Red Sox vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 31

Bryan Reynolds and the Pittsburgh Pirates hit the field on Sunday at Fenway Park against Lucas Giolito, who is starting for the Boston Red Sox. First pitch will be at 1:35 p.m. ET for the final game of a three-game series. The Red Sox are favored in this one, at -174, while the underdog Pirates have +145 odds to win. Boston is favored on the run line (-1.5). The total is 8.5 runs for this game.

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Pirates game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Pirates vs. Red Sox Highlights | MLB on FOX

Check out the best moments between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Boston Red Sox.

Red Sox vs. Pirates Game Information & Odds

• When: Sunday, August 31, 2025 at 1:35 p.m. ET
• Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, NESN, and SportsNet PT

Red Sox vs. Pirates Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Sox 4, Pirates 3
• Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 58%, Pirates 42%

Red Sox vs. Pirates Betting Insights

• This season, the Red Sox have been favored 83 times and won 49, or 59%, of those games.
• Boston is 12-6 this season when entering a game favored by -174 or more on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 63.5% chance of a victory for the Red Sox.
• The Pirates have won in 40, or 42.1%, of the 95 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• Pittsburgh has a mark of 10-22 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +145 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 40.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox played as the moneyline favorite in seven of their last 10 games, and went 5-2 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups, the Red Sox and their opponents combined to go over the run total four times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Red Sox's record against the spread is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran is the Red Sox best hitter thus far this season, hitting at a team-leading .258 rate along with 13 homers and 73 RBI.
• In all of the majors, Duran is 140th in home runs and 42nd in RBI.
• Duran carries a three-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .263 with a home run, a walk and three RBIs.
• Trevor Story's 22 home runs, 84 runs batted in and .258 batting average are all team-highs.
• Story is 44th in home runs and 16th in RBI in the bigs.
• Ceddanne Rafaela is hitting .250 with 29 doubles, three triples, 15 home runs and 22 walks.
• Alex Bregman has 24 doubles, 16 home runs and 39 walks while batting .287.

Red Sox Team Props

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

• The Pirates have played as underdogs in seven of their past 10 games and won five of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Pirates and their opponents are 4-6-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Pirates have won nine of their last 10 games against the spread.

Pirates Recent Stats

Pirates Player Insights

• Reynolds has collected a team-leading 68 runs batted in.
• In all of MLB, Reynolds ranks 123rd in home runs and 55th in RBI.
• Oneil Cruz's 19 home runs are a team-high total.
• Cruz ranks 67th in home runs and 115th in RBI among all major league batters this year.
• Andrew McCutchen has 21 doubles, 12 home runs and 56 walks while batting .247.
• Tommy Pham has 15 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 39 walks while hitting .265.

Pirates Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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