Phillies vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Picks - May 7

Kyle Schwarber and the Philadelphia Phillies will look to outdo Chandler Simpson and the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field on Wednesday at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Phillies are the favorite in this one, at -166, while the underdog Rays have +141 odds to win. Philadelphia is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The over/under is 8.5 runs for this game.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Phillies-Rays game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Nick Castellanos crushes a three-run home run, extending the Phillies' lead over Rays

Nick Castellanos crushed a three-run home run, extending the Philadelphia Phillies' lead over Tampa Bay Rays.

Phillies vs. Rays Game Information & Odds

• When: Wednesday, May 7, 2025 at 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where: George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida
• How to watch on TV: FDSSUN and NBCS-PH

Phillies vs. Rays Prediction

• Score Prediction: Rays 5, Phillies 4
• Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Phillies 51%, Rays 49%

Phillies vs. Rays Betting Insights

• The Phillies have been favorites in 27 games this season and won 16 (59.3%) of those contests.
• This season Philadelphia has won nine of its 12 games, or 75%, when favored by at least -166 on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 62.4% chance to win.
• The Rays have been underdogs in 15 games this season and have come away with the win seven times (46.7%) in those contests.
• This season, Tampa Bay has come away with a win three times in seven chances when named as an underdog of at least +141 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Rays have an implied victory probability of 41.5% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies were the moneyline favorite in eight of their last 10 games, and they finished 6-2 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Phillies and their opponents combined to go over the run total five times.
• The Phillies' ATS record is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Schwarber paces the Phillies with 12 home runs and 28 runs batted in.
• Among all MLB hitters, Schwarber ranks 65th in batting average, seventh in on-base percentage, and fifth in slugging.
• Schwarber has collected a hit in two straight games. In his last five games he is batting .333 with a double, three home runs, four walks and five RBIs.
• Bryce Harper is hitting .241 with six doubles, six home runs and 26 walks.
• Harper ranks 46th in home runs and 71st in RBI in the major leagues.
• Harper has two games in a row with at least one hit. In his last five games he is batting .273 with a home run, two walks and an RBI.
• Nick Castellanos is batting .288 with 10 doubles, four home runs and nine walks.
• Castellanos has at least one base hit in three straight games. In his last five games he is batting .381 with two doubles, a home run and five RBIs.
• Trea Turner has a club-best .301 batting average.
• Turner has recorded at least one hit in five straight games. In his last five games he is hitting .391 with a double and a walk.

Phillies Team Props

Rays Recent Betting Performance

• The Rays have played as underdogs in six of their past 10 games and won four of those contests.
• The Rays and their opponents have combined to hit the over three times in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Rays are 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Rays Recent Stats

Rays Player Insights

• Yandy Diaz has driven in the most runs for the Rays with 17 runs batted in.
• Among all hitters in the majors, Diaz's home run total ranks 61st and his RBI tally ranks 71st.
• Jonathan Aranda has 17 RBI while hitting .317. Each is tops on the club.
• Aranda is currently 61st in home runs and 71st in RBI in the big leagues.
• Junior Caminero leads the Rays with six long balls.
• Kameron Misner is hitting .271 with seven doubles, a triple, three home runs and six walks.

Rays Team Props

Nick Castellanos crushes a three-run home run, extending the Phillies' lead over Rays

Nick Castellanos crushed a three-run home run, extending the Philadelphia Phillies' lead over Tampa Bay Rays.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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