National Football League

Why the Bucs will beat the Saints

Published Nov. 2, 2011 1:00 a.m. ET

Peter Schrager

No two teams have been less predictable this year than the Saints and Buccaneers. A week after Tampa Bay was trounced 48-3 in San Francisco, the Bucs took a cross-country flight home and responded with an upset victory over New Orleans. Seven days later, they didn’t wake up until the third quarter in a loss to the Bears in London. The Saints, meanwhile, responded to their loss to the Bucs with a 62-7 win over one winless team, only to lose 31-21 to a second winless team the next Sunday.

Up and down. Down and up. Up and down.

Adam, I know you’re scared of roller coasters (Note: I don’t know that, but I have more than just a small inkling that I’m right on that), so this analogy might not apply, but watching both teams has made me sick this season. Following the beat of the unpredictable drum these squads have been marching to, I see the Bucs giving the Saints their first loss in the Superdome this season.

A victory Sunday not only would give the Baby Bucs — the youngest team in the league this year — first place in the NFC South, it’d also give them a season sweep of New Orleans and the much-coveted tiebreaker over Sean Payton’s squad.

Like few teams have since he arrived in New Orleans in 2006, the Buccaneers defense stifled and confounded Drew Brees in Tampa three weeks ago. The defense intercepted the Saints quarterback three times and forced four turnovers overall in that mid-October win. Expect more of the same on Sunday, as the Buccaneers coaching staff has had two full weeks to prepare for the Saints offense. After lighting it up against Indianapolis, Brees came down to Earth and threw two picks last week against a spotty Rams defense.

Tampa Bay’s bye week came at the perfect time. The Bucs will be getting premier second-year players LeGarrette Blount and Gerald McCoy back in the lineup. Perhaps more important, the bye week gave opportunities for guys such as Jeff Faine and rookie Mason Foster to rest and heal from their nagging injuries.

It’s rare that a Week 9 game has a must-win label, but this is one of those for Tampa. Sunday is the first of three straight games in which Tampa plays against current first-place teams. After their trip to New Orleans, the Bucs face Houston and Green Bay. This stretch is it, and Josh Freeman knows that.

“It’s no longer the beginning of the season,” Freeman told The Associated Press this week. “You’re starting to get into the home stretch. We’ve just got to find a way to play well. We found a way to do it last year. If we can channel that same sort of energy, come out and put together complete football games, we’ll be in pretty good shape come December.”

After the Buccaneers this weekend, New Orleans has to travel to Atlanta. Will the Saints be looking ahead? Will they take their recent success at home for granted? Perhaps. They missed Mark Ingram last week, but the lack of running game wasn’t why the Saints lost. They played sloppy football. Blocked punts, interceptions and failed red-zone opportunities plagued Brees and Co. from start to finish.

Josh Freeman has played his best games in November and December, and he has had two weeks to prepare for this one. Adam, I know you have the edge on me this year, but this week you’ll be regretting your “courageous” habit of only picking the favorites every week.

The Bucs will win this one. And the roller-coaster ride will continue . . .