Chiefs vs. Bills 2024 Championship Game Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan 26

Updated Jan. 26, 2025 4:43 p.m. ET

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In this season's AFC Playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs will play the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs are slight favorites (-1.5). The expected point total for the matchup is set at 49.5.

Keep up with the 2024 NFL season on FOX Sports.

Bills vs. Chiefs: 'NFL on FOX' crew previews AFC Championship Matchup | NFL on FOX

The "NFL on FOX" crew gave a preview for the AFC Championship game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Chiefs vs. Bills Odds & Betting Lines

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Bills (+1.5)
  
• Pick OU: Under (49.5)
  
• Prediction: Bills 24 - Chiefs 23

How to Watch Kansas City vs. Buffalo

• Game Date: Sunday, January 26, 2025
• Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Location: Kansas City, Missouri
• TV: CBS
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Chiefs vs. Bills Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Buffalo has put up three wins versus Kansas City.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Buffalo has tallied 134 points versus Kansas City, while giving up only 127 points.

Kansas City Betting Info

• Against the spread, Kansas City went 7-10-0 during the regular season. It is 0-1-0 ATS in the playoffs.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread six times this season (6-8 ATS) when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites (regular season and playoffs).
• In the regular season, seven of Kansas City's 17 games went over the point total. It is zero of one in terms of topping the over/under in the playoffs.
• The Chiefs won all 14 of the games they were listed as the moneyline favorite in the regular season. They are 1-0 as a moneyline favorite in the playoffs.
• The Chiefs have a 55.6% chance to win this game, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Chiefs Stats

Kansas City's Key Players

Offense

• Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 3,928 yards (seventh in the NFL), 26 touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) and 11 interceptions this year. He averages 245.5 yards per game and 6.8 per attempt, while completing 67.5% of his attempts.
• To go along with his passing statistics, Mahomes also has 307 rushing yards (third on the Chiefs), with two rushing touchdowns.
• Kareem Hunt's rushing output this season includes 728 yards and seven TDs. He is averaging 56.0 yards per game and 3.6 per attempt (43rd in the NFL).
• Hunt's 32 targets through the air have resulted in 23 catches (1.8 per game) for 176 yards (13.5 per game) and zero touchdowns.
• In 16 games played, Xavier Worthy is averaging 39.9 yards and 3.7 receptions per game to total 638 receiving yards and 59 catches. He's been targeted 98 times, and has six receiving touchdowns.
• Travis Kelce averages 6.1 receptions and 51.4 yards per game, and has 823 total receiving yards and 97 catches. He's gotten 133 total targets, and has caught three touchdown passes.

Defense

• On defense for the Chiefs, Nick Bolton has racked up 106 tackles, 11.0 TFL, three sacks, and one interception in 2024.
• Drue Tranquill has 94 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and two sacks this season.
• Justin Reid has collected 85 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and two interceptions this year. He's third on the Chiefs in tackles.
• Chamarri Conner has 1.0 sack in addition to his 4.0 TFL, 70 tackles, and two interceptions this year.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Buffalo's record against the spread in the regular season was 10-7-0. It has an ATS record of 2-0-0 in the postseason.
• As 1.5-point underdogs or greater in the regular season and playoffs, the Bills have two wins ATS (2-1).
• Out of 17 Buffalo games in the regular season, 11 went over the total. As for the postseason, zero of two games have topped the over.
• The Bills were underdogs four times in the regular season and won twice. They are 1-0 in the postseason.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 48.8% chance of a victory for the Bills.

Bills Stats

Buffalo's Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen has passed for 3,731 yards this year, with 28 touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) and six interceptions. He is completing 63.6% of his passes while averaging 233.2 yards per game and 7.7 per attempt.
• He's added 531 yards on the ground (second on the Bills), while scoring 12 rushing touchdowns. He's averaging 33.2 yards per game and 5.2 per attempt.
• James Cook has scored 16 rushing touchdowns, while totaling 1,009 rushing yards (4.9 per carry and 63.1 per game).
• Cook has added 32 receptions (2.0 per game) for 258 yards (16.1 per game) with two receiving touchdowns. He's been targeted 38 times in the passing attack.
• Through 15 games played this season, Khalil Shakir has 76 catches (5.1 receptions per game on 6.7 targets per game) for 821 yards and four receiving touchdowns.
• Ray Davis has scored three touchdowns on the ground, while running for 442 total yards (3.9 per carry and 26.0 per game).
• Davis has also caught 17 pass for 189 yards (10th on the Bills), with three receiving touchdowns. He's been targeted 19 times and averages 11.1 yards per game.

Defense

• Gregory Rousseau's 2024 effort includes 53 tackles, 16.0 TFL, and eight sacks through 16 games.
• Dorian Williams has registered 5.0 TFL and 114 tackles through 16 games.
• Terrel Bernard has intercepted two passes on top of 104 tackles, 5.0 TFL, one sack, and three passes defended during the 2024 season.
• Damar Hamlin has 2.0 TFL, 88 tackles, and two interceptions.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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NFL - Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs - 01/26/2025

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