Major League Baseball

2022 World Series odds: Super 6 picks, best bets for Phillies-Astros Game 2

Updated Oct. 29, 2022 4:29 p.m. ET

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By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class, the time has come for your final exam: the World Series. Nothing gets better than this.

Hopefully, you've studied hard this season, learned new tools, and made a few extra bucks in the process.  Remember to keep your eyes on your own papers for this last stretch because we’re going to go over Game 2, overall series thoughts and some Super 6 fun.

So let's dive in, with odds, of course, courtesy of FOX Bet!

Who is going to take home the title - Astros or Phillies?

Ben Verlander and Alex Curry break down the World Series

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Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler) at Houston Astros (Valdez) (8:03 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Is there something inherently special about the Phillies being able to make comebacks? 

It does seem like every Phillies win probability model looks like a roller coaster. According to Baseball Savant, at one point early in Game 1 of the World Series, the Astros had a 94% chance of winning before the Phillies tied the game in the fifth inning. The rest of the game speaks for itself. In the clincher in the NLCS, the Padres had a 79% chance of winning before Bryce Harper capped off that comeback. 

Often in later innings — and especially in a series — hitters are seeing a pitcher for the second or third time, or perhaps a reliever they've seen recently. If we only look at each ball club after the trade deadline and isolate the current hitters for their teams, from the fifth inning onward, Philadelphia has the third-best expected batting average (.248). The Astros are almost tied with them (.247). It's one reason why if runs will be scored, it'll be later in the game. 

Another reason involves the starting pitchers themselves. Last season, Zack Wheeler finished second in National League Cy Young voting. He had the fifth-best ERA, recorded more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings and allowed fewer than 0.7 home runs per nine innings. Maintaining that performance is strenuous for anyone, especially if they are dealing with a forearm injury, causing them to miss a month of the season. But Wheeler always had the velocity and command — especially with his fastball — to be formidable in the postseason, and he's proving it this year. 

As for Framber Valdez, his success can be summarized using a statistic called expected isolated power (xISO), which uses exit velocity and launch angle to come up with probabilities contact made will go for extra bases. Because Valdez causes so many ground balls, his xISO is second-best in baseball (.102). 

As for my best bets, I have a few thoughts. Because both batting orders will have a tough time against these starting pitchers in the early innings but more success later in the game, I am looking at a game that remains close throughout. This is why I like the Phillies to cover the run line (like in Game). 

If you are feeling frisky, I'm also leaning under the strikeout totals for both Wheeler and Valdez.

PICK: Phillies (+1 run line at FOX Bet)

Now, for the Super 6 question-and-answer portion of class.

Super 6 Contest Picks

How many total runs will be scored in the game?

The goal for these hitters will be patience so they can get to each other's bullpens as soon as possible. They have the aptitude to do so. I like 8-9.  

Which team will throw the most strikeouts and how many will they have?

I trust Framber Valdez to be effective with the groundball, so even if you think the Astros will win, it'll be the Phillies' pitchers with more strikeouts. 

7 is a good number here.

Which team will have the most hits and how many will they have?

My lean is an Astros win, but Philadelphia's hits will likely be singles, while Houston's will go for extra bases. 

Take the Phillies with 9.

Which team will have the most combined individual baserunners left on base and how many will they have?

When answering these questions, remember that you want to have the likeliest scenario planned out, so all of your responses are consistent. Again, the Phillies should have more hits that are less damaging, but Valdez causes a lot of groundballs, causing them to strand fewer baserunners. 

7-8 makes sense here.

Which team will have the most at-bats and how many will they have?

If there are seven or eight baserunners stranded, and you assume a handful of double plays, then you're assuming a higher number for this one.

I like 36.

Which team will win and by how many runs?

Because I expect a tight game where both batting orders "wake up" at the same time, I have the Astros winning by one run. 

Class dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football.  Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports. 

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