Aston Villa vs. Leeds United Prediction, Odds, Picks - Feb 21

Published Feb. 20, 2026 6:55 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

Aston Villa (third) is currently well above Leeds United (15th) in the Premier League, but it hosts Leeds on Saturday at 10 a.m. ET. Below, you can find our prediction for this contest.

In the Premier League, Aston Villa has put up 37 goals in 26 matches (eighth in league), and Leeds has allowed 45 in 26 games (16th). Offensively, Leeds is 10th in the Premier League (36 goals, 1.4 per match). And defensively, Aston Villa is third (27 goals conceded, one per match). In terms of goal differential, Aston Villa is fourth in the Premier League at +10. With 36 goals scored and 45 conceded, Leeds is 16th in the Premier League in goal differential.

Aston Villa took on Brighton & Hove Albion at home in its last match and was victorious by a final score of 1-0. The victorious Aston Villa side took 11 shots, outshooting Brighton by three. Aston Villa were led by zero goals each from 16 scorers, including Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha, in its game versus Brighton. In its most recent outing on Feb. 10, Leeds drew with Chelsea FC 2-2 on the road, while putting up 16 fewer shots than Chelsea FC. Noah Okafor and Lukas Nmecha led Leeds with a goal each.

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Aston Villa vs. Leeds Odds & Betting Lines

Aston Villa vs Leeds Betting Information updated as of February 20, 2026, 4:39 p.m. ET.
Moneyline Favorite	Moneyline Underdog	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds
Aston Villa -118	Leeds +330	2.5	-126	-104

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Aston Villa vs. Leeds Prediction & Pick

Moneyline Pick: Aston Villa -118
Total Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Score Prediction: Aston Villa 2, Leeds 1

Aston Villa vs. Leeds Match Info

Match Day: Saturday, February 21, 2026
Match Time: 10 a.m. ET
Location: Birmingham, England
Stadium: Villa Park
TV: Universo, Peacock Premium
Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Aston Villa's Moneyline Performance

Thus far this season, Aston Villa has gone 9-4-4 in 17 matches as a favorite.
Aston Villa (-118) has been at least this big a favorite in three games, and won two.
The likelihood of Aston Villa winning this match is 54.1%, based on the moneyline.

Aston Villa's Key Players

Name	Games	Goals	Assists	Shots	Chances Created
Morgan Rogers	26	8	6	37	20
Ollie Watkins	25	8	1	32	15
Emiliano Buendia	25	5	2	23	18
Matty Cash	24	3	2	17	16
John McGinn	22	3	2	14	23

Aston Villa's Recent Performance

Opponent	Date	Home/Away	Result	Score	Shots	Opp. Shots
Brighton	2/11/2026	H	W	1-0	11	8
Bournemouth	2/7/2026	A	D	1-1	6	17
Brentford	2/1/2026	H	L	1-0	25	4
Newcastle	1/25/2026	A	W	2-0	14	18
Everton	1/18/2026	H	L	1-0	18	9

Leeds' Moneyline Performance

This season Leeds has been an underdog in 18 matches, and won once.
This season Leeds (+330) has been at least this big an underdog in six games, and won none.
Leeds has a 23.3% chance of winning this match, based on the moneyline.