Mets vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 28

Francisco Lindor and the New York Mets will look to beat Edward Cabrera, the Miami Marlins' starter, on Sunday at 3:10 p.m. ET. Bookmakers list the Mets as -141 favorites on the moneyline, while giving the underdog Marlins +118 moneyline odds. New York is favored on the run line (-1.5). The game's total is set at 8 runs.

Check out everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Mets-Marlins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Mets vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Sunday, September 28, 2025 at 3:10 p.m. ET
• Where: loanDepot park in Miami, Florida
• How to watch on TV: FDSFL and SNY

Mets vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Marlins 5, Mets 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mets 50%, Marlins 50%

Mets vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• The Mets have been favorites in 114 games this season and won 64 (56.1%) of those contests.
• New York has a record of 39-31 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -141 on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 58.5% chance to win.
• The Marlins have come away with 63 wins in the 131 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• Miami has a win-loss record of 43-47 when favored by +118 or worse by bookmakers this year.
• The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 45.9% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

• The Mets were favored on the moneyline for eight of their last 10 games, and they finished 4-4 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings, the Mets and their opponents combined to go over the run total five times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
• The Mets' ATS record is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Mets Player Insights

• Juan Soto paces the Mets with 43 home runs.
• Of all hitters in MLB, Soto ranks seventh in homers and 10th in RBI.
• Francisco Lindor is hitting .267 with 34 doubles, 31 home runs and 63 walks.
• Lindor is 19th in home runs and 35th in RBI among all MLB hitters this season.
• Lindor heads into this game looking for his fourth game in a row with a hit. During his last five outings he is batting .250 with three home runs, three walks and six RBIs.
• Pete Alonso leads the Mets with 126 runs batted in while accumulating a team-high batting average of .273.
• Alonso has at least one base hit in three games in a row. During his last five outings he is batting .238 with three doubles, a home run, a walk and four RBIs.
• Brandon Nimmo is hitting .262 with 27 doubles, 25 home runs and 50 walks.

Mets Team Props

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• In eight games over the last 10 matchups when set as underdogs by bookmakers, the Marlins had a record of 5-3.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Marlins and their opponents are 5-5-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
• Over their last 10 games, the Marlins are 8-2-0 against the spread.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Otto Lopez has a team-leading 77 runs batted in.
• Lopez's home run total puts him 141st in MLB, and he ranks 61st in RBI.
• Xavier Edwards is batting .282 to lead the lineup.
• Edwards ranks 375th in home runs and 218th in RBI among all major league batters this year.
• Agustin Ramirez has 33 doubles, a triple, 21 home runs and 36 walks while batting .231.
• Eric Wagaman has 27 doubles, three triples, nine home runs and 32 walks while batting .250.

Marlins Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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