Reds vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 25

Elly De La Cruz and the Cincinnati Reds face Bryan Reynolds and the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park on Thursday. First pitch is at 12:40 p.m. ET. The Reds are listed as -176 moneyline favorites for this matchup with the Pirates (+147). Cincinnati is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The contest's total is listed at 8 runs.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Reds-Pirates game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Pirates vs. Reds Highlights | MLB on FOX

Enjoy the best moments between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds.

Reds vs. Pirates Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, September 25, 2025 at 12:40 p.m. ET
• Where: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, FDSOH, and SportsNet PT

Reds vs. Pirates Prediction

• Score Prediction: Reds 5, Pirates 4
• Total Prediction: Under 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Reds 55%, Pirates 45%

Reds vs. Pirates Betting Insights

• This season, the Reds have been favored 71 times and won 37, or 52.1%, of those games.
• This season Cincinnati has won six of its 11 games, or 54.5%, when favored by at least -176 on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Reds, based on the moneyline, is 63.8%.
• The Pirates have come away with 46 wins in the 110 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• This season, Pittsburgh has come away with a win 10 times in 33 chances when named as an underdog of at least +147 or longer on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Pirates have a 40.5% chance of pulling out a win.

Reds Recent Betting Performance

• The Reds played as the moneyline favorite for eight of their last 10 games, and finished 4-4 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups, the Reds and their opponents combined to hit the over three times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Reds' ATS record is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Reds Recent Stats

Reds Player Insights

• De La Cruz has racked up a team-best batting average of .266, and leads the Reds in home runs (21) and runs batted in (85).
• De La Cruz is 67th in home runs and 32nd in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• De La Cruz brings a hitting streak of five games into this game. During his last five outings he is batting .438 with a double, two home runs, four walks and three RBIs.
• TJ Friedl has 20 doubles, two triples, 13 home runs and 78 walks while batting .257.
• Friedl is 157th in home runs in the majors, and 171st in RBI.
• Friedl carries a two-game streak with at least one hit into this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .250 with a home run, two walks and two RBIs.
• Spencer Steer has launched a team-high 21 home runs.
• Austin Hays is batting .266 with 16 doubles, five triples, 15 home runs and 29 walks.

Reds Team Props

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

• The Pirates have played as underdogs in six of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Pirates and their opponents are 2-7-1 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Pirates are 6-4-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Pirates Recent Stats

Pirates Player Insights

• Reynolds paces the Pirates with 73 runs batted in while accumulating a team-best batting average of .243.
• In all of MLB, Reynolds is 123rd in homers and 73rd in RBI.
• Andrew McCutchen is batting .240 with 22 doubles, 13 home runs and 66 walks.
• McCutchen is 157th in homers and 133rd in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
• Oneil Cruz has 20 home runs, tops in the clubhouse.
• Spencer Horwitz has 25 doubles, nine home runs and 41 walks while batting .262.

Pirates Team Props

Pirates vs. Reds Highlights | MLB on FOX

Enjoy the best moments between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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