Astros vs. Rangers Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 5

Merrill Kelly will take the mound for the Texas Rangers in the first of a three-game series against the Houston Astros and Yordan Alvarez on Friday at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Astros are listed as -116 moneyline favorites in this matchup against the Rangers (-102). Houston (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The matchup's total is set at 6.5 runs.

Here's everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Astros-Rangers game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Astros vs. Rangers Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, September 5, 2025 at 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where: Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas
• How to watch on TV: CW33 and SCHN

Astros vs. Rangers Prediction

• Score Prediction: Rangers 5, Astros 4
• Total Prediction: Over 6.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Astros 55%, Rangers 45%

Astros vs. Rangers Betting Insights

• This season, the Astros have won 50 out of the 94 games, or 53.2%, in which they've been favored.
• Houston has a record of 43-37, a 53.8% win rate, when favored by -116 or more by bookmakers this season.
• The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 53.7% chance of a victory for the Astros.
• The Rangers have won in 25, or 36.2%, of the 69 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• This season, Texas has come away with a win 20 times in 57 chances when named as an underdog of at least -102 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Rangers have an implied victory probability of 50.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Astros Recent Betting Performance

• The Astros have a 4-3 record across the seven games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Astros and their opponents combined to hit the over three times.
• The Astros' ATS record is 4-6-0 over their past 10 games.

Astros Recent Stats

Astros Player Insights

• Jose Altuve has a team-best 24 home runs.
• In all of the majors, Altuve is 40th in home runs and 63rd in RBI.
• Jeremy Pena is hitting .305 to pace his team.
• Pena ranks 116th in home runs in baseball, and 128th in RBI.
• Pena carries a two-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. During his last five outings he is batting .263 with two doubles, a home run, four walks and three RBIs.
• Yainer Diaz is batting .251 with 19 doubles, a triple, 18 home runs and 20 walks.
• Christian Walker's 74 runs batted in pace his team.

Astros Team Props

Rangers Recent Betting Performance

• The Rangers have played as underdogs in four of their past 10 games and have gone 2-2 in those contests.
• When it comes to hitting the over, the Rangers and their opponents are 5-5-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
• The Rangers have a record of 7-3-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Rangers Recent Stats

Rangers Player Insights

• Wyatt Langford has swatted a team-leading 21 long balls.
• Langford's home run total places him 57th in MLB, and he ranks 101st in RBI.
• Josh Smith is hitting .256 with 22 doubles, two triples, nine home runs and 47 walks.
• Smith is 205th among all hitters in the majors in home runs, and 232nd in RBI.
• Adolis Garcia has racked up a team-best 73 runs batted in.
• Josh Jung is hitting .256 with 16 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs and 23 walks.

Rangers Team Props

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Check out the best moments between the Los Angeles Angels and the Houston Astros.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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