College Basketball

Gonzaga vs UCLA odds: Expert pick, prediction for Sweet 16 game

Updated Mar. 23, 2023 1:19 p.m. ET

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Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The best matchup of the eight Sweet 16 games is a rematch of the classic 2021 Final Four matchup between Gonzaga and UCLA. 

Will the Bruins get revenge for that close overtime loss? Or will Gonzaga best UCLA again?  

The Zags got to the Sweet 16 the same way they always have, and that's with offense. After putting up 84 points against an above-average TCU defense, the Bulldogs are now first in offensive efficiency. 

However, this Gonzaga offense doesn’t feature the collection of superpowers that it did in the past. 

There’s no Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert or Chet Holmgren to pair with Drew Timme, who is still putting up buckets for the squad. Timme, by the way, is averaging 21.1 points per game this season and dropped 28 against TCU in the second round. 

UCLA’s defense ranks second in efficiency and allows the fifth-fewest points in the nation. The Bruins thrive off of not allowing their opponents to score while using turnovers to create easy buckets. UCLA will again be without Jaylen Clark. However, the team hasn't missed a beat on defense with Adem Bona back in the lineup.

The Blue and Gold will be ready for Gonzaga’s offense because conference foe Arizona has helped them prep for this. The Wildcats are led by former Gonzaga assistant Tommy Lloyd, who modeled the Cats offense after the Zags. Arizona pushes the tempo and attempts to score as quickly as possible. And just like the Bulldogs, the athlete that leads them is their forward. 

UCLA faced Arizona three times this season, allowing 58, 73 and 61 points. In those matchups, the Bruins were without their two best defensive players. Essentially, playing Arizona was the test the Bruins needed ahead of the contest with Gonzaga. 

Also, UCLA has a combination of bodies to throw at Drew Timme that will disrupt his rhythm and slow down his scoring opportunities. If UCLA can hold the Zags to the low 70s, the Bruins will win the game. 

The biggest advantage for the Bruins is Gonzaga’s poor defense. In fact, it’s the worst defense Mark Few has had during his successful run with the program. According to Ken Pom, the Zags are ranked 75th in defensive efficiency, which is second to last for the remaining 16 teams in the tournament. 

Additionally, Gonzaga is 218th in defensive two-point shot attempt percentage. This will spell easy baskets for the Bruins, who score nearly 60% of their points from two. In the first couple of tourney games, Jaime Jaquez scored 17 and 24 points, Amari Bailey added 14 and 17 and the team shot 44% from three. This is all without point guard Tyger Campbell adding his usual buckets. Campbell has been ice-cold and has only made two of sixteen shot attempts. I’d expect him to have a better game against the Bulldogs' front-court defenders, who actually don’t do much defending. 

RELATED: Gonzaga wins, but Zags bettors lose

Gonzaga allowed the guards on both Grand Canyon and TCU to lead their teams in scoring in the first two rounds. Unless there’s a lid on the rim, UCLA should be able to score whenever needed against this Zags defense, and that will be enough to win this game. 

Ultimately, UCLA is the better basketball team. I expect the squad's physical style of defense, paired with the Zags' inability to stop opponents from scoring, to lift the Bruins into the Elite Eight. 

PICK: UCLA (-2 at FOX BET) to win by more than 2 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @GeoffSchwartz.

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