Big Bets Report: Mexico Loss To England Costs Bettor $1 Million

World Cup odds continue generating bets more akin to a Super Bowl. That includes wagers of the seven-figure variety.

But just because someone wagers a lot of money doesn’t mean that person has any sort of special insight. That proved true once again Sunday night, in a wild England vs. Mexico match that saw one Vegas high-roller lose a million dollars.

Read on for more on that major wager, a winner at the buzzer on Norway vs. Brazil, prediction-market pile-ons and a four-year-old parlay that’s finally close to resolution.

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Mexico Million

A minor surprising element in the 2026 World Cup odds market is that the biggest bets aren’t always landing with the usual suspects — the DraftKings, FanDuels, BetMGMs and Caesars of the world.

Rather, it’s often Station Sports that’s seeing the largest wagers, through its local hotel/casino/sportsbook properties located around Las Vegas. Though Station wouldn’t confirm it, social media speculation is that those bets are all coming from the same customer.

On Sunday afternoon, a few hours before the England vs. Mexico clash, that customer decided to go all in on the home side. The bettor spread $1 million across two wagers in the To Advance market:

It didn’t look good when Jude Bellingham scored two goals less than two minutes apart, giving England a 2-0 lead in the 38th minute. But Mexico rebounded with a goal before halftime, and an England red card early in the second half helped make this match a thriller throughout.

Ultimately, despite applying massive pressure in the second half, Mexico came up short 3-2. So those wagers became a seven-figure donation to the house. 

Ouch.

Buzzer Beater

Late in second-half injury time of the Norway vs. Brazil match, Norway was up 2-0, and it appeared that’s how it would end. But in the match’s waning moments, Brazil was awarded a penalty kick for a foul in the box.

Neymar converted the kick, the match ended with a 2-1 Norway victory, and Over bettors rejoiced. Perhaps none more so than a Caesars Sports customer who put $49,052.27 — yes, 27 cents, too — on Over 2.5 goals (-150).

The bettor won $32,701.51, for a total payout of $81,753,78.

Funds On France

France is the favorite to win the World Cup, and so far, bettors have been rewarded for backing Kylian Mbappé & Co. The French have allowed just two goals through five matches, winning by a cumulative 14-2 total.

In Tuesday’s Round of 32 match, a Hard Rock Bet customer put a mountainous $631,000 on France — a heavy favorite of -850 — to beat Sweden.

Unlike the aforementioned Mexico bettor, this high-roller didn’t have to sweat much at all. France blanked Sweden 3-0, with Mbappé’s two goals leading the way.

So the bettor pocketed $74,235 profit (total payout $705,235). Which might not seem worth it for such a major wager. But it’s hard to argue with 11.8% ROI.

Playing The Long Game

File this under Stranger Things: Way back on Dec. 26, 2022, a FanDuel Sportsbook customer put all of 83 cents on a very curious two-leg parlay. The markets:

• Anthony Edwards +550 to score the first basket in the Timberwolves’ game vs. the Heat.
• Colombia +45000 (450/1) to win the 2026 World Cup.

Add those up, and you’ve got massive odds of +293050, or almost 2931/1.

How people come up with such crazy combinations is anybody’s guess. Regardless, yes, Edwards scored the first basket of that game, more than three-and-a-half years ago, although Minnesota ultimately lost 113-110.

Fast-forward to July 6, and Colombia is prepping for a Round of 16 match as the favorite against Sweden. If Colombia wins Tuesday, it’ll stand three victories away from a championship.

And if somehow that happens, then the bettor’s couch-cushion change will turn into $2,433.15. Personally, I’m rooting for it. 

What a wager.

Making Predictions

Sportsbooks are certainly getting a big boost from action on World Cup odds. But the bulk of the biggest money flying around is doing so on prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Hardly a day goes by without a seven-figure trade, and the six-figure trades are too numerous to mention.

The latest example: On Sunday, a Polymarket customer put $1.858 million on Mexico to not win its match vs. England.

As noted above, the host Mexican squad was dealt a heartbreaking loss Sunday night. But it worked out just fine for this trader. With a price of 68% — which correlates to odds of -213 — the customer profited $847,608 (total payout $2,733,150).

Indeed, taking the No on Yes/No markets is proving popular. 

In Sunday’s Norway vs. Brazil match, a Kalshi customer went against the favored Brazilian side, with a trade of $300,000 on Brazil being eliminated.

That was the case in the 2-1 setback. At an underdog price of 30% (+233), the trader hauled in $700,000 profit (total payout $1 million).

Another Kalshi customer put $55,000 on Vinícius Júnior not to score.

When Brazil was awarded a penalty kick in the 14th minute, most people assumed Vini would take that kick — and convert it. Instead, Bruno Guimaraes was chosen, and his shot was saved by Norway goalkeeper Orjan Nyland.

Vini Jr. was ultimately held scoreless. At a price of 55% (-122), the trader won $45,000 (total payout $100,000).

But "Just say No" doesn’t always pay. A Polymarket customer learned an expensive lesson in the Norway vs. Ivory Coast match, making a $2.5 million trade on Norway not to win.

Erling Haaland’s 86th-minute goal gave Norway a 2-1 victory, and that trader waved goodbye to 2.5 mill.

On the flip side, Colombia drew a $71,000 Yes trade to win the World Cup, at Polymarket. At the time of the trade, Colombia’s price was just 2%, which correlates to odds of +4900.

If Colombia finds four more wins, then the trader pockets a huge haul of $3.7 million.

Parlay Partay

A FanDuel Sportsbook customer successfully picked half the Round of 16 field, on an eight-leg parlay likely placed before the tournament began.

Better still, as the ticket shows, the bettor utilized a bonus bet promotion. So it was basically a free ride.

Granted, most of those teams were fully expected to reach the final 16. That’s why the odds were a relatively modest +2290, just shy of 23/1.

Still, turning a free play into $1,145.02 is a pretty smooth move.

At Hard Rock Bet, a high-roller piled on a quartet of Tuesday-Wednesday Round of 32 matches. The bettor put $100,000 on a four-leg parlay of Norway, France, Mexico and England to win their matches.

All four got there, though the bettor got a huge sweat from England. Big underdog Congo led 1-0 from the seventh minute through the 74th minute.

But Harry Kane saved the day with goals in the 75th and 86th minutes, giving England a 2-1 victory.

The bettor knocked down $674,946.47 in profit (total payout $774,946.47).

Here’s Hoping You Had It

You don’t have to wager four, five or six figures to get yourself a nice win. For all us normies, just getting 10 bucks down at, say, 10/1 or 15/1 makes for a great day.

And 28/1 is even better still.

Fanatics Sportsbook had Jude Bellingham +2800 to score two or more goals vs. Mexico. As noted above, Bellingham got those two goals just 98 seconds apart, in England’s wild 3-2 victory.

If you’d put just 10 bucks on that, then your wallet would be $280 fatter today.

Or how about Sidny Cabral netting an anytime goal for Cape Verde, against mighty Argentina, the defending World Cup champion?

At FanDuel, Cabral was +2500 to do so at any point in the match, be it in regulation or overtime. Cabral sent a screamer into the net 12 minutes into overtime to tie the match at 2.

Ultimately, Cape Verde fell short Friday night, losing 3-2. But it was a phenomenal match, made even more so if you put a tenner on Cabral and won yourself $250.

Or if you got frisky and put down $100, to pocket $2,500.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There were countless more notable transactions on World Cup odds over the past week. That includes a big winner on the USA.

A Hard Rock Bet customer put $350,000 on USA -220 vs. Bosnia in the Round of 32. Despite playing down a man much of the second half, due to Folarin Balogun’s 64th-minute red card, the U.S. notched a 2-0 victory.

The bettor cleared $159,090 in profit (total payout $509,090).

Other notable wagers:

• $110,000 USA -550 to advance vs. Bosnia (SuperBook). The 2-0 U.S. victory netted $20,000 profit for the bettor (total payout $130,000).
• $100,000 Netherlands +131 vs. Morocco (Caesars Sports). That wager was on the three-way moneyline — 90 minutes plus injury time — for last Monday’s Round of 32 match. But the match went to overtime tied at 1, making that wager a six-figure donation to the house.
• $50,000 France +200 to win the World Cup (Caesars). If the French lift the trophy, then the bettor nets $100,000 profit (total payout $150,000).

All these major wagers make this a good time to reinforce this reminder: These high-rollers/high-net-worth bettors generally have the means to absorb big losses. 

You and I? Not so much. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.