North Carolina vs. Ole Miss Prediction, Odds, Picks - NCAA Tournament First Round

Updated Mar. 21, 2025 3:27 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (22-11) will be trying to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament when they meet the No. 11 North Carolina Tar Heels (23-13) on Friday. This 6-11 matchup tips off at 4:05 p.m. ET.

The Tar Heels face the Rebels in a game oddsmakers expect to be a close matchup. The Tar Heels are favored by just 1.5 points against the Rebels. The over/under for the matchup is 155.5.

Keep reading to get all the information before placing bets on the North Carolina-Ole Miss matchup.

North Carolina vs. Ole Miss Game Information & Odds

When: Friday, March 21, 2025 at 4:05 p.m. ET
Where: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
How to watch on TV: TNT
Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Tar Heels vs Rebels Betting Information
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline
Tar Heels	-1.5	-115	-105	155.5	-112	-108	-125	+105

North Carolina vs. Ole Miss Prediction

Pick ATS: Ole Miss (+1.5)
Pick OU: Under (155.5)
Prediction: North Carolina 77, Ole Miss 76

Learn more about the North Carolina Tar Heels vs. the Ole Miss Rebels game on FOX Sports!

North Carolina vs. Ole Miss Betting Insights

Betting Line Implied Predictions

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Tar Heels 78, Rebels 77.
The Tar Heels have a 55.6% chance to win this meeting based on the moneyline's implied probability.
The Rebels sit with a 48.8% implied probability to come out on top.

Key Spread Facts

North Carolina is 15-19-1 ATS this season.
Ole Miss has won 16 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 17 times.
North Carolina has been favored by 1.5 points or more 23 times this season, and covered the spread in 12 of those games.
Ole Miss has been an underdog by 1.5 points or more 14 times this season, and covered the spread in eight of those contests.

Key Total Facts

Tar Heels games have finished with more than 155.5 points 18 times so far this season.
Rebels games have gone over 155.5 points on 12 occasions this year.
The Tar Heels and Rebels average 158.4 points per game combined, which is 2.9 more than the over/under for this matchup.

Key Moneyline Facts

North Carolina has won 21 of 24 games when listed as the moneyline favorite this season (87.5%).
This season, Ole Miss has been the underdog 14 times and won five, or 35.7%, of those games.
When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -125 or shorter, North Carolina has gone 21-3 (87.5% win percentage).
This season, Ole Miss has won five of its 13 games, or 38.5%, when it is the underdog by at least +105 on the moneyline.

North Carolina vs. Ole Miss: 2024-25 Stats Comparison

	North Carolina	Ole Miss
Points Scored Per Game (Rank)	81.2 (26)	77.2 (88)
Points Allowed (Rank)	74.8 (263)	71.7 (173)
Rebounds (Rank)	7.8 (266)	7.3 (309)
3pt Made (Rank)	8.1 (135)	8.2 (119)
Assists (Rank)	14.6 (100)	14.2 (127)
Turnovers (Rank)	10.6 (130)	8.5 (4)

North Carolina 2024-25 Key Players

Tar Heels Leaders
Name	GP	PTS	REB	ASST	STL	BLK	3PM
RJ Davis	36	17.3	3.4	3.7	1	0.1	2.3
Ian Jackson	35	12.3	2.8	0.9	0.5	0.2	1.7
Seth Trimble	33	11.7	5	1.3	1.4	0.3	0.8
Elliot Cadeau	36	9.5	2.9	6.1	1	0.3	0.8
Ven-Allen Lubin	36	8.6	5.6	0.3	0.4	0.9	0

Ole Miss 2024-25 Key Players

Rebels Leaders
Name	GP	PTS	REB	ASST	STL	BLK	3PM
Sean Pedulla	33	14.9	3.5	3.6	1.8	0.2	2.4
Jaemyn Brakefield	33	10.8	4.4	1.8	0.8	0.3	0.7
Matthew Murrell	29	10.6	3.4	1.9	1.8	0.2	1.3
Jaylen Murray	33	10.6	2.2	3.5	1.5	0.2	1.7
Malik Dia	33	10.6	5.7	0.8	0.7	0.9	0.8