NASCAR Cup Series

NASCAR Contender Rankings: The Heat Is On Kyle Larson As Drivers Close In

Updated Oct. 19, 2026 2:17 p.m. ET

The Chase field certainly tightened up after Phoenix. And now there are more drivers who can feel better about their chances at winning the title.

Here’s a look at how I view their chances, as six drivers sit within 56 points of leader Kyle Larson heading into the Cup race at Talladega Superspeedway.

This is the eighth race of the 10-race Chase, which will finish with trips at Martinsville and Homestead.

On The Verge (Alphabetical Order):

Chris Buescher (RFK Racing No. 17 Ford, -204 points behind leader): Buescher finished 22nd at Phoenix and probably just wants this Chase to end. He’ll have to fight at Talladega to avoid elimination, as any driver 153 or more points behind will mathematically be out of the hunt.

William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet, -190): Byron finished sixth in the opening stage but wound up 21st at Phoenix. He still seeks his first Cup win of the year.

Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet, -149): Elliott stayed out on old tires instead of pitting late, a decision that resulted in a third-place finish at Phoenix. It was his best finish since his win in May at Texas.

Carson Hocevar (Spire Motorsports No. 77 Chevrolet, -158): Hocevar placed 12th at Phoenix and now heads back to the track where he earned his only career Cup win.

Ryan Preece (RFK Racing No. 60 Ford, -211): Preece placed 18th at Phoenix and will try to avoid elimination at Talladega.

Daniel Suárez (Spire Motorsports No. 7 Chevrolet, -188): Suárez finished seventh at Phoenix, his first top 10 of The Chase.

Contender Rankings

10.

Austin Cindric, Team Penske No. 2 Ford (-130)

Cindric finished 19th at Phoenix, missing out on an opportunity to get closer to 100 points behind Larson. He won the spring 2025 race at Talladega and was eighth in April. He has one career top five at Martinsville and no career top 10s at Homestead.

Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing No. 54 Toyota (-132)

Gibbs had to start at the rear at Phoenix because of an alternator change. He stayed out late on old tires and ended up 10th. He has one top five at Talladega (he crashed out in the spring), one top five at Martinsville and no top fives at Homestead. He would need a career-defining run to win the title.

Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing No. 23 Toyota (-162)

Wallace appeared to be the car to beat late in the race at Phoenix, but a speeding penalty on his final pit stop ruined any chances he had for the victory. He finished 17th. Wallace earned his first career victory in 2021 at Talladega and had a string of three top 10s there snapped in April when he crashed out of the event. He has two career top fives at Martinsville and one at Homestead.

Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota (-56)

Reddick snapped a 23-race winless streak at Phoenix, where he cut 58 points off his deficit to Larson. He’s suddenly back in the championship mix, and next week at Talladega will be key. Reddick sat on the pole there in the spring but finished 14th at the track where he won in 2024. He doesn’t have a top five at Martinsville but won at Homestead in 2024.

Joey Logano, Team Penske No. 22 Ford (-44)

Logano swept the stages and finished sixth at Phoenix to cut 48 points into Larson’s lead. He can win at Talladega or Martinsville, and if he does, he’ll have a shot at Homestead. Logano has three career wins at Talladega, one at Martinsville and one at Homestead. He has not finished in the top 10 at Talladega, though, since a third-place finish there in 2021.

Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota (-31)

It doesn’t seem like this will be the year for Hamlin, as he keeps failing to capitalize on potentially good days in The Chase. A flat tire and speeding penalty resulted in a 28th-place finish at Phoenix, where he still cut 18 points into Larson’s lead ahead of him. Hamlin has two career wins at Talladega (in 2014 and 2020) but has just one top 10 there in his last five starts. He has six career wins at Martinsville (he sat on the pole and finished second there in the spring) and three at Homestead.

Ryan Blaney, Team Penske No. 12 Ford (-40)

Blaney knows how to win at Talladega and Martinsville, and he enters those next two races coming off a second-place finish at Phoenix — a place where he had won the last two Cup races. He cut 45 points into Larson’s lead on him and now can at least taste having a shot. He has thrived at Talladega with three career wins and six top-fives (but has crashed out in three of the last four races there). He also has won twice at Martinsville (the elimination races in 2023 and 2024).

Chase Briscoe, Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota (-24)

Briscoe couldn’t make it three wins in a row, but his eighth-place finish helped him cut 41 points into Larson’s (what was safe) cushion on him. He won at Talladega a year ago, and a repeat of that would be a huge boost (he was 29th in April). He has no wins at Martinsville and Homestead, with three career top fives at those tracks.

Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota (-5)

Bell doesn’t love speedway racing, but he doesn’t have to love it to have a shot of taking over the points lead at Talladega. He cut 46 points into Larson’s lead on him, thanks to a fourth-place finish at Phoenix. He hasn’t had a top five at Talladega since 2021. He has one career win at Martinsville and one at Homestead.

Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet (Leader, +5)

Larson needed all the cushion he built early in The Chase as he struggled at Phoenix, running 20-25th for much of the race before a blown tire relegated him to 34th place. It was a three-point day for the reigning champion. He is expected to be the favorite at Homestead, but now he needs to get there (preferably with the points lead) to be in control of his destiny in trying to win a third title. He crashed at Talladega in April, but he has a second and a fourth there in his last four starts. He has one career win at Martinsville and two at Homestead.