Arkansas State vs. Missouri State Prediction, Odds, Picks - December 18, 2025

Updated Dec. 18, 2025 9:04 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The XBox Bowl features a battle between the Arkansas State Red Wolves (who are just 1.5-point favorites) and the Missouri State Bears on December 18, 2025 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The game has an over/under of 55.5 points.

The Red Wolves won against the Appalachian State Mountaineers in their last game, 30-29. The Bears lost to the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, 42-30, in their last game.

Keep up with college football all season on FOX Sports.

Arkansas State vs. Missouri State Game Information & Odds

When: Thursday, December 18, 2025 at 9 p.m. ET
Location: Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas
TV: ESPN2
Streaming: FOX One + ESPN Bundle

Arkansas State vs Missouri State Betting Information updated as of December 18, 2025, 8:45 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Arkansas State	-1.5 (-109)	-124	+104	55.5	-113	-106

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Arkansas State vs. Missouri State Prediction

Pick ATS: Missouri State (+1.5)
Pick OU: Under (55.5)
Prediction: Missouri State 27, Arkansas State 26

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. the Missouri State Bears game on FOX Sports!

Arkansas State vs. Missouri State Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Red Wolves 28, Bears 27.
The Red Wolves have a 55.4% chance to collect the win in this game based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Bears hold a 49.0% implied probability.
Arkansas State has compiled a 7-5-0 ATS record so far this year.
Missouri State has covered seven times in 12 games with a spread this season.

Arkansas State vs. Missouri State: 2025 Stats Comparison

	Arkansas State	Missouri State
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	24.4 (92)	25.4 (85)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	27.3 (80)	28.3 (89)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	23 (126)	16 (74)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	14 (81)	16 (57)

Arkansas State 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Jaylen Raynor	QB	3,073 YDS (67.2%) / 16 TD / 11 INT 434 RUSH YDS / 7 RUSH TD / 36.2 RUSH YPG
Corey Rucker	WR	69 REC / 866 YDS / 3 TD / 72.2 YPG
Kenyon Clay	RB	470 YDS / 3 TD / 39.2 YPG / 3.7 YPC 36 REC / 192 REC YDS / 3 REC TD / 17.5 REC YPG
Chauncy Cobb	WR	69 REC / 767 YDS / 0 TD / 63.9 YPG
Eathan Hassler	DL	49 TKL / 8 TFL / 6.5 SACK
Demarcus Hendricks	DL	48 TKL / 8 TFL / 6.5 SACK
Aaron Alexander	LB	80 TKL / 1 TFL / 0.5 SACK / 1 INT
AG McGhee	DB	64 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD

Missouri State 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Jacob Clark	QB	2,895 YDS (65.1%) / 24 TD / 11 INT 8 RUSH YDS / 3 RUSH TD / 0.7 RUSH YPG
Shomari Lawrence	RB	964 YDS / 7 TD / 80.3 YPG / 5.3 YPC 17 REC / 101 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 10.1 REC YPG
Jmariyae Robinson	WR	40 REC / 536 YDS / 6 TD / 48.7 YPG
Ramone Green Jr.	RB	256 YDS / 1 TD / 21.3 YPG / 5.6 YPC 26 REC / 421 REC YDS / 2 REC TD / 38.3 REC YPG
Jalen Brooks	LB	49 TKL / 1 TFL / 0.5 SACK
Thomas Anderson	DB	40 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 SACK / 1 INT
DJ Wesolak	DL	28 TKL / 5 TFL / 4 SACK
Kanye Young	LB	38 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 SACK / 1 INT