Sweating It Out

By Bob Pockrass

Aric Almirola has just two top-10s in road courses in his career and he faces a must-win situation Sunday in the elimination race on the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course.

And yet, as most competitors are, he still sees the Bank of America 400 as an opportunity to advance thanks to NASCAR’s win-and-advance playoff system.

C’mon – really? Almirola’s strength has never been the twists and turns of road-course racing.

“The strategy is go race,” he said. “There is no reason to be conservative. There is no reason to worry about risk management.

“I think it plays out a lot differently for us and for me particularly, behind the wheel, just in the way that I race and the way that the restarts go and the way that I attack the race track.”

Four drivers will be eliminated after the race Sunday, cutting the NASCAR championship-eligible drivers from 12 to eight. Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin, winners at Las Vegas and Talladega, already have clinched spots in the next round.

Here is who is sweating and who is not going into the race Sunday:

No sweat: Kevin Harvick (+68 on current cutoff)

Harvick just needs eight points, something he could earn in the opening stage, to not even have to worry about where he finishes and know he has a spot in the next round. If not, a 29th-place finish clinches it for him.

Even if he finished last, the chances of him being eliminated are slim. For instance, he is automatically in unless one of the four drivers outside the cutoff wins the race.

And have we mentioned that his two finishes on the Charlotte road course have been third and ninth?

He’s in.

Little sweat: Chase Elliott (+44), Brad Keselowski (+41), Martin Truex Jr. (+32)

Elliott and Truex have four wins apiece on road courses in their careers, with Elliott having won the last three Cup races on road courses at Watkins Glen and Charlotte last year, and then the Daytona road course this year. The driver who won before him? Truex at Sonoma, whose last four road-course finishes are first, second, seventh and third.

Keselowski has six top-5 finishes on road courses and nine top-10s.

That is why these drivers shouldn’t sweat.

Elliott is in, no matter what anyone else does, if he finishes with 32 points (fifth-place finish if no stage points), Keselowski with 35 points (second) and Truex with 44 points. 

All three of these drivers have at least one top-10 on the Charlotte road course. They know how to get it done and they should.

“The worst thing you can do is just sit there and play the numbers game,” Elliott said. “It’s like I had a teacher tell me in high school one time: ‘Don’t come into my final exam just figuring out what you have to make to pass.’

“I feel like that’s what I’m doing when I start sitting here and thinking about what to do on points. So, I’m going to take her advice and try not to do that this week and just focus on trying to run good.”

Big sweat: Alex Bowman (+22), Joey Logano (+21)

What makes these drivers sweat is if somehow Kyle Busch or one of the other drivers below the cutoff pull off the upset and win, making it come down to a battle between Bowman and Logano for the final spot.

And even if that happens, both these drivers have not finished outside the top-10 at the Charlotte road course. Bowman has a second and a fourth, and Logano has a pair of 10th-place finishes.

At Daytona earlier this year, Logano was ninth and Bowman was 12th on that road course.

“I’m still as stressed out as ever,” Bowman said. “We just need to go out and have a solid day.

“[That track] has been good to us over the last couple of years. Even though it’s been some really hard days, we’ve had some really good finishes.”

These drivers know what it takes to get a good finish at road courses and have proven they can. They just can’t afford a mechanical failure or a potential last-lap tangle.

Upset potential: Kyle Busch (-21 from current cutoff)

Busch has the potential to win, as his career includes four road-course victories and 19 top-10 finishes.

But his two trips to the Charlotte road course have ended with dismal 32nd-place and 37th-place finishes. He was 37th on the Daytona road course earlier this year when a brake issue ruined his day.

“We had a strong car and would have been in contention if we wouldn’t have had our problem,” Busch said.

“So all we can do is try to get track position and keep it as much as we can, get as many stage points as possible, and see what we need to do at the end of the race.”

Yeah, it would be no surprise to see Busch win, but it’s 2020, and his destiny appears to have his playoff hopes end Sunday.

Throw in the towel?: Austin Dillon (-21), Clint Bowyer (-38), Aric Almirola (-48)

For the record, Clint Bowyer does have a road-course win back in 2012 at Sonoma Raceway and has finishes of third and fourth on the Charlotte road course, and sixth at Daytona. The problem for Bowyer is very good won’t be good enough Sunday. For all intents and purposes, he has to win.

Dillon doesn’t need to win in the sense that 21 points could be nearly made up if he has solid opening stages and Logano or Bowman don’t. But that’s pretty unlikely. Dillon missed Cup’s lone road-course race this year because he was suffering from the coronavirus and he has no top-10s on road courses in his career.

Dillon’s finishes on the Charlotte road course are 23rd and 39th.

“It’s not been the greatest place for us,” Dillon said. “But we’re going to work hard, stay on track, and see what we can come out with.”

As mentioned earlier, Almirola has two top-10s on road courses in his career. His best is a 14th at Charlotte.

These drivers will have to take big risks to try to win. They likely will play a strategy of pitting before the end of stages and not get stage points.

That makes sense, except those points could make a difference at the end of the season, as points earned throughout the playoffs determine where playoff drivers finish from fifth to 16th in the final standings.

“I don't want to race for fifth,” Almirola said. “My focus is not to finish fifth, my focus is to try and race for a championship.

“That is what this platform or layout for the NASCAR playoffs allows. Obviously, we are not good on points right now, so we have to win. If we win, we are still in it going into the next round.”

On The Air

Saturday
Xfinity Drive For The Cure 250 (Charlotte road course), 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Sunday
Cup Bank of America 400 (Charlotte road course), 2:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Stat of Note

Only nine drivers in the field Sunday – and only seven of the 12 remaining playoff drivers – have a road-course win in their career.

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They Said It

“I’d like to eliminate running into the tire barriers if we have a fast car like that again.”  – Chase Elliott on last year’s wreck-and-win at the Charlotte road course