Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 8

Francisco Lindor and the New York Mets square off against the Philadelphia Phillies and starter Aaron Nola on Monday at 6:45 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. The Mets are the favorite in this one, at -131, while the underdog Phillies have +110 odds to play spoiler. New York is the favorite on the run line (-1.5). The over/under is 8.5 runs for this matchup (with -120 odds to hit the over and -101 odds to go under).

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Mets-Phillies game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Mets vs. Phillies Game Information & Odds

• When: Monday, September 8, 2025 at 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to watch on TV: MLB Network, NBCS-PH, and SNY

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 6, Mets 5
• Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mets 54%, Phillies 46%

Mets vs. Phillies Betting Insights

• This season, the Mets have won 58 out of the 101 games, or 57.4%, in which they've been favored.
• This season New York has won 43 of its 78 games, or 55.1%, when favored by at least -131 on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 56.7%.
• The Phillies have been chosen as underdogs in 27 games this year and have walked away with the win 12 times (44.4%) in those games.
• Philadelphia has a mark of 7-8 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +110 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Phillies have an implied victory probability of 47.6% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets went 4-5 across the nine games they were moneyline favorites in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups, the Mets and their opponents combined to hit the over five times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Mets' ATS record is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Juan Soto's 38 homers in 2025 are the most on the Mets. He's also knocked in 93 runs while hitting .262.
• Of all hitters in the majors, Soto ranks seventh in home runs and 12th in RBI.
• Soto carries a nine-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last 10 games he is batting .417 with a double, a triple, six home runs, 10 walks and 14 RBIs.
• Francisco Lindor has a club-best .268 batting average.
• Lindor ranks 33rd in homers and 38th in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
• Pete Alonso leads the Mets with 113 runs batted in.
• Brandon Nimmo is hitting .265 with 27 doubles, 22 home runs and 48 walks.

Mets Team Props

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies have been underdogs twice in the last 10 games and won both contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Phillies and their opponents have failed to hit the over seven times.
• Over their last 10 games, the Phillies are 5-5-0 against the spread.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Kyle Schwarber paces the Phillies in home runs (49) and runs batted in (120).
• Among all hitters in the majors, Schwarber's home run total is second and his RBI tally ranks first.
• Bryce Harper is hitting .264 with 30 doubles, 24 home runs and 58 walks.
• Harper is 41st among all hitters in MLB in homers, and 70th in RBI.
• Bryson Stott is batting .249 with 20 doubles, three triples, 10 home runs and 48 walks.
• Nick Castellanos is batting .252 with 25 doubles, two triples, 16 home runs and 29 walks.

Phillies Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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