2025 CFP First-Round Odds: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Expert Picks, Best Bets

I'm just as excited about the College Football Playoff as the next guy, but that doesn't mean I'm loading up my betting slip. 

Specifically, I'm staring at one game — a rematch — that I think will have a result similar to the first time it occurred. 

Let's take a look.

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No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 8 Alabama 

These were two teams I was hoping I could bet against come Playoff time, so, of course, they are playing each other and are seeded higher than their power rating indicates they should be. 

I’ve been fairly critical of the Oklahoma offense, which is by far the lowest rated offensive unit efficiency-wise in the CFP. But in terms of a first-round opponent, the Sooners couldn’t have gotten a better draw than an Alabama team that’s completely reeling. 

The first meeting was a box score domination by the Tide, except for those measly turnovers. Oklahoma’s post-game win expectancy was 5% per Bill Connelly’s SP+. Thing is, Brent Venables’ defense did a number on the Tide offense last year in Norman too. Yes, I know, different quarterbacks, but the best unit on the field will be the Oklahoma defense, and it could make life very tough on a one-dimensional Alabama offense and Ty Simpson. The second-best unit on the field will probably the OU special teams, which has had a knack for blocking kicks and has the best kicker in the country in Tate Sandell. 

I have a hard time seeing Alabama just turn things around and flip the switch given how poorly the Tide finished the year. It probably won't be pretty or high scoring, and that plays right into the script for an Oklahoma victory. 

PICK: Oklahoma (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points or win outright

BEAR BYTES

A few quick notes:

• Last year, favorites went 10-1 SU and 9-2 SU in the CFP. We’ll see if the seeding changes affect those numbers this year.
• Miami has lost 13 of its last 14 postseason games, which includes the 2017 ACC Championship Game loss to Clemson. The Canes have lost six straight and 12 of their last 13 bowl games, last winning a bowl game in 2016.
• This is the first bowl/Playoff team not named Michigan or Texas that Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer will face.

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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