FOX Fantasy SuperContest Week 2 NFL Picks
The 2015 SuperContest at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook promises to be bigger and better than ever as entrants are signing up at a record pace in hopes of potentially winning the first-ever $1 million grand prize.
Each week during the 2015 NFL season, FOX Sports fantasy editor Ryan Fowler and WhatIfSports.com's NFL simulation engine, both part of Team OddsShark, will share three of their five SuperContest picks. Deadline for entering picks is 8pm ET Fridays.
Follow Team OddsShark's performance all season long with weekly picks (posted each Saturday afternoon) and current standings.
Picks subject to change after initial publication.
Ryan Fowler
Patriots (-1) over the Bills
Even when you consider how well DeAngelo Williams ran against the Patriots in Week 1 - 21 carries for 127 yards - remember a dinged up LeSean McCoy (hamstring) could only muster 41 yards on 17 carries (2.4) against a below-average Colts defense. McCoy's production will make or break the Bills chances of sending the Patriots home with a loss.
On offense, the Patriots get LeGarrette Blount back from his one-game suspension. So, the goal-line carries will go to the big guy, but I wouldn't count out Dion Lewis - 120 total yards vs. PIT - from making an impact.
Titans (-1) over the Browns
At time of publication, Josh McCown was closer to clearing concussion protocol and working towards Week 2 starter status. If not him, Johnny Manziel (elbow) would get the nod. However, it's worth noting Austin Davis was also getting first team reps in practice this week. This scenario is a microcosm of the Browns offensive depth chart.
The Titans' defense held the Buccaneers - which has a better offense than the Browns - to less than 300 total yards of offense and forced two turnovers with four sacks.
So, the question I posed last week becomes relevant again - who on the Browns offense is going to score a touchdown?
The Jets rushed for 154 yards against the Browns defense last week. Bishop Sankey and former Cleveland Browns back Terrance West combined for over 100 rushing yards against the Buccaneers.
Cowboys (+5.5) over the Eagles
Sure, Dallas won't have Dez Bryant. But this point spread is only imposing if Tony Romo was missing from the starting lineup.
Plus, don't discount Joseph Randle / Lance Dunbar / Darren McFadden out of the backfield. The Cowboys front office wants 30 carries a game behind the excellent o-line. The Falcons rushed for 105 paced by rookie Tevin Coleman's 80 yards with Devonta Freeman (see: Dunbar's role) picking up three receptions for 29 yards.
On defense, the Cowboys have to do a better job applying pressure on Bradford to create unforced errors. Dallas forced no turnovers and only sacked Eli Manning once on Sunday. The Falcons got eight QB hits on Bradford to keep him uneasy in the pocket.
WhatIfSports NFL Simulation Engine
Texans (+3) over the Panthers
In WhatIfSports.com’s Week 2 NFL predictions, the underdog Texans are favored outright over Carolina. In 501 simulations, Houston won 57.9 percent of the time by an average score of 22-19. For the pick to come to fruition, Houston needs a better performance from Ryan Mallett than it received from Brian Hoyer in a Week 1 loss to the Chiefs (18-34, 236 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). While Carolina has the home field advantage and a 1-0 record, it’s worth noting that the W did come against the Jaguars. View the box score.
Lions (+3) over the Vikings
Another upset pick for WhatIfSports is the Lions over the Vikings. We simulated the matchup 501 times and like Detroit 64.5 percent of the time by an average score of 26-22. This prediction is a bit daring since the Lions burned us in Week 1, when we took Detroit (+3) over San Diego. The Chargers were down 21-10 at the half but rallied with 23 second-half points for a 33-28 victory. We’re hoping Detroit doesn’t suffer a similar meltdown against its conference rival. View the box score.
Seahawks (+3.5) cover against the Packers
We have a slim margin for success in picking the Seahawks to cover the 3.5-point spread. Even though our ATS confidence is at 61.9 percent, we still like the Packers to come out on top, with Aaron Rodgers and co. winning 51.8 percent of simulations. If Green Bay can manage a victory AND Seattle covers the spread, our simulation engine is going to be on cloud nine (or whatever level of happiness a computer can attain). View the box score.