Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 27, 2025

Updated Sep. 27, 2025 3:04 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (3-1) are favored by 3.5 points when they visit the Missouri State Bears (2-2) in CUSA action on Saturday, September 27, 2025 at Robert W. Plaster Stadium. The total for this matchup has been set at 60.5 points.

The Hilltoppers' most recent game was against the Nevada Wolf Pack, and they won by a score of 31-16. Facing the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks in their last game, the Bears won 42-10.

Keep up with college football all season on FOX Sports.

Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET
Location: Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, Missouri
TV: ESPN+
Live Box Score on FOX Sports

Western Kentucky vs Missouri State Betting Information updated as of September 27, 2025, 1:45 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Western Kentucky	-3.5 (-110)	-178	+148	60.5	-110	-113

Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State Prediction

Pick ATS: Missouri State (+3.5)
Pick OU: Under (60.5)
Prediction: Missouri State 33, Western Kentucky 24

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. the Missouri State Bears game on FOX Sports!

Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Hilltoppers 32, Bears 28.
The Hilltoppers have a 64.0% chance to collect the win in this game per the moneyline's implied probability. The Bears have a 40.3% implied probability.
Western Kentucky has won three games against the spread this season, while failing to cover once.
Missouri State has compiled a 3-1-0 ATS record so far this year.

Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State: 2025 Stats Comparison

	Western Kentucky	Missouri State
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	37 (24)	21.5 (102)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	22.8 (70)	32.8 (124)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	6 (96)	8 (123)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	6 (27)	7 (14)

Western Kentucky 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Maverick McIvor	QB	1,157 YDS (66.7%) / 10 TD / 2 INT -15 RUSH YDS / 1 RUSH TD / -3.8 RUSH YPG
Matthew Henry	WR	12 REC / 205 YDS / 3 TD / 51.3 YPG
KD Hutchinson	WR	14 REC / 202 YDS / 3 TD / 50.5 YPG
La'Vell Wright	RB	86 YDS / 3 TD / 21.5 YPG / 4.8 YPC
Jaylen Lewis	DB	7 TKL / 0 TFL / 2 INT / 2 PD
Al-Ma'hi Ali	DB	8 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Anthony Brackenridge	LB	8 TKL / 2 TFL
Dave Herard	DB	10 TKL / 0 TFL

Missouri State 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Jacob Clark	QB	1,052 YDS (66.7%) / 8 TD / 6 INT 7 RUSH YDS / 2 RUSH TD / 1.8 RUSH YPG
Dash Luke	WR	19 REC / 239 YDS / 2 TD / 59.8 YPG
Shomari Lawrence	RB	208 YDS / 1 TD / 52 YPG / 4.2 YPC 8 REC / 44 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 14.7 REC YPG
Ramone Green Jr.	RB	45 YDS / 0 TD / 11.3 YPG / 3.8 YPC 11 REC / 176 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 44 REC YPG
Mitchell Toney	DL	11 TKL / 3 TFL / 2 SACK
Kanye Young	LB	9 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Jalen Brooks	LB	9 TKL / 1 TFL
Christian Ford	DB	8 TKL / 0 TFL