College Football

Miami vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Odds, Picks for CFP Fiesta Bowl Semifinal

Published Jan. 8, 2026 9:02 a.m. ET

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The Miami Hurricanes (12-2) are the favorites, but by less than a touchdown (-3.5), in one of this season's College Football Playoff National Championship Semifinals, where they will oppose the Ole Miss Rebels (13-1) at State Farm Stadium on January 8, 2026, starting at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. The over/under is 52.5 for this game.

The Hurricanes beat the Ohio State Buckeyes, 24-14, in their last game. The Rebels' last game was against the Georgia Bulldogs, and they won by a score of 39-34.

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Miami (FL) vs. Ole Miss Game Information & Odds

When: Thursday, January 8, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
TV: ESPN
Streaming: FOX One + ESPN Bundle

Miami (FL) vs. Ole Miss Prediction

Miami is taking down Ole Miss tonight, and the numbers back it up. The Hurricanes carry a 62.4% implied probability to win, and their defense has been the driving force behind that confidence. Miami is allowing only 13.1 points per game this season and has been even tougher in the playoff, giving up just 17 total points across its past two wins.

Ole Miss brings a high-powered offense that is averaging 37.6 points, but this matchup sets up poorly for the Rebels. Miami’s defense is built to handle tempo and physicality, and it should be able to slow Ole Miss enough to control the game. Quarterback Carson Beck has been sharp, completing 74.2% of his passes, and Miami’s ability to win at the line of scrimmage gives him a steady platform to operate.

There are also questions surrounding Ole Miss off the field, with Lane Kiffin departing for LSU and creating an obvious distraction at the worst possible time. Miami’s depth, experience and defensive consistency should ultimately be the difference. Look for the Hurricanes to punch their ticket to the national championship game with a 30-24 win.

Pick ATS: Miami (-3.5)
Pick OU: Under (52.5)
Prediction: Miami 30, Ole Miss 24

Prediction provided by FOX Sports' Sports AI. Download the FOX Sports App for free access to Sports AI.

Learn more about the Miami Hurricanes vs. the Ole Miss Rebels game on FOX Sports!

Miami (FL) vs. Ole Miss Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Hurricanes 28, Rebels 24.
The Hurricanes have a 62.4% chance to win this game per the moneyline's implied probability. The Rebels have a 41.7% implied probability.
Miami (FL) has won nine games against the spread this season, while failing to cover five times.
Ole Miss has covered nine times in 14 chances against the spread this year.

Miami (FL) vs. Ole Miss: 2025 Stats Comparison

	Miami (FL)	Ole Miss
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	31.6 (20)	37.6 (6)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	13.1 (5)	20.4 (43)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	13 (26)	13 (26)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	25 (10)	13 (97)

Miami (FL) 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Carson Beck	QB	3,313 YDS (74.2%) / 27 TD / 10 INT 56 RUSH YDS / 1 RUSH TD / 4.3 RUSH YPG
Mark Fletcher	RB	947 YDS / 10 TD / 78.9 YPG / 5.4 YPC 16 REC / 132 REC YDS / 2 REC TD / 13.2 REC YPG
Malachi Toney	WR	94 REC / 1,008 YDS / 8 TD / 72 YPG
CharMar Brown	RB	401 YDS / 6 TD / 30.8 YPG / 3.8 YPC 17 REC / 120 REC YDS / 2 REC TD / 13.3 REC YPG
Akheem Mesidor	DL	50 TKL / 9 TFL / 10.5 SACK
Jakobe Thomas	DB	59 TKL / 4 TFL / 3.5 SACK / 5 INT
Keionte Scott	DB	56 TKL / 8 TFL / 5 SACK / 2 INT
Rueben Bain Jr.	DL	40 TKL / 9 TFL / 8.5 SACK / 1 INT

Ole Miss 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Trinidad Chambliss	QB	3,660 YDS (66.4%) / 21 TD / 3 INT 520 RUSH YDS / 8 RUSH TD / 37.1 RUSH YPG
Kewan Lacy	RB	1,464 YDS / 23 TD / 104.6 YPG / 5 YPC 28 REC / 173 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 13.3 REC YPG
Harrison Wallace III	WR	57 REC / 894 YDS / 4 TD / 63.9 YPG
De'Zhaun Stribling	WR	50 REC / 734 YDS / 6 TD / 52.4 YPG
Suntarine Perkins	LB	62 TKL / 5 TFL / 3 SACK / 1 INT
Princewill Umanmielen	DL	41 TKL / 8 TFL / 8 SACK / 1 INT
T.J. Dudley	LB	78 TKL / 2 TFL / 0.5 SACK
William Echoles	DL	56 TKL / 10 TFL / 4.5 SACK