North Texas vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds, Picks - December 27, 2025

Updated Dec. 27, 2025 3:04 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The San Diego State Aztecs play the North Texas Mean Green in the New Mexico Bowl as touchdown underdogs on December 27, 2025 at 5:45 p.m. ET on ESPN. The over/under is set at 52.5 points for the game.

The Mean Green's last contest was against the Tulane Green Wave, and they lost by a score of 34-21. Against the New Mexico Lobos in their most recent game, the Aztecs lost 23-17.

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North Texas vs. San Diego State Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, December 27, 2025 at 5:45 p.m. ET
Location: University Stadium (NM) in Albuquerque, New Mexico
TV: ESPN
Streaming: FOX One + ESPN Bundle

North Texas vs San Diego State Betting Information updated as of December 27, 2025, 2:45 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
North Texas	-7 (-111)	-276	+223	52.5	-110	-109

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North Texas vs. San Diego State Prediction

Pick ATS: North Texas (-7)
Pick OU: Over (52.5)
Prediction: North Texas 31, San Diego State 23

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the North Texas Mean Green vs. the San Diego State Aztecs game on FOX Sports!

North Texas vs. San Diego State Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Mean Green 30, Aztecs 23.
The Mean Green have a 73.4% chance to claim victory in this contest based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Aztecs have a 31.0% implied probability.
North Texas has compiled a 10-3-0 record against the spread this season.
San Diego State is 9-3-0 ATS this season.

North Texas vs. San Diego State: 2025 Stats Comparison

	North Texas	San Diego State
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	44.8 (1)	24.7 (92)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	24.9 (76)	12.6 (4)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	16 (69)	12 (18)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	25 (7)	16 (63)

North Texas 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Drew Mestemaker	QB	4,119 YDS (69.9%) / 31 TD / 7 INT 71 RUSH YDS / 5 RUSH TD / 5.9 RUSH YPG
Caleb Hawkins	RB	1,226 YDS / 23 TD / 102.2 YPG / 6.1 YPC 29 REC / 345 REC YDS / 3 REC TD / 28.8 REC YPG
Wyatt Young	WR	63 REC / 1,209 YDS / 10 TD / 93 YPG
Cameron Dorner	WR	49 REC / 820 YDS / 6 TD / 63.1 YPG
Ethan Wesloski	LB	66 TKL / 5 TFL / 1.5 SACK / 1 INT
Trey Fields	LB	62 TKL / 5 TFL / 1 SACK / 1 INT
Will Jones II	DB	46 TKL / 3 TFL / 2 INT / 2 PD
Ethan Day	DL	32 TKL / 5 TFL / 4.5 SACK

San Diego State 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Lucky Sutton	RB	1,232 YDS / 10 TD / 102.7 YPG / 5.2 YPC
Jayden Denegal	QB	1,810 YDS (58.6%) / 9 TD / 8 INT 103 RUSH YDS / 4 RUSH TD / 8.6 RUSH YPG
Jordan Napier	WR	48 REC / 632 YDS / 2 TD / 63.2 YPG
Christian Washington	RB	483 YDS / 3 TD / 40.3 YPG / 5.6 YPC 3 REC / 18 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 4.5 REC YPG
Owen Chambliss	LB	81 TKL / 8 TFL / 4 SACK / 1 INT
Trey White	DL	38 TKL / 8 TFL / 7 SACK
Chris Johnson	DB	42 TKL / 3 TFL / 1 SACK / 4 INT
Ryan Henderson	DL	21 TKL / 8 TFL / 7 SACK