Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 10

Walker Buehler is set to start for the Boston Red Sox on Thursday against Chandler Simpson and the Tampa Bay Rays. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The Rays are listed as -100 moneyline underdogs in this matchup with the favorite Red Sox (-119). Tampa Bay is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +149 odds). The over/under is 9 runs for this contest (with -120 odds to go over and +100 odds on the under).

Check out everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Rays game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Red Sox vs. Rays Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, July 10, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, NESN, and FDSSUN

Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Sox 6, Rays 5
• Total Prediction: Over 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 52%, Rays 48%

Red Sox vs. Rays Betting Insights

• This season, the Red Sox have been favored 58 times and won 32, or 55.2%, of those games.
• This season Boston has won 28 of its 48 games, or 58.3%, when favored by at least -119 on the moneyline.
• The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 54.3% chance of a victory for the Red Sox.
• The Rays have come away with 21 wins in the 43 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• This year, Tampa Bay has won 17 of 32 games when listed as at least -100 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Rays have a 50% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox were favored on the moneyline for eight of their last 10 games, and they finished 7-1 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 outings -- all had a set run total -- the Red Sox and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total nine times.
• The Red Sox's record against the spread is 8-2-0 over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran is hitting .262 with 24 doubles, 10 triples, eight home runs and 27 walks.
• In all of Major League Baseball, Duran ranks 145th in home runs and 45th in RBI.
• Duran brings a hitting streak of 10 games into this matchup. During his last 10 games he is batting .351 with four doubles, two triples, three home runs, three walks and 12 RBIs.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has a club-best .264 batting average.
• Rafaela is 74th in homers and 85th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Rafaela carries a six-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. In his last 10 outings he is batting .359 with eight doubles, four home runs, two walks and 11 RBIs.
• Wilyer Abreu leads the Red Sox with 18 home runs.
• Abreu will look to build on his two-game hitting in this game. During his last five outings he is hitting .300 with a double, two home runs, two walks and seven RBIs.
• Trevor Story has capitalized on opportunities as he leads his team with 57 RBI.
• Story has recorded at least one hit in two games in a row. In his last five games he is batting .238 with a double, two home runs and six RBIs.

Red Sox Team Props

Rays Recent Betting Performance

• In six games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by oddsmakers, the Rays had a record of 2-4.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Rays and their opponents have combined to hit the over five times.
• Over their last 10 games, the Rays are 2-8-0 against the spread.

Rays Recent Stats

Rays Player Insights

• Junior Caminero paces the Rays in home runs (22) and runs batted in (58).
• Among all hitters in MLB, Caminero's home run total is ninth and his RBI tally ranks 16th.
• Yandy Diaz is batting .287 with 18 doubles, a triple, 14 home runs and 28 walks.
• Diaz ranks 51st in homers and 31st in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Brandon Lowe is batting .272 with 11 doubles, 19 home runs and 24 walks.
• Jonathan Aranda leads the Rays with a team-high batting average of .327.

Rays Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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