WhatIfSports 2014 College Football Week 5 Predictions

BY foxsports • December 24, 2016

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine provides game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. 

Check out our 2014 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Arkansas at Texas A&M

Sports simulation engines love to generate their predictions and projections based on the statistical DNA or resume of the teams involved in the matchup. What they aren't a fan of are quarter-by-quarter suspensions of collegiate athletes followed by a change of heart less than 24 hours before kickoff. Despite the challenges Florida State's athletic department threw at WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine, Jameis Winston's suspension resulted in a near perfect prediction Saturday night. Out of 101 game simulations, we predicted the Seminoles would win 52.5 percent of the time by an average score of 24-20 over the Tigers. Not too shabby.

Looking ahead to Week 5, a college football analysis recently proclaimed that the SEC West could be the ninth NFL division this season - it's that loaded. While those not in SEC country roll their eyes in disgust, Texas A&M and Arkansas meet up in our WhatIfSports.com college football featured game of the week.

After experiencing a Week 1 beat down by No. 6 Auburn, the Razorbacks have rattled off three straight wins including a convincing 49-28 victory at Texas Tech. Bret Bielema and offensive Coordinator Jim Chaney have installed a run-first offense that may remind some of Bielema's backfield production from his time coaching Wisconsin. The running back by committee of Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams has combined for 881 yards with 12 touchdowns the first month of the season. Arkansas ranks eighth in the country in rushing yards per game at better than 324 yards per contest.

The defensive numbers aren't so rosy as Arkansas State actually ranks ahead of the Razorbacks in total and scoring defense. Unlike Bielema's Badgers, Arkansas' defense ranks in the bottom half in those two categories.

Kevin Sumlin's Aggies haven't missed a beat without Johnny Football as Kenny Hill set the tone with a big win at South Carolina in Week 1. The quarterback is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and only one pick. Playing the role of Mike Evans this season is Malcome Kennedy with a team-high 30 receptions for 334 yards, but Josh Reynolds leads the receiving corps with four scores. A & M is fourth in the nation in passing yards per game at over 400 per contest.

Their defense stinks - we'll leave it at that. However, when you have an offense like the Aggies, the video game, up-tempo style makes up for most deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball.

We simulated the Aggies and Razorbacks 101 times and the computer likes Texas A&M 75.2-percent of the time by an average score of 29-21.

College Football Week 5 Predictions
Matchup Win % Avg. Score  
Western Michigan Broncos 14.4 14.0 Boxscore
Virginia Tech Hokies 85.6 27.5  
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 27.7 14.2 Boxscore
Louisville Cardinals 72.3 21.6  
Kent State Golden Flashes 31.7 18.0 Boxscore
Virginia Cavaliers 68.3 23.8  
Akron Zips 37.6 20.2 Boxscore
Pittsburgh Panthers 62.4 25.2  
North Carolina Tar Heels 42.6 23.0 Boxscore
Clemson Tigers 57.4 24.6  
Colorado State Rams 47.5 23.2 Boxscore
Boston College Eagles 52.5 24.2  
Duke Blue Devils 48.5 24.6 Boxscore
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 51.5 23.5  
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 72.3 26.0 Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange 27.7 17.6  
Florida State Seminoles 75.2 30.5 Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack 24.8 19.5  
South Florida Bulls 14.9 13.9 Boxscore
Wisconsin Badgers 85.1 28.0  
Wyoming Cowboys 22.8 18.4 Boxscore
Michigan State Spartans 77.2 27.4  
Illinois Fighting Illini 30.7 20.7 Boxscore
Nebraska Cornhuskers 69.3 29.0  
Northwestern Wildcats 34.7 18.2 Boxscore
Penn State Nittany Lions 65.3 23.9  
Tulane Green Wave 37.6 18.6 Boxscore
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 62.4 22.8  
Cincinnati Bearcats 45.5 21.4 Boxscore
Ohio State Buckeyes 54.5 22.8  
Minnesota Golden Gophers 51.5 21.7 Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines 48.5 21.9  
Maryland Terrapins 61.4 24.9 Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers 38.6 23.2  
Iowa Hawkeyes 70.8 25.0 Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers 29.2 17.8  
Eastern Illinois Panthers 5.0 8.6 Boxscore
Ohio Bobcats 95.0 41.1  
Central Michigan Chippewas 35.6 24.7 Boxscore
Toledo Rockets 64.4 29.0  
Miami (OH) RedHawks 38.6 19.7 Boxscore
Buffalo Bulls 61.4 24.4  
Bowling Green Falcons 72.3 27.1 Boxscore
@ Massachusetts Minutemen 27.7 17.8  
Washington State Cougars 31.7 22.7 Boxscore
Utah Utes 68.3 27.5  
Oregon State Beavers 40.6 22.6 Boxscore
USC Trojans 59.4 27.2  
Colorado Buffaloes 43.6 23.3 Boxscore
California Golden Bears 56.4 26.0  
Stanford Cardinal 59.4 22.9 Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies 40.6 20.6  
UCLA Bruins 62.4 26.6 Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils 37.6 22.5  
New Mexico State Aggies 8.9 15.8 Boxscore
LSU Tigers 91.1 31.6  
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 21.8 17.0 Boxscore
Auburn Tigers 78.2 28.9  
Arkansas Razorbacks 24.8 21.3 Boxscore
Texas A&M Aggies 75.2 29.3  
Memphis Tigers 29.7 19.0 Boxscore
Ole Miss Rebels 70.3 25.7  
Tennessee Volunteers 29.2 18.0 Boxscore
Georgia Bulldogs 70.8 26.5  
Missouri Tigers 39.1 21.0 Boxscore
South Carolina Gamecocks 60.9 23.9  
Vanderbilt Commodores 43.1 17.4 Boxscore
Kentucky Wildcats 56.9 20.2  
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 48.0 28.4 Boxscore
Navy Midshipmen 52.0 29.4  
Army Black Knights 95.0 42.6 Boxscore
@ Yale Bulldogs 5.0 6.9  
UTEP Miners 17.3 19.9 Boxscore
Kansas State Wildcats 82.7 30.2  
Texas Tech Red Raiders 39.6 26.4 Boxscore
Oklahoma State Cowboys 60.4 30.7  
Baylor Bears 78.2 30.6 Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones 21.8 19.6  
Texas Longhorns 79.2 25.7 Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks 20.8 16.0  
FIU Golden Panthers 24.3 18.3 Boxscore
UAB Blazers 75.7 27.3  
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 45.5 27.1 Boxscore
Old Dominion Monarchs 54.5 27.0  
UTSA Roadrunners 62.4 27.0 Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls 37.6 23.1  
Rice Owls 72.8 26.2 Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles 27.2 20.5  
UNLV Rebels 36.6 23.7 Boxscore
San Diego State Aztecs 63.4 26.4  
Fresno State Bulldogs 59.4 29.8 Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos 40.6 26.5  
Nevada Wolf Pack 63.4 29.6 Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans 36.6 24.7  
Boise State Broncos 72.8 29.5 Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons 27.2 22.4  
Appalachian State Mountaineers 35.1 23.0 Boxscore
Georgia Southern Eagles 64.9 28.4  
Troy Trojans 37.6 24.3 Boxscore
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 62.4 28.2  
South Alabama Jaguars 76.2 28.9 Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals 23.8 19.9  
Temple Owls 45.5 23.2 Boxscore
Connecticut Huskies 54.5 22.2  
Texas State Bobcats 46.5 20.9 Boxscore
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 53.5 23.0  
TCU Horned Frogs 79.2 26.8 Boxscore
@ SMU Mustangs 20.8 16.7  

For additional statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.



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