached Gase from the Chicago Bears, where he served as offensive coordinator.
Gase’s first and most important chore will be to make Ryan Tannehill an elite quarterback. Tannehill threw for more than 4,200 yards last season, but still struggled to get the ball downfield. With receivers like Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry, Miami has the weapons to develop a nice vertical passing attack.
To run deeper routes, though, the Dolphins need better work out of their offensive line. Miami has invested heavily in Ju’Wuan James, Branden Albert, Mike Pouncey and Laremy Tunsil, who were all first-round picks (all by Miami save for Albert). Tannehill has played under duress most of his career, and the current line gives reason to believe that will continue.
Without running back Lamar Miller or a quality tight end in the fold, Gase will have to scheme the Dolphins into good situations. With the defense losing so much talent this offseason in Brent Grimes and Olivier Vernon, it’s on the offense to score in bunches.
Record prediction: 5-11
NEW ORLEANS, LA – DECEMBER 21: Brandin Cooks
25. New Orleans Saints
It’s another season of Saints football, and another story of a good offense trying to cover up a bad defense.
New Orleans once again has the makings of a potent aerial attack, led by future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees. Brees is still at the top of his prolific game and, with Brandin Cooks on the outside and Mark Ingram in the backfield, New Orleans will be able to put up points.
Yet the problem remains the same. The defense simply isn’t any good, despite adding another piece in first-round selection Sheldon Rankins, a defensive tackle out of Louisville. With Rankins also out to begin the season, there are plenty of holes both up front and in the secondary.
On their best day, the Saints can beat any team in the NFL. Brees can throw for 400 yards, Cooks can go for 150 yards and two scores and the defense can create a turnover or two. Unfortunately for those in the Big Easy, that recipe isn’t repeatable on a weekly basis.
For New Orleans, the 2016 campaign is likely to be another wasted effort for Brees and Co., as cap concerns and Brees’ age start to take the stage, front and center.
Record prediction: 6-10
CHARLOTTE, NC – JANUARY 03: Jameis Winston
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After going 7-9 and generally looking improved, Tampa Bay shocked its fanbase by firing head coach Lovie Smith. Smith had guided the Buccaneers to a five-win improvement, but it wasn’t enough to save his job, with offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter having since taken over.
Koetter has never been a head coach before, but he’s got plenty of talent between quarterback Jameis Winston, running back Doug Martin, and receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. With those four firing on all cylinders, the Buccaneers could be a top-10 offense in the NFL this season.
The problem is on defense. Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy are two of the top players in the league at their respective positions, but the rest of the unit has issues. Vernon Hargreaves III was taken in the first round of April’s draft, where the Bucs hoped to find an elite corner to go with veterans Alterraun Verner and Johnathan Banks.
In a division loaded with primetime quarterbacks and All-Pro talent at receiver, the Buccaneers are going to be exposed for their flaws. Add in a schedule that features the tough AFC West and the record could actually be worse in 2016 — even if the team looks marginally better.
Tampa Bay has a ton of promise, but it has some growing pains to endure first.
Record prediction: 7-9
INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 8: Andrew Luck
23. Indianapolis Colts
After throwing 14 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in an injury-shortened year, Andrew Luck has plenty to prove.
While Luck has one of the strongest arms and sharpest minds in the game, the 2012 first-overall pick has been guilty at times of trying to do too much. It’s understandable in Indianapolis, where the supporting cast is underwhelming and, in some areas, flat-out non-existent.
The Colts finally made a good choice in the first round of a draft, taking center Ryan Kelly instead of a receiver or running back. Still, the right side of the offensive line is a serious concern. Behind them, running back Frank Gore is aging rapidly, unlikely to ever reach 4.0 yards per carry again.
Defensively, this is a team without much talent. Robert Mathis had seven sacks after tearing his Achilles and missing all of 2014, but he’s limited to pass-rushing downs and, at 35 years old, can’t be counted on to be a stud anymore. The rest of the front seven has some players in Kendall Langford and Henry Anderson, but nobody who keeps the opponent up at night.
Indianapolis took advantage of a weak AFC South for years, but those days have come to a close after the moves made by the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans.
Record prediction: 7-9
DENVER, CO – JANUARY 3: Quarterback Philip Rivers
22. San Diego Chargers
San Diego has one of the best quarterbacks in football with Philip Rivers. The problem, as it has been throughout this entire decade, is that he has little help around him.
Rivers is 34 years old and doesn’t move around outside the pocket. He’s very much a statue, which is a problem when the offensive line is brutal. King Dunlap and Orlando Franklin provide a decent left side, but from center to right tackle, it’s a disaster. Joe Barksdale and D.J. Fluker have never proven to be high-quality players.
The strength of this team — outside of Rivers — is the receiving group. Travis Benjamin had over 900 yards with the Cleveland Browns last year and now has a real quarterback throwing him the football. Keenan Allen missed the last half of 2015 with a kidney injury, but he remains a threat to go for 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns.
San Diego’s other flaw is in the front seven. While general manager Tom Telesco did well to sign Brandon Mebane, the linebackers are sub-par. Manti Te’o simply isn’t good against the run or pass, and Denzel Perryman is strictly a downhill thumper. Melvin Ingram is the only true pass-rusher on the team, racking up 10 sacks a year ago.
This team has its strengths, but far too many weaknesses to compete in the AFC West.
Record prediction: 6-10
ST. LOUIS, MO – DECEMBER 6: Todd Gurley
21. Los Angeles Rams
Same story, different city. The Rams have a great running back in Todd Gurley but nothing else on the offense. Gurley could be the next Adrian Peterson, showcasing an incredible amount of strength and speed. Unfortunately for the second-year man out of the University of Georgia, he is going to be facing stacked boxes all season.
Rookie Jared Goff has a ton of potential, but he will be brought along slowly. With Goff on training wheels and an offense that has Kenny Britt as its top receiver, somebody needs to step up if the Rams want to challenge for a postseason berth — something the team hasn’t done since 2004.
Los Angeles also has to replace some quality players on defense after general manager Les Snead decided to let some walk in free agency. Corner Janoris Jenkins and safety Rodney McLeod exited the secondary while James Laurinaitis and Nick Fairley were allowed to leave the front seven. Snead didn’t bring in obvious replacements, creating uncertainty.
For years, the Rams have been long on potential but short on results. If that is the case in 2016, head coach Jeff Fisher and Snead should be looking for new employment.
Record prediction: 7-9
CHICAGO, IL – DECEMBER 6: Alshon Jeffery
20. Chicago Bears
After a year under the Ryan Pace-John Fox regime, the Bears are still not quite a playoff team. The rebuild was always going to take some time, and it could be another year before Chicago can ascend into January football again.
The Bears had a very nice offseason under Pace, who signed Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan. Both are underrated inside linebackers who can play against the run, with Trevathan also having the ability to drop into coverage.
Factor in a nice draft class and the return of 2015 first-round pick Kevin White, and Chicago has ample promise.
So why aren’t the Bears getting more love in these rankings? The offense is a serious work in progress. White is talented but a rookie, and Alshon Jeffery is terrific but always hurt. Meanwhile, Jeremy Langford has to prove he can carry the burden left for him by Matt Forte.
The defense isn’t without its questions as well. While the front seven is looking better than it has since the days of Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, the secondary still has holes. Kyle Fuller might take the next step from his already solid play, but the supporting cast is a major concern.
Record prediction: 7-9
BALTIMORE, MD – AUGUST 29: Outside linebacker Terrell Suggs
19. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are coming off a 5-11 season that saw an incredible avalanche of injuries. It’s not likely to happen again in the same capacity, but Baltimore is still in trouble.
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are clearly better teams at this point, and the Ravens are banking on a cavalcade of older players to rebound from serious injuries. Terrell Suggs and Steve Smith Sr. both tore their Achilles tendons, and Suggs for the second time. Asking either of them to come back and play at a primetime level is borderline laughable.
Elvis Dumervil also slowed considerably in 2015 with six sacks while Daryl Smith was released after the season. In addition, the secondary added safety Eric Weddle but is otherwise weak in a division loaded with big-time quarterbacks and receivers. Factor in a diminished pass rush, and the Ravens have serious issues on the defensive side of the ball.
Baltimore is going to win more than five games if Joe Flacco and Co. stay upright, but expecting a return to the postseason would be optimistic. This is a team with many questions and few answers, as one of the best rosters on paper has simply gotten old.
Record prediction: 7-9
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ – JANUARY 03: Odell Beckham
18. New York Giants
Few teams have a wider range of expectations going into the 2016 season than the Giants, who could finish anywhere from last to first and shock nobody. Perhaps fittingly, they fall right in the middle of our rankings.
The Giants were aggressive in the offseason, with general manager Jerry Reese likely realizing it is either now or never for him to continue his regime. New York went out and signed defensive end Olivier Vernon to an eye-popping $85 million over five years with $52 million guaranteed. only shortly after giving cornerback Janoris Jenkins $62 million on five years.
Reese was also trying to beef up the defense in the draft, taking Eli Apple with the 10th-overall pick. Apple should start immediately across from Jenkings, replacing the departed Prince Amukamara, who took a one-year deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Offensively, the Giants are going to put up points. New York has a top-5 receiver in Odell Beckham Jr. to accompany the returning Victor Cruz. Add in the exciting second-round rookie Sterling Shepard, and Eli Manning should be throwing early and often. If the line holds up, this could be a top-tier offense.
Ultimately, the questions for Big Blue are all about the defense. If Vernon and Pierre-Paul can create enough of a pass rush, the Giants could be in the playoffs.
Record prediction: 8-8
JACKSONVILLE, FL – DECEMBER 13: Allen Robinson
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are finally climbing up the rankings after sitting at the bottom for the better part of a decade.
Jacksonville was among the most aggressive teams in the league this offseason, signing a bevy of veterans including corner Prince Amukamara, safety Tashaun Gipson, defensive tackle Malik Jackson and offensive tackle Kelvin Beachum. The draft was also a coup for the Jaguars, who landed defensive back Jalen Ramsey and linebacker Myles Jack with consecutive picks. Should Dante Fowler Jr. come back from his torn ACL and contribute off the edge, this defense may go from terrible to terrifying.
With all that said, questions remain. Can Blake Bortles cut down on the interceptions and will the offensive line keep him upright? Last year, the Jaguars were fourth worst in sacks allowed, leading to Bortles’ league-leading 18 interceptions.
If the Jaguars’ front wall can give Bortles some time, and provide holes for both Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville could make the playoffs for the first time since the Jack Del Rio era. It remains to be seen if the Jaguars are ready to compete with the big boys in the AFC, but taking the division crown in a weak AFC South is certainly doable.
Record prediction: 8-8
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JANUARY 10: Adrian Peterson
16. Minnesota Vikings
Everything was going so well for the Vikings and their faithful. Nobody had gotten hurt through the first three preseason games. The team looked fantastic, poised to challenge for the first Super Bowl championship in franchise history. Then, it all vanished.
Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater tore his ACL and dislocated his knee in a non-contact practice on Aug. 30, putting him out for the season. While Bridgewater is not one of the more prolific passers in the league, he’s a vital cog for Minnesota’s machine. Without him, the Vikings are back to being Adrian Peterson, a good defense and a bunch of guys.
Minnesota had real expectations of getting to the Super Bowl under third-year head coach Mike Zimmer, but now the playoffs seem like a pipe dream. Without a real quarterback at the helm, the Vikings are still the second-best team in the NFC North but are no longer a threat to make any real noise come January.
Hopefully Bridgewater can fully recover from this gruesome injury and bounce back in 2017, giving Minnesota fans something long-term to look forward to.
Record prediction: 8-8
ORCHARD PARK, NY – SEPTEMBER 20: Marcell Dareus
15. Buffalo Bills
As has been the case for the past two seasons, the Bills find themselves in football’s version of purgatory. Buffalo has gone 17-15 over the past two campaigns, but has yet to make the playoffs since 1999 due to a dizzying amount of head coaches and quarterbacks.
On the plus side, Buffalo is bringing back the same combination at those two spots. Rex Ryan is looking to rebound from a disappointing maiden voyage in western New York, while Tyrod Taylor hopes to build on a Pro Bowl campaign.
Taylor needs to get some more support, however, from LeSean McCoy. McCoy was the big-name addition of the 2015 offseason, only to have him rush for 895 yards and three touchdowns. If the Bills are going to make a move in the AFC East and reach the postseason, McCoy has to be a dominant force in both the running and passing attacks.
If Ryan can get this group to play better defense (ranked 19th last season), Buffalo has a real shot of ending its playoff drought. However, he will need to rely on some scheming with all the issues of the preseason causing panic. Reggie Ragland’s torn ACL will keep him out all season, while Marcell Dareus will miss the first four games of the season with a substance abuse violation.
The Bills have some significant hurdles to climb in 2016.
Record prediction: 8-8
ORCHARD PARK, NY – DECEMBER 06: DeAndre Hopkins
167. Houston Texans
The Texans are going to be a work in progress. Houston went out and completely revamped its backfield with the signings of quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller, moving on from Brian Hoyer and Arian Foster.
While both players could be upgrades, the hype train in Houston needs to pump its brakes. Osweiler has started exactly seven games in his career and was highly inconsistent. Expecting him to dominate immediately in a new offense is akin to a pipe dream. In addition, Miller is a talented back with a short track record. It might not be a revelation having Miller like some believe.
In addition, J.J. Watt’s back surgery is very troubling. Without him at full speed, which he likely won’t truly be until midseason, the Texans have only one player in the front seven worth talking about. Yes, Whitney Mercilus, not Jadeveon Clowney. Mercilus is a terrific player coming off the edge, racking up 12 sacks last season.
The Texans are going to compete in the AFC South and could win it, but it won’t be a cakewalk this time. Houston only beat two teams last season with a winning record (Jets and Bengals) and then got walloped at home by the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs.
Record prediction: 9-7
LANDOVER, MD – OCTOBER 04: Pierre Garcon
13. Washington Redskins
Washington fans are going to be screaming about this low ranking, but sometimes you have to factor in more than a record from the prior year. Yes, the Redskins went 9-7, but they did so facing a last-place schedule and by getting ample help in the injury department, with Tony Romo going down with a pair of broken clavicles.
The Redskins must improve substantially on defense if they are going to get back to the playoffs. Washington only had two players who recorded more than six sacks last year, leading to questions of whether it can generate enough pressure to beat elite quarterbacks.
In 2015, the Redskins beat Nick Foles, Sam Bradford, Jameis Winston, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Tyrod Taylor, Bradford again and Kellen Moore. Outside of Brees, that list ranges from decent to awful. Almost every time Washington saw a top-flight quarterback, it got pounded.
The addition of Josh Norman will make a difference and the offense should be humming provided Kirk Cousins can compile another good season. Still, facing a first-place schedule this time around and being a hunted team instead of the hunters can make all the difference.
Record prediction: 9-7
CLEVELAND, OH – SEPTEMBER 27: Khalil Mack
12. Oakland Raiders
No team is getting more love around the league than the Raiders, who some believe could make a serious run at the Super Bowl.
Oakland is coming into the 2016 season loaded for bear, with general manager Reggie McKenzie having gone on a spending spree this spring. The Raiders were able to add guard Kelechi Osemele, corner Sean Smith, safety Reggie Nelson, and outside linebacker Bruce Irvin into the mix, hoping to shore up what was a dismal pass defense.
The Raiders should be explosive offensively with quarterback Derek Carr coming into his third year. Carr threw for 3,987 yards and 32 touchdowns last season and is likely to see more production out of second-year sensation Amari Cooper on the outside. Add in Michael Crabtree and running back Latavius Murray, and Oakland has weapons galore behind a top-notch offensive line.
So why aren’t the Raiders higher? Depth and run defense. Oakland still has issues up the gut defensively and depth is non-existent in some areas. Should the Raiders be fallen by a rash of injuries, they will be hard-pressed to overcome like some of the more seasoned units in the NFL.
The Raiders are going to be right on the brink of a playoff berth this season. It will be fun watching them try to break through.
Record prediction: 9-7
ORCHARD PARK, NY – JANUARY 03: Brandon Marshall
11. New York Jets
New York looked to be having one of the worst offseasons of any team in the NFL until mid-July, when general manager Mike Maccagnan finally got down to business.
Instead of leaving defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson on the franchise tag, the two sides came together at the final moment on a lucrative five-year contract. Maccagnan then signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to what realistically is a one-year deal for $12 million.
The Jets should be one of the better teams in the AFC if they can avoid a disastrous start. In its first six games, New York faces Buffalo, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Seattle with only the Bills and Bengals at home. If the Jets can manage 3-3 out of that stretch, it would go a long way toward reaching the playoffs for the first time since the Mark Sanchez era.
Everything rides on Fitzpatrick, who at 33 years old needs to repeat his 2015 season of 31 touchdowns and almost 4,000 yards. If he can’t, and stumbled back into who he always was before last year, it is a wrap on the season for Gang Green.
Yet, under offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, there is ample reason to believe the Harvard man can get it done.
Record prediction: 9-7
ARLINGTON, TX – DECEMBER 19: Dez Bryant
10. Dallas Cowboys
This is an ambitious ranking, granted. Dallas will need quarterback Tony Romo to come back from the broken vertebrae in his back and stay healthy the rest of the way. In the meantime, rookie Dak Prescott will need to continue his incredible play from the preseason, at least to some realistic degree.
Dallas has all kinds of problems on the defensive side of the ball, with Rolando McClain, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Randy Gregory all being suspended to begin the season. In addition, the secondary is a mess, relying heavily on Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne to win the day.
So why any hope of winning the East? Because the Cowboys are playing a last-place schedule and if Romo comes back and actually stays healthy, it could be the best offense in the NFL. Jason Witten is still effective at tight end, while Dez Bryant remains one of the best receivers in the game. Terrance Williams is also an underrated piece, and the offensive line is the top unit in the NFL. Factor in Ezekiel Elliott, and this is a group that can average 30 points per game.
It won’t be easy for the Cowboys to cover up the deficiencies on defense, and with Romo on the shelf for at least six weeks or so, it might be impossible.
Record prediction: 10-6
SANTA CLARA, CA – FEBRUARY 07: Chris Harris (25) of the Denver Broncos celebrates as Danny Trevathan (59) of the Denver Broncos recovers a fumble in the second quarter. The Denver Broncos played the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. on February 7, 2016. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
9. Denver Broncos
After winning the Super Bowl, this might seem a curious spot for the Broncos. Denver is returning most of its pieces, but is without some of its top contributors on a defense that led the way in 2015.
The Broncos still have Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, Brandon Marshall, and the No Fly Zone, but the departures of Danny Trevathan and Malik Jackson could seriously weaken the run game. In addition, Denver watched Evan Mathis and Brock Osweiler leave in free agency for more money.
In response, the Broncos are going young with quarterback Trevor Siemian at the helm. Siemian has never taken a meaningful snap from center entering his second season, but was able to beat out veteran Mark Sanchez in preseason. While Paxton Lynch will likely be the starter before the end of the season, Siemian will have a chance to prove he was a steal in the seventh round.
The Broncos are still going to be a very good team with a top-notch defense and a legitimate rushing attack, but to call them the best team in football would be a stretch.
Record prediction: 9-7
PITTSBURGH, PA – DECEMBER 20: Ben Roethlisberger
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers enter 2016 with high hopes. Pittsburgh won another playoff game last season and took the Denver Broncos to the limit in the AFC Divisional round, despite being without Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.
To start this campaign, Pittsburgh will continue to be undermanned. Bell is suspended three games for failing to take mandatory drug tests throughout the offseason, while wide receiver Martavis Bryant is banned for the year due to a violation of the substance abuse policy.
With all that working against them, the Steelers remain a favorite due to Ben Roethlisberger and head coach Mike Tomlin. Roehtlisberger only played in 12 games last season and needs to stay healthy this time around, but if he does, he will be a threat to win the passing title. Brown remains the top receiver in football, hauling in 136 passes last year for 1,834 yards, leading the league in both categories.
Pittsburgh simply has to be competent on defense. The Steelers ranked 30th against the pass in 2015 and 21st overall, both problems that need to improve. General manager Kevin Colbert drafted corners Artie Burns and Sean Davis with his first two picks, hoping to rectify what has been a problem for years.
Look for plenty of high-scoring affairs in the Steel City, something of a comfortable place for this team.
Record prediction: 10-6
CLEVELAND, OH – DECEMBER 6: Quarterback Andy Dalton
7. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals underwent some departures in the offseason, losing receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu to free agency, along with tackle Andre Smith and safety Reggie Nelson. While all those losses chip away at a talented roster, the Bengals are still a playoff-caliber team.
Cincinnati desperately needs to win a playoff game, something the franchise has not done since taking down Jerry Glanville’s Houston Oilers in 1990. Under head coach Marvin Lewis, the Bengals have reached the postseason seven times including each of the past five years, only to lose in the Wild Card round.
With quarterback Andy Dalton returned from a broken thumb and A.J. Green on the outside, Cincinnati’s passing attack should survive. Factor in Giovani Bernard’s pass-catching talents and Tyler Eifert, and the Bengals are still quite multiple offensively.
The defense remains a stout group, led by a line that includes Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap. Should the Bengals finally take the next step and make a move in the postseason, it will be behind this group wreaking havoc.
If it goes awry once more for the Bengals in 2016, perhaps it is time to clean house in the coaching ranks.
Record prediction: 11-5
CHARLOTTE, NC – JANUARY 17: Russell Wilson
6. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is a Super Bowl contender once more, something it’s been since drafting Russell Wilson back in 2012. Wilson is perhaps the most underrated quarterback in football despite winning a Super Bowl and reaching another, and now has a bevy of weapons at his disposal.
The receivers in Seattle will lead the way with Marshawn Lynch retiring after the 2015 season. While Thomas Rawls is a good option, it will be up to Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin, and the re-signed Jermaine Kearse to keep the offense moving. Factor in the return of tight end Jimmy Graham, and we should see the transformation of this unit.
The only issue keeping the Seahawks from the top spot in these rankings is a brutal offensive line. Seattle allowed the sixth-most sacks with 46 last season, despite having a scrambling, mobile quarterback in Wilson. The line doesn’t look to be much better after the departures of Russell Okung and J.R. Sweezy.
If Seattle can figure out a way to improve or scheme around the line, it remains a threat to win its second Super Bowl in four seasons. With an elite defense, anything is possible in the Emerald City.
Record prediction: 11-5
OAKLAND, CA – DECEMBER 06: Marcus Peters
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has not won or reached a Super Bowl since 1969, but there is reason to believe that could finally change in 2016. The Chiefs have amassed ample talent on both sides of the ball, with general manager John Dorsey landing a key piece in free agency with right tackle Mitch Schwartz.
The offense should be explosive with Jeremy Maclin, Jamaal Charles, and Travis Kelce. Alex Smith will never be an All-Pro, but he has won 30 games in three seasons with Kansas City. Factoring in second-year receiver Chris Conley and the development of center MItch Morse, this unit should be potent.
Kansas City is in the NFL’s toughest division, but it looks to be the most complete team. After breaking their 22-year playoff hex with a win last year over the Houston Texans, the Chiefs should have a deep postseason run. If they earn home-field advantage, any team would be hard-pressed to beat Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium.
The potential fly in the ointment is Justin Houston. Houston is still recovering from an ACL injury and is sidelined for at least the first six games of the season. Without him, 2014 first-round pick Dee Ford has to become a factor. If Houston can return quickly or Ford matures, the Chiefs are a true contender.
Record prediction: 12-4
CHARLOTTE, NC – JANUARY 17: Quarterback Cam Newton
4. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers enjoyed a magical season in 2015, right up until the clock struck midnight in Super Bowl 50. Carolina started the season with 14 consecutive victories and hammered both the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks in the playoffs, only to lay the proverbial egg against the Denver Broncos.
This year, Carolina will have a different look. First-Team All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman is with the Washington Redskins, leaving a massive hole in the secondary. While the front seven could make a strong argument for being the best in football, the defensive backs leave plenty of questions.
Offensively, the return of third-year receiver Kelvin Benjamin should do wonders for the vertical passing attack. While quarterback Cam Newton won the Most Valuable Player award, he only threw for 3,837 yards while completing 59.8 percent of this throws. Benjamin’s return along with the development of Devin Funchess should be a huge help.
Carolina faces a tougher schedule this season with the AFC West on the docket, but 11 or 12 wins remains in the question. The Panthers should feast on a middling NFC South, maybe sweeping their three foes. If the Panthers want home-field advantage in January, that might need to happen.
Record prediction: 11-5
DENVER, CO – JANUARY 24: Rob Gronkowski
3. New England Patriots
Even without Tom Brady for the first four games of the season, the Patriots will roll to the AFC East title once again. New England remains the best team in the AFC, something they have arguably been now for three seasons.
The Patriots added another dynamic tight end in Martellus Bennett via trade with the Chicago Bears, giving Rob Gronkowski a bona fide running mate. If Gronkowski and super slot receiver Julian Edelman can stay healthy, Brady has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal.
New England’s big issue is going to be the pass rush. The Patriots traded away Chandler Jones for a second-round pick and guard Jonathan Cooper, losing their top rusher. In addition, Rob Ninkovich will miss at least one month with a triceps injury, further limiting options in Bill Belichick’s arsenal.
All that said, Belichick schemes better than anybody in recent NFL history. It would be shocking if New England loses more than four games, even with Jimmy Garoppolo running the show through September. Once Brady gets back and finds his rhythm, the Patriots will be back and a threat to reach their seventh Super Bowl in the Brady era.
Record prediction: 12-4
GREEN BAY, WI – JANUARY 03: Aaron Rodgers
2. Green Bay Packers
The Packers are poised to make a run at the Super Bowl for this first time since 2009. Green Bay is getting Jordy Nelson back from a torn ACL and seeing the maturation of Ty Montgomery and Davante Adams, two of the more intriguing receivers in the league.
Of course, the headliner is quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers, 32, is coming off a rare down season in 2015. Without Nelson, Rodgers managed only 3,821 passing yards, the lowest number of his career since becoming the starter in 2008 when he plays at least 15 games.
The defense continues to revolve around Clay Matthews Jr. and Julius Peppers, who combined for 17 sacks in 2015. The secondary will be a strength with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett providing one of the best safety duos in the game. Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers should be dialing up blitzes from every angle, something that has long been his specialty.
With a relatively easy schedule and a loaded roster, the Packers could force the road to the Super Bowl go through Lambeau Field. With Rodgers poised to bounce back and a defense that could land within the top 10, Green Bay has every reason to believe in another championship run.
Record prediction: 13-3
GLENDALE, AZ – JANUARY 16: Cornerback Patrick Peterson
1. Arizona Cardinals
If Arizona is ever going to win its first Super Bowl, now is the time. The Cardinals are stacked on both sides of the ball and are coached by one of the best in Bruce Arians. Since coming to the desert, Arians has posted three consecutive winning seasons, something this franchise had not seen since 1974-76 when Don Coryell stalked the sideline.
The Cardinals have some age on the offense, especially in Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald. At 36 and 33 years old, respectively, the time to strike is now for these veterans. Palmer is finally behind a quality offensive line and has weapons galore, ranging from Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd to David Johnson and John Brown.
The strength of the team might end up being defensively, though. Arizona is loaded up front with the additions of Chandler Jones (via trade from New England) and Robert Nkemdiche, a first-round selection with loads of potential. Should those moves pan out, a talented secondary featuring Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson gets even better.
While the NFC is the tougher of the two conferences, Arizona has the chops to come out on top and represent the group in Houston come February. The Cardinals have no excuse not to reach the pinnacle for the first time since 1947.
Record prediction: 13-3
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