Heat vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Odds, Picks - Feb. 21

The Memphis Grizzlies (21-33) will try to halt a four-game road losing skid at the Miami Heat (30-27) on February 21, 2026. Miami is a strong 10-point favorite against Memphis when the Heat play the Grizzlies on Saturday. A 238.5-point total has been set for the game.

Here's everything you need to know to know about the Heat-Grizzlies game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Heat vs. Grizzlies Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Saturday, February 21, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida
• TV: FDSSUN, FDSSE, and WPLG
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Heat vs. Grizzlies Prediction

ATS Pick: Grizzlies (+ 10)
O/U Pick: Under (238.5)
Score Prediction: Heat 121 - Grizzlies 113

Heat vs. Grizzlies Betting Insights

• This year, the Heat games have gone over 238.5 points scored, their current matchup's over/under, 26 (out of 57) times.
• This season, 18 of the Grizzlies' 54 games have had a combined total of more than 238.5 points scored.
• The two teams average a combined 3.4 fewer points per game (235.1) than this matchup's over/under of 238.5 points.
• Opponents of these teams have averaged a combined 234.2 points per game, 4.3 fewer than the over/under in this matchup.
• Miami has been chosen as the favorite in 28 games this year and has walked away with the win 17 times (60.7%) in those games.
• Memphis has been an underdog in 36 games this season and has come away with the win nine times (25%) in those contests.
• Miami has won its one head-to-head meeting with Memphis.
• The Heat also have a 1-0 record against the spread when playing the Grizzlies.
• The Grizzlies have been the favorite in one of their previous four games, and covered the spread in all four.

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have a 6-4 record against the spread while finishing 5-5 overall in their last 10 games.
• Miami and its opponents have combined to score an average of 235.2 points in its last 10 games, 3.3 less than the 238.5 over/under in this matchup.
• Against the spread, the Heat are 33-23-1 this season.
• This season, Miami has won ATS in each of its two games as a favorite of 10 points or more.
• Heat games this year have eclipsed the over/under 29 times in 54 opportunities (53.7%).
• The Heat put up 119.7 points per game, only 2.3 more points than the 117.4 the Grizzlies give up.
• Miami has a 25-6 record against the spread and a 22-7 record overall when scoring more than 117.4 points.
• This season, the Heat have a 46.3% shooting percentage from the field, which is 0.6% lower than the 46.9% of shots the Grizzlies' opponents have knocked down.
• The Heat have done a better job covering the spread in away games (19-10-1) than they have at home (14-13-0).
• Miami has exceeded the total in 14 of 27 home games (51.9%), compared to 15 of 30 road games (50%).
• As a moneyline favorite, the Heat have won a lower percentage of their home games (.550) compared to away games (.750).

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Bam Adebayo posts 18.4 points, 2.8 assists and 9.9 boards per game.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. averages 15.1 points, 4.7 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game.
• Norman Powell puts up 22.8 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 1.2 steals and 0.2 blocks.
• Andrew Wiggins puts up 15.9 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, shooting 47.0% from the field and 39.8% from beyond the arc with 2.0 made 3-pointers per contest.
• Kel'el Ware averages 11.4 points, 0.6 assists and 9.3 boards.

Heat Player Props

Grizzlies Recent Trends

• The Grizzlies are 6-4 against the spread and 3-7 overall over their last 10 games.
• Memphis' average total over the last 10 games is 7.0 points fewer than the 238.5 total listed for this matchup.
• In the Grizzlies' 54 games this season, they have 25 wins against the spread.
• Memphis has been underdogs by 10 points or more seven times this year and are 3-4 ATS in those games.
• Grizzlies games this year have eclipsed the over/under 46.3% of the time (25 out of 54 games with a set point total).
• The Grizzlies' 115.4 points per game are just 1.4 fewer points than the 116.8 the Heat give up to opponents.
• Memphis is 13-9 against the spread and 13-9 overall when it scores more than 116.8 points.
• The Grizzlies have shot at a 45.9% rate from the field this season, 0.2 percentage points greater than the 45.7% shooting opponents of the Heat have averaged.
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Grizzlies have a lower winning percentage at home (.444, 12-15-0 record) than on the road (.481, 13-13-1).
• In 2025-26, a higher percentage of Memphis' games have finished above the over/under at home (51.9%, 14 of 27) compared to on the road (40.7%, 11 of 27).
• The Grizzlies, as moneyline favorites, have won a lower percentage of games at home (8-5) than away (4-1) this season.

Grizzlies Recent Stats

Grizzlies Leaders

• Cam Spencer generates 11.6 points, 2.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game for the Grizzlies.
• The Grizzlies are getting 12.1 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game from Jaylen Wells this year.
• Walter Clayton Jr. is averaging 6.9 points, 2.0 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. He is draining 40.0% of his shots from the floor and 29.8% from 3-point range, with 1.0 treys per game.
• The Grizzlies are receiving 9.3 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game from GG Jackson this year.
• Taylor Hendricks is averaging 5.5 points, 3.3 rebounds and 0.8 assists per game. He is sinking 43.6% of his shots from the field.

Grizzlies Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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