Hawks vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks - Dec. 26

The Atlanta Hawks (15-16) carry a four-game skid into a home contest against the Miami Heat (15-15), who have dropped three straight. Friday's matchup between the Hawks and the Heat features the Hawks as small 3.5-point favorites. The matchup's point total is 250.5.

Take a look at everything you need to know to know about the Hawks-Heat game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Hawks vs. Heat Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Friday, December 26, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
• Where: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
• TV: FDSSUN, FDSSE, WANF, and Peachtree Sports Network
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Hawks vs. Heat Prediction

ATS Pick: Heat (+ 3.5)
O/U Pick: Under (250.5)
Score Prediction: Hawks 120 - Heat 119

Hawks vs. Heat Betting Insights

• The Hawks have played 10 games with more than 250.5 points scored, their current matchup's total, this season.
• Eight of the Heat's 30 games this season have gone over 250.5 total points scored.
• These teams average a combined 238 points per game, 12.5 fewer points than the over/under of 250.5 set for this matchup.
• Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 237.2 points per game, 13.3 fewer than the over/under in this matchup.
• Atlanta has been chosen as the favorite in 17 games this year and has walked away with the win eight times (47.1%) in those games.
• Miami has been victorious in seven, or 43.8%, of the 16 contests it has been chosen as an underdog in this season.
• Miami has a 3-2 record in the last five head-to-head games against Atlanta.
• The Heat also have a 3-2 record against the spread when playing the Hawks.
• In their previous six games the Hawks have failed to beat the spread, and they were favored in four of them.

Hawks Recent Trends

• The Hawks are 3-7 against the spread and 2-8 overall over their past 10 contests.
• Atlanta's average total over the last 10 games is 13.2 points fewer than the 250.5 total listed for this matchup.
• In the Hawks' 31 games this season, they have 14 wins against the spread.
• This season, Atlanta has an against the spread record of 3-8 in its 11 games as a favorite of 3.5 points or more.
• The Hawks have hit the over in 60% of their opportunities this year (18 times over 30 games with a set point total).
• The 118.8 points per game the Hawks record are only 1.2 more points than the Heat give up (117.6).
• When Atlanta scores more than 117.6 points, it is 10-7 against the spread and 10-7 overall.
• This season, the Hawks have a 48.3% shooting percentage from the field, which is 3.1% higher than the 45.2% of shots the Heat's opponents have hit.
• The Hawks have done a better job covering the spread when playing on the road (10-7-0) than they have at home (4-10-0).
• Atlanta has exceeded the over/under in a lower percentage of games at home (50%) than road games (64.7%).
• The Hawks have won a lower percentage of their games as a moneyline favorite when playing at home, going 2-5 (.286). In away games as a moneyline favorite, they own a record of 6-4 (.600).

Hawks Recent Stats

Hawks Leaders

• Jalen Johnson averages 23.8 points, 8.3 assists and 10.5 rebounds per game.
• Onyeka Okongwu posts 15.7 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists per contest. At the other end, he averages 1.0 steal and 1.1 blocks.
• Dyson Daniels posts 11.5 points, 5.7 assists and 6.4 boards per contest.
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker averages 20.3 points, 3.3 assists and 3.5 boards.
• Zaccharie Risacher posts 11.1 points, 3.0 boards and 1.6 assists per contest, shooting 45.9% from the field and 33.6% from beyond the arc with 1.5 made 3-pointers per game.

Hawks Player Props

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have a 4-6 record against the spread while finishing 2-8 overall over their last 10 contests.
• Miami's average total over the last 10 games is 15.3 points fewer than the 250.5 over/under given for this matchup.
• The Heat are 16-13-1 against the spread this season.
• So far this year, Miami has been installed as underdogs by a 3.5-point margin or more 11 times and are 6-4-1 ATS in those games.
• The Heat have hit the over 50% of the time this year (15 of 30 games with a set point total).
• The Heat's 119.2 points per game are just 0.4 fewer points than the 119.6 the Hawks allow to opponents.
• When it scores more than 119.6 points, Miami is 11-3 against the spread and 9-5 overall.
• The Heat's 47.0% shooting percentage from the field this season is the same as the Hawks have given up to their opponents.
• The Heat's winning percentage against the spread, both home and away, is .533. They are 8-7-0 ATS on their home court and 8-6-1 on the road.
• In terms of the over/under, Miami's games have gone over six of 15 times at home (40%), and nine of 15 on the road (60%).
• In 2025-26 when moneyline favorites, the Heat have a better winning percentage at home (.583, 7-5 record) than on the road (.500, 1-1).

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Kel'el Ware puts up 12.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 0.6 assists per game for the Heat.
• On a per-game basis, Jaime Jaquez Jr. gives the Heat 15.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists. He also averages 0.7 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
• Norman Powell is averaging 23.7 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. He is sinking 47.8% of his shots from the field and 40.7% from beyond the arc, with 2.9 triples per game.
• The Heat are getting 18.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game from Bam Adebayo this season.
• Andrew Wiggins is putting up 15.8 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. He is draining 46.8% of his shots from the floor and 38.8% from beyond the arc, with 1.8 treys per game.

Heat Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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