Padres vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 30

Pete Alonso and the New York Mets will hit the field against the San Diego Padres and starter Yu Darvish on Wednesday. First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. ET at PETCO Park. The Padres are -120 moneyline favorites in this matchup against the Mets (-100). New York is the favorite on the run line (-1.5 with +164 odds). The total for the contest has been set at 8.5 runs.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Padres-Mets game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Padres vs. Mets Game Information & Odds

• When: Wednesday, July 30, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, SDPA, and SNY

Padres vs. Mets Prediction

• Score Prediction: Padres 6, Mets 5
• Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Padres 52%, Mets 48%

Padres vs. Mets Betting Insights

• This season, the Padres have been favored 55 times and won 32, or 58.2%, of those games.
• San Diego has a record of 29-20 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -120 on the moneyline.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 54.5% chance of a victory for the Padres.
• The Mets have been victorious in 13, or 40.6%, of the 32 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• This year, New York has won eight of 21 games when listed as at least -100 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Mets have an implied victory probability of 50% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres were favored on the moneyline for four of their last 10 games, and they went 2-2 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 outings, the Padres and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total four times (all 10 games had set totals).
• The Padres have a 6-4-0 record against the spread over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Manny Machado leads the Padres in home runs (20), runs batted in (69) and has accumulated a team-best batting average of .301.
• Of all hitters in the majors, Machado's home run total ranks him 22nd, and his RBI tally ranks him 15th.
• Machado has collected a hit in seven games in a row. During his last 10 outings he is hitting .436 with five doubles, two home runs, three walks and nine RBIs.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting .269 with 18 doubles, two triples, 17 home runs and 59 walks.
• Tatis is 50th in homers and 96th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Tatis heads into this game looking for his fourth game in a row with a hit. In his last five games he is batting .316 with four doubles, four walks and an RBI.
• Luis Arraez has 20 doubles, four triples, six home runs and 21 walks while batting .293.
• Arraez is on a 12-game hitting streak entering this contest. During his last 10 games he is hitting .366 with three doubles, a home run, two walks and five RBIs.
• Xander Bogaerts is hitting .267 with 24 doubles, seven home runs and 43 walks.

Padres Team Props

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets have played as underdogs in three of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Mets and their opponents have combined to hit the over three times.
• The Mets have a record of 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Juan Soto has launched a team-best 25 home runs.
• Soto's home run total places him 10th in the big leagues, and he is 29th in RBI.
• Alonso has 81 RBI while hitting .261. Each pace his team.
• Alonso is 17th in homers and sixth in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
• Francisco Lindor has 20 doubles, 20 home runs and 34 walks while hitting .248.
• Brandon Nimmo is batting .258 with 20 doubles, 19 home runs and 33 walks.

Mets Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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