Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 26

Jackson Merrill and the San Diego Padres will aim to outdo Ketel Marte and the Arizona Diamondbacks at PETCO Park on Friday at 9:40 p.m. ET. Oddsmakers list the Padres as -142 moneyline favorites, while giving the underdog Diamondbacks +120 moneyline odds to win. San Diego (-1.5) is favored on the run line. The total is 8 runs for the contest.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Padres-Diamondbacks game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Padres vs. Diamondbacks Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, September 26, 2025 at 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
• How to watch on TV: SDPA and ARID

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

• Score Prediction: Padres 5, Diamondbacks 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Padres 54%, Diamondbacks 46%

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Betting Insights

• This season, the Padres have been favored 89 times and won 52, or 58.4%, of those games.
• San Diego has entered 59 games this season favored by -142 or more and is 34-25 in those contests.
• The Padres have a 58.7% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Diamondbacks have won in 34, or 49.3%, of the 69 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• Arizona has a mark of 17-15 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +120 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Diamondbacks have a 45.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres went 3-2 across the five games they were favored on the moneyline in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups (all 10 of them had set totals), the Padres and their opponents combined to go over the run total five times.
• The Padres' ATS record is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting .267 with 27 doubles, two triples, 23 home runs and 88 walks.
• In all of the majors, Tatis is 58th in homers and 97th in RBI.
• Tatis carries a five-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .381 with a home run, two walks and an RBI.
• Manny Machado has shown his power as he paces his team with 26 home runs and 93 RBI.
• Machado ranks 40th in homers and 22nd in RBI among all hitters in baseball.
• Luis Arraez paces the Padres with a team-best batting average of .288.
• Arraez is on a 13-game hitting streak entering this contest. During his last 10 outings he is hitting .333 with a home run, four walks and six RBIs.
• Ramon Laureano is batting .281 with 26 doubles, two triples, 24 home runs and 35 walks.

Padres Team Props

Diamondbacks Recent Betting Performance

• The Diamondbacks have played as underdogs in five of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Diamondbacks and their opponents are 5-3-2 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Diamondbacks have won six of their last 10 games against the spread.

Diamondbacks Recent Stats

Diamondbacks Player Insights

• The Diamondbacks are led in runs batted in by Geraldo Perdomo with a mark of 98, he also leads the team in hitting, posting an average of .289.
• Perdomo's home run total puts him 90th in the majors, and he ranks 16th in RBI.
• Corbin Carroll's 31 home runs pace his team.
• Carroll is 19th in homers and 40th in RBI among all MLB batters this year.
• Marte is batting .283 with 28 doubles, 26 home runs and 63 walks.
• Gabriel Moreno has 12 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 27 walks while batting .284.

Diamondbacks Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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