Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - August 16

A pair of hot hitters, Jarren Duran and Kyle Stowers, will be on display when the Boston Red Sox play the Miami Marlins on Saturday at 4:10 p.m. ET, at Fenway Park. Bookmakers list the Red Sox as -196 moneyline favorites, while giving the underdog Marlins +161 moneyline odds. Boston (-1.5) is favored on the run line. A 9-run over/under is listed for the contest.

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Red Sox-Marlins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Red Sox vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, August 16, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
• How to watch on TV: NESN and FDSFL

Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Red Sox 5, Marlins 4
• Total Prediction: Over 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Red Sox 57%, Marlins 43%

Red Sox vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• The Red Sox have won 43, or 59.7%, of the 72 games they've played as favorites this season.
• Boston has entered 12 games this season favored by -196 or more and is 9-3 in those contests.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 66.2% chance of a victory for the Red Sox.
• The Marlins have been underdogs in 103 games this season and have come away with the win 49 times (47.6%) in those contests.
• Miami has a mark of 9-15 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +161 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 38.3% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• The Red Sox were favored on the moneyline in five of their last 10 games, and they finished 3-2 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 matchups, the Red Sox and their opponents combined to go over the run total eight times (all 10 games had set totals).
• The Red Sox's record against the spread is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Duran is the Red Sox best hitter thus far this season, hitting at a team-leading .261 rate along with 12 homers and 65 RBI.
• Duran ranks 127th in homers and 45th in RBI among all batters in baseball.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has 24 doubles, three triples, 14 home runs and 20 walks while batting .257.
• Rafaela ranks 101st in home runs in the majors, and 95th in RBI.
• Trevor Story leads the Red Sox with 76 runs batted in.
• Story will look to build on his three-game hitting in this game. During his last five outings he is hitting .286 with a double and three RBIs.
• Alex Bregman is batting .299 with 23 doubles, 16 home runs and 32 walks.

Red Sox Team Props

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• The Marlins have played as underdogs in six of their past 10 games and have gone 1-5 in those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Marlins and their opponents have combined to hit the over five times.
• The Marlins have five wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Stowers leads the Marlins with 25 home runs and runs batted in, driving in 73.
• Stowers is 15th in homers and 20th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Stowers has collected a hit in three straight games. During his last five outings he is batting .333 with three doubles, four walks and two RBIs.
• Xavier Edwards is batting .304 to lead the lineup.
• Edwards ranks 363rd in homers and 202nd in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Otto Lopez is batting .241 with 16 doubles, 11 home runs and 38 walks.
• Agustin Ramirez is hitting .234 with 25 doubles, a triple, 17 home runs and 26 walks.

Marlins Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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