Mets vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 16

Clay Holmes and the New York Mets will take the field against the San Diego Padres and projected starter Michael King on Tuesday at Citi Field. The favored Mets have -123 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Padres, who are listed at +103. San Diego is favored on the run line (-1.5 with +166 odds). The over/under is 8 runs for this game.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Mets-Padres game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Mets vs. Padres Game Information & Odds

• When: Tuesday, September 16, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
• How to watch on TV: TBS, SNY, and SDPA

Mets vs. Padres Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mets 5, Padres 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mets 52%, Padres 48%

Mets vs. Padres Betting Insights

• The Mets have entered the game as favorites 105 times this season and won 59, or 56.2%, of those games.
• New York has entered 91 games this season favored by -123 or more and is 50-41 in those contests.
• The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 55.2%.
• The Padres have won in 32, or 50%, of the 64 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• This year, San Diego has won 25 of 54 games when listed as at least +103 or worse on the moneyline.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Padres have a 49.3% chance of walking away with the win.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets were the moneyline favorite for six of their last 10 games, and they finished 2-4 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Mets and their opponents combined to hit the over four times.
• The Mets' ATS record is 2-8-0 over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Juan Soto's 40 home runs in 2025 are the most on the Mets. He's also knocked in 98 runs while hitting .262.
• Soto's home runs place him seventh in MLB, and he is 10th in RBI.
• Francisco Lindor is batting .263 with 33 doubles, 26 home runs and 56 walks.
• Among all MLB batters, Lindor is 38th in homers and 48th in RBI.
• Lindor enters this game looking for his fifth game in a row with a hit. During his last five outings he is hitting .211 with a double and two walks.
• Pete Alonso has accumulated a team-best batting average of .266 while pacing the Mets in runs batted in (117).
• Alonso is on a two-game hitting streak entering this contest. In his last five games he is hitting .200 with a home run, a walk and four RBIs.
• Brandon Nimmo has 27 doubles, 23 home runs and 48 walks while hitting .261.
• Nimmo is riding a two-game hitting streak into this one. During his last five outings he is hitting .200 with a home run and two RBIs.

Mets Team Props

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres are not favored for the first time in a while, as they have not been underdogs in their last 10 games.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Padres and their opponents are 3-7-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Padres have five wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Fernando Tatis Jr. is batting .264 with 27 doubles, two triples, 22 home runs and 86 walks.
• Tatis' home run total places him 57th in the big leagues, and he is 87th in RBI.
• Manny Machado been a consistent power bat this season, as he leads his team with 25 home runs and 88 RBI.
• Machado ranks 41st in homers and 22nd in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
• Luis Arraez paces the Padres' lineup with a .286 batting average.
• Ramon Laureano is batting .286 with 24 doubles, two triples, 23 home runs and 33 walks.

Padres Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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