WhatIfSports 2016 Big East Tournament predictions: will Villanova continue its domination?
The Big East conference features two of the best teams in all of college basketball. Villanova and Xavier are both in the top-5 of the national AP poll, which would seem to set up an exciting matchup for the championship.
Don't count out the depth of this conference, though. With five teams projected to make the big dance, the Big East retained the status of being one of the toughest conferences to play in, checking in at fourth in conference RPI this season.
Will any team be able to knock Villanova or Xavier off their collision course for the title? We'll find out as all eyes turn to Madison Square Garden, but in advance of the tournament, we played every matchup 1,001 times using our college basketball simulation engine, advancing the winners until a champion was crowned.
Check out the results below:
Big East Opening Round
| ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score |
| 8) Georgetown Hoyas | 72.5 | 73.5 |
| vs. 9) DePaul Blue Demons | 27.5 | 67.2 |
| 7) Marquette Golden Eagles | 77.4 | 74.3 |
| vs. 10) St. John's Red Storm | 22.6 | 67.1 |
The opening round featured four teams fighting for the right to play the conference's two powerhouses. Georgetown, a 2-seed in last year's tournament, decisively took down a DePaul team that was just 3-15 in the conference during the regular season. In the other opening matchup, Marquette easily defeated conference cellar dweller St. John's.
Big East Quarterfinals
| ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score |
| 1) Villanova Wildcats | 78.4 | 76.6 |
| vs. 8) Georgetown Hoyas | 21.6 | 68.4 |
| 4) Providence Friars | 29.2 | 74.5 |
| vs. 5) Butler Bulldogs | 70.8 | 80.5 |
| 3) Seton Hall Pirates | 62.6 | 77.2 |
| vs. 6) Creighton Bluejays | 37.4 | 73.8 |
| 2) Xavier Musketeers | 65.7 | 80.5 |
| vs. 7) Marquette Golden Eagles | 34.3 | 75.5 |
The Big East quarterfinals featured our first "upset" of the tournament, but it's not like this is a Cinderella story. In a matchup between 4-seed Providence and 5-seed Butler, the Bulldogs pulled out a pretty dominant win, shutting down the dynamic combo of conference leading scorer Ben Bentil and future NBA player Kris Dunn. For the Bulldogs, this would solidify their spot in the national tournament while likely knocking the rival Friars a seed or two.
The rest of the quarterfinals went by the books. Villanova easily handled a struggling Georgetown team. Marquette hung in there against Xavier, but couldn't get enough stops at the end of the game. Seton Hall, meanwhile, continued its dramatic turnaround from last year and beat an always plucky Creighton team in a close game, effectively ending Creighton's hopes of making the big dance this season.
Big East Semifinals
| ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score |
| 1) Villanova Wildcats | 71.7 | 80.5 |
| vs. 5) Butler Bulldogs | 28.3 | 75.1 |
| 3) Seton Hall Pirates | 48.6 | 77.0 |
| vs. 2) Xavier Musketeers | 51.4 | 77.4 |
In the semifinals, Villanova received its first real test against Butler. The balanced regular season scoring of the Wildcats showed up to lead the day once again, vaulting Villanova to the Big East championship game for the second year in a row.
Xavier didn't coast nearly as easily in its semifinal matchup. Isaiah Whitehead's scoring and distributing kept Seton Hall in it the whole way, but the Musketeers were able to mount just enough offense to avoid the upset and squeak out a win, keeping their dream for a 1-seed alive.
Big East Championship Game
| ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score |
| 1) Villanova Wildcats | 72.5 | 80.5 |
| vs. 2) Xavier Musketeers | 27.5 | 74.9 |
Finally, the matchup we've all been waiting for. Xavier and Villanova split their two regular season games. Villanova trounced Xavier 95-64 early on in conference play, which appeared to be a wakeup call for the Musketeers. In their rematch late in February, Xavier protected its home-court and continued its high-scoring ways with a 90-81 victory.
With two of college basketball's best and most balanced offenses battling it out for the Big East crown, you knew we would see some fireworks in this one. Leading scorers Josh Hart and Trevon Bluiett are two big guards who can score and clean the glass with the best of them, making this a marquee matchup for multiple reasons.
In the end, it was Hart and the Wildcats making it look easy in the championship by defeating Xavier and all but guaranteeing themselves a 1-seed in the national tourney. The win would mark Villanova's second Big East tournament championship in a row.
