College Football Week 5 Odds, 5 Sleeper Games To Watch

No. 5 Ohio State hits the road for the first time since its loss to No. 1 Texas, traveling to Kinnick Stadium to face No. 14 Iowa in this week’s Big Noon Kickoff matchup.

Mississippi State has moved beyond sleeper status. Quarterback Kamario Taylor has played his way into the Heisman conversation and led the Bulldogs to No. 16 in the AP poll. This week, they host No. 7 Alabama in Starkville.

Those matchups headline a slate packed with conference and playoff implications. Here are five sleeper games to watch and wager on in Week 4 of college football.

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Spread: Penn State -2.5

The Outlook: The Nittany Lions fell out of the Top 25 and saw their undefeated season end with a 24-20 loss to Wisconsin. The good thing for Penn State is that everything is still in front of it, but the road doesn't get any easier from here, and the pressure is increasing. Penn State was held to three points in the second half, while quarterback Rocco Becht finished with fewer than 125 passing yards for the fourth time in his career.

Northwestern almost joined Oklahoma State in pulling off one of the most surprising upsets of the year. A failed onside kick attempt ended the Wildcats' upset bid against No. 6 Indiana. The Wildcats held the Hoosiers to a season-low 29 points but gave up 271 rushing yards. Quarterback Aiden Chiles threw for 293 yards, the second-most of his career, and completed 75% of his passes in the loss.

Playoff Implications: If Northwestern can have the defending champions on the edge of their seats until the last minute on the road, the Wildcats can definitely give Penn State a fight until the final second. The Nittany Lions can't let the Wildcats hang around and keep this game close, because that's where the danger lies. If Matt Campbell wants to get Penn State back into the playoff conversation, the Nittany Lions must run the table.

Spread: Virginia Tech -3

The Outlook: These undefeated ACC teams kick off under the Friday night lights, and the winner could make its first appearance in next week's Top 25.

Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel made history yesterday with his second game this season with at least six passing touchdowns. He became the first quarterback in ACC history to do so and the first FBS player since 2021. Heintschel is third in the ACC in passing yards with 1,191 and second in passing touchdowns with 13. These numbers could be deceiving if you're just watching the stat sheet. In two games against Power 4 opponents, the Pitt quarterback has zero touchdowns, one interception and only 335 passing yards. In two games against non-Power 4 teams, he has 956 yards and 13 touchdowns.

The last time the Hokies started 4-0 was 2017. James Franklin already has Virginia Tech at 4-0 in his first season. Running back Jeffrey Overton Jr.'s performance helped the Hokies escape Boston College with a 21-14 win. Overton capped off his career day with a 76-yard house call that gave the Hokies the lead and helped him finish with 209 rushing yards.

Playoff Implications: After Louisville's loss to Wake Forest, the ACC's chances of sending a team other than Miami to the CFP got a lot smaller. The next-highest-ranked ACC team is SMU at No. 21. Pitt and Virginia Tech are two of the four remaining undefeated teams in the conference, and after this week, only three will remain.

Spread: USC -9.5

The Outlook: The hype around the Trojans has suddenly gone with the wind after their 41-24 loss to No. 15 Oregon. Now, talks and murmurs surrounding head coach Lincoln Riley's tenure at USC are heating up, but that narrative can change with plenty of the season still left to play. The Trojans still have Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA on the schedule, but first, they have to take care of Washington. Quarterback Jayden Maiava still leads the nation in passing yards (1,499) and passing touchdowns (14).

Head coach Jedd Fisch and Washington suffered their first loss of the season against Minnesota, and their path to the CFP just got a whole lot harder. The Huskies went 1-for-10 on third down and rushed for only 40 yards in the loss, and the run game has been a problem for them all year. Washington averages the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the Big Ten (107.3). It's never a good sign when your quarterback is your team's leading rusher, and that's what Demond Williams Jr. is for the Huskies.

Playoff Implications: If USC wants to make a run at the CFP, it has to be better against top competition. Since Riley took over the program in 2022, the Trojans are 5-14 against AP Top 25 teams and 0-5 against Top 10 teams. USC has shown an ability to bounce back from losses under Riley, going 10-6 in games following a loss, with an average margin of victory of 11.5 points across those 10 wins.

After losing to its first ranked opponent of the season, USC has three more current Top 25 teams on the schedule, two of which are in the Top 10. A loss to an unranked Washington team could completely derail the Trojans playoff hopes and make the hot seat even hotter for Riley.

Spread: Tennessee -7

The Outlook: Tennessee gave up 10 sacks to No. 1 Texas last week but somehow only lost by three points, with a chance to win at the end. The Vols were held to a season-low 70 rushing yards, and that wasn't the help freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon needed. The five-star quarterback had the worst game of his young career, completing only 58% of his passes while throwing for 145 yards and one touchdown in the loss. Brandon has the fewest passing yards among SEC starting quarterbacks, but the good thing for Brandon and the Vols is that this Auburn defense is among the worst in the SEC.

Auburn only needed 21 points to pull out a win over Vanderbilt last week, earning head coach Alex Golesh his first SEC win. Golesh and the Tigers now head out for their first true road game, and they could have a real underlying issue despite being 3-1. Auburn allows 365.8 total yards, 238.8 passing yards and 127 rushing yards per game, all of which rank among the three highest marks in the SEC. Like Washington, Auburn's top rusher is its quarterback, Byrum Brown, and that's never a good sign.

Another issue that could make this game get out of hand quickly is that Auburn has allowed 14 sacks through four games, the most in the SEC, while Tennessee is tied for the most sacks in the country with 19.

Playoff Implications: Head coach Josh Heupel is trying to get the Vols back to the CFP for the first time since 2024, and a three-point loss to the top-ranked team in the country won't eliminate them from contention. Heupel's offense should get back on track against this Auburn defense and run the ball at will. Tennessee is one of two SEC teams with two rushers ranked in the conference's top 10: DeSean Bishop and Daune Morris.

But if the Vols fall to an unranked Auburn team this weekend, they'll have to climb Mount Everest just to get back into the playoff picture.

Spread: Houston -12.5

The Outlook: Houston has scored 30 or more points in three of its first four games, averaging 44.5 points per game, the most in the Big 12. Leading the way is quarterback Conner Weigman. The senior signal-caller is tied for the most passing touchdowns in the conference with 11 while ranking in the top five in passing yards with 947. Weigman is coming off a four-touchdown performance against Georgia Southern, marking the fifth time in his career he's thrown four or more touchdowns in a game.

Even after losing their starting quarterback in the second game of the season, head coach Scott Frost and UCF have found a way to win two straight games, opening conference play with a win over TCU last week. The Knights held the Horned Frogs to 33 rushing yards and forced four turnovers, including on TCU's final two drives. UCF's defense has forced seven turnovers over the last two games, including four interceptions and three fumble recoveries. The Knights have six interceptions this season, the most in the Big 12 and tied for fourth-most in the country.

Playoff Implications: The Cougars lost a heartbreaker to Texas Tech in Week 3, falling short after a failed two-point conversion, but they are still in the hunt for the Big 12 title. However, they can't overlook UCF, even without its starting quarterback. With the Knights' defense creating turnovers and giving their offense extra opportunities, Weigman and the Cougars will need to play a clean game to keep UCF from hanging around. Houston can't afford another loss, especially to an unranked team, with two currently ranked teams still on its schedule.

Bet $10 to win $202.82 if:

• Virginia Tech Moneyline vs. Pitt (-170)
• Penn State vs. Northwestern UNDER 45.5 (-110)
• No. 18 USC vs. Washington OVER 58.5 (-115)
• No. 17 Tennessee (-7.5) vs. Auburn (+100)
• UCF (+12.5) vs. No. 20 Houston (-114)