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For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player's isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player's ISO or wOBA, you know why I emphasize hitters with numbers much higher than the 2015 averages.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the four highest over/unders, provided by OddsShark...
2. Stephen Strasburg (WAS) and Madison Bumgarner (SF) are both the strongest favorites of the night at around -200.
3. There was some shuffling of the Red Sox rotation: Steven Wright (Friday), Eduardo Rodriguez (Saturday), and David Price (Sunday).
4. For the BvP readers: Salvador Perez is 22-46 (.478) against Justin Verlander...Buster Posey is 12-28 (.429) against Andrew Cashner...Also, Jose Ramirez is 7-10 (.700) against Ervin Santana.
5. No weather/PPD concerns tonight! Welcome back, baseball!
Must-start of the day: Jay Bruce, CIN
He has a .294 ISO against right-handed pitchers in 2016. In Bruce's career, he is 12-32 (.375 AVG) with three home runs against Matt Garza. Also, the Reds are my second-favorite stack of the day.
Deal of the day: Trea Turner, WAS
He's batting in the leadoff spot tonight against lefty Francisco Liriano. When facing southpaws, Turner has a career .384 wOBA.
Avoid of the day: Melvin Upton Jr., SD
He is 1-20 (.050) with nine strikeouts against Madison Bumgarner.
Stack of the day: Washington Nationals
According to our friends at OddsShark, the Nats are listed as +900 to win the World Series. With a great rotation and solid offense, I'll take that bet. As for tonight, they are much stronger favorites at home against the Pirates. Francisco Liriano is 2-4 with a 6.80 ERA on the road this season. Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, and Danny Espinosa are great, affordable choices tonight.
SP:
Stephen Strasburg, WAS - He has struck out at least eight batters in four of the past five games. In July, thus far, Stras is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA and has tallied 14 Ks in 13.2 innings of work.
James Paxton, SEA - His strikeout total is sporadic, but Paxton is facing a Houston offense that loves to make every pitcher's K/9 stats increase.
Madison Bumgarner, SF - A dominant pitcher against the Padres offense? Yes, please. Also, the Mad Bum has pitched against San Diego twice already this season: 2-0 (1.72 ERA) with 20 strikeouts in 15.2 innings of action.
Chris Archer, TB - He's notched at least nine strikeouts in two of the past three outings. Archer also has a 2.70 ERA in 56.2 innings at home this season.
C:
Buster Posey, SF - (See "5 Things")
Salvador Perez, KC - (See "5 Things")
1B:
Joey Votto, CIN - He has a .212 ISO against righties this season.
Tommy Joseph, PHI - He has a .225 ISO against righties this year.
2B:
Howie Kendrick, LAD - Great salary relief as a leadoff hitter tonight.
Trea Turner, WAS - "Deal of the day."
3B:
Maikel Franco, PHI - He has a .219 ISO against righties this season.
Jake Lamb, ARI - As I mentioned in the "fantasy players who shocked the world in the first half of 2016," Lamb has the second-best ISO in the MLB (David Ortiz is first).
SS:
Danny Espinosa, WAS - He has a .362 ISO against lefties this year.
Corey Seager, LAD - He has a .186 ISO against southpaws this season.
Jose Reyes, NYM - He has a .231 ISO against righties this year.
OF:
Adam Duvall, CIN - He has a .316 ISO against righties this year.
Jay Bruce, CIN - "Must-start of the day."
Jayson Werth, WAS - He has a .275 ISO against lefties this year.
Stephen Piscotty, STL - He has a .247 ISO and a .452 wOBA against lefties in 2016.
Matt Holliday, STL - He has a .244 ISO against lefties this year.
Trayce Thompson, LAD - He has a .203 ISO against lefties this season.
Jose Ramirez, CLE - (See "5 Things")
