Rockets vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Picks - Jan. 16

The Minnesota Timberwolves (27-14) face the Houston Rockets (23-15) on January 16, 2026 at Toyota Center. Friday's matchup between the Rockets and the Timberwolves features the Rockets as 4.5-point favorites. The matchup has a point total of 221.5.

Here is everything you need to know to know about the Rockets-Timberwolves game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Rockets vs. Timberwolves Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Friday, January 16, 2026 at 9:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Toyota Center in Houston, Texas
• TV: ESPN and SCHN
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Rockets vs. Timberwolves Prediction

ATS Pick: Timberwolves (+ 4.5)
O/U Pick: Over (221.5)
Score Prediction: Rockets 118 - Timberwolves 114

Rockets vs. Timberwolves Betting Insights

• The Rockets and their opponent have combined to score over 221.5 points, the current matchup's over/under, in 21 of 38 games this season.
• A total of 31 Timberwolves games this season (out of 41) have had more than 221.5 total points scored.
• The two teams average a combined 16 more points per game (237.5) than this game's total of 221.5 points.
• Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 225.4 points per game, 3.9 more than the point total in this matchup.
• Houston has been chosen as the favorite in 35 games this year and has walked away with the win 22 times (62.9%) in those games.
• Minnesota has been chosen as underdogs in nine games this year and has walked away with the win three times (33.3%) in those games.
• In the last four head-to-head meetings, Houston and Minnesota have a tied 2-2 record.
• The teams are each 2-2 against the spread in those outings.
• The Rockets have been the favorites in six of their previous seven contests, and came up short against the spread in all seven.

Rockets Recent Trends

• Over their last 10 contests, the Rockets have two wins against the spread, and are 5-5 overall.
• Houston and its opponents have combined to score an average of 223.4 points in its last 10 games, 1.9 more than the 221.5 over/under in this matchup.
• The Rockets have 18 wins against the spread in 38 games this season.
• Houston is 11-17 ATS when favored by 4.5 points or more this season.
• The Rockets have hit the over in 46.3% of their opportunities this year (19 times over 41 games with a set point total).
• The Rockets record 117.2 points per game, only 2.6 more points than the 114.6 the Timberwolves allow.
• Houston has a 15-8 record against the spread and an 18-5 record overall when putting up more than 114.6 points.
• The Rockets make 47.8% of their shots from the field this season, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the Timberwolves have allowed to their opponents (46%).
• When playing at home, the Rockets sport a worse record against the spread (6-9-0) compared to their ATS record in road games (12-11-0).
• Houston has eclipsed the over/under in seven of 15 home games (46.7%). It has fared better in away games, topping the total in 12 of 23 matchups (52.2%).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Rockets have picked up the win in 12 of 14 games at home, good for a .857 winning percentage. They have won 10 of 21 games on the road (.476) as a moneyline favorite.

Rockets Recent Stats

Rockets Leaders

• Kevin Durant puts up 25.9 points, 4.4 assists and 5.4 boards per contest.
• Amen Thompson posts 18.7 points, 5.1 assists and 7.7 boards per contest.
• Alperen Sengun posts 21.5 points, 9 boards and 6.5 assists per game, shooting 50.8% from the floor.
• Jabari Smith Jr. averages 15.1 points, 1.8 assists and 7 rebounds.
• Reed Sheppard posts 12.8 points, 2.6 boards and 3.2 assists per game. At the other end he averages 1.4 steals and 0.6 blocks.

Rockets Player Props

Timberwolves Recent Trends

• The Timberwolves have gone 7-3 over their past 10 games, with a 6-4 record against the spread during that span.
• Minnesota and its opponents have combined to score an average of 236.2 combined points in its last 10 games, 14.7 more than the 221.5 over/under in this matchup.
• In the Timberwolves' 41 games this year, they have 18 wins against the spread.
• This year, Minnesota has an ATS record of 3-1 in its four games as an underdog of 4.5 points or more.
• Timberwolves games this year have gone over the total in 20 of 41 opportunities (48.8%).
• The Timberwolves' 120.3 points per game are 9.5 more points than the 110.8 the Rockets allow to opponents.
• When it scores more than 110.8 points, Minnesota is 17-15 against the spread and 24-8 overall.
• The Timberwolves' 48.6% shooting percentage from the field this season is 2.4 percentage points higher than the Rockets have allowed to their opponents (46.2%).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Timberwolves have a lower winning percentage at home (.429, 9-12-0 record) than on the road (.450, 9-11-0).
• In terms of the over/under, Minnesota's games have finished over less frequently at home (seven of 21, 33.3%) than on the road (13 of 20, 65%).
• This season the Timberwolves are 14-4 at home when moneyline favorites (.778 winning percentage). Away they are 10-4 (.714).

Timberwolves Recent Stats

Timberwolves Leaders

• Julius Randle provides 22.2 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game for the Timberwolves.
• The Timberwolves are receiving 11 points, 11.4 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game from Rudy Gobert this season.
• The Timberwolves are getting 14.6 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game from Naz Reid this season.
• Donte DiVincenzo is averaging 13.4 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists per contest. He is making 42.1% of his shots from the field and 38.1% from 3-point range, with 3.1 treys per contest.
• Jaden McDaniels is putting up 14.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per contest. He is sinking 52.1% of his shots from the field and 41.9% from beyond the arc, with 1.4 triples per contest.

Timberwolves Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.