National Football League

What are your team's *actual* chances of winning the Super Bowl?

Published Nov. 15, 2016 2:32 p.m. ET

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Chris Chase

NFL training camps are about a week away and across the country fans are deluding themselves *just enough* to buy into their team's chances at glory in Super Bowl LI. (Man, it's stupid they went back to Roman numerals.) And while the NFL is the ultimate come-out-of-nowhere sport, most teams will stay in their cocoon. That's why we came up with this handy guide that lets you know whether you should curb your enthusiasm for the upcoming NFL season or start clearing weekends in January. Here are your team's chances of winning the Super Bowl:

The same chance as RG3 winning MVP (and they know it)

Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers

All four of these teams are either getting 66/1 or 100/1 (the two steepest) odds to win the Super Bowl, with the Browns getting the latter. Even that's too good. It's almost as if Vegas doesn't have access to Cleveland's quarterback depth chart.

The same chance as RG3 winning MVP (and they know it, deep down)

Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets

Good teams and well-run franchises populate this list - well, most of it. But despite having two title-winning quarterbacks, a guy who's made the playoffs five straight years and, uh, Brock Osweiler, these teams, and fans of these teams, know the season is going to end sans confetti and parade.

Nopeat

Denver Broncos

The great defenses of the past 30 years - the '85 Bears and '00 Ravens - have all regressed the following year. The Broncos didn't lose a quarterback as much as they lost their best offensive mind. But more so than anything, here's what they gained:

HAH!

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia's coaching search ended with team hiring their third or fourth choice - a mediocre backup QB who's only been a coordinator for three years (on a team where the head coach basically runs the offense), was a high-school coach when some of his current players were already in the NFL and is tasked with coaching a roster created by Chip Kelly for Chip Kelly that was decimated by Chip Kelly and the outsized ego of Chip Kelly.

All eyes on 2017

Buffalo Bills, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans

I'm not fully ruling out a sensational sophomore season from Jameis Winston and/or Marcus Mariota but hopes for these young teams should be playoff-based, with an eye toward a brighter future or, in Oakland's case, anywhere but Oakland.

You cannot be serious

Jacksonville Jaguars

Every year, the NFL media picks a longtime also-ran that improved in the offseason to be their surprise dark horse. The stories are all the same. Coach coming into his own. New culture. Excited fan base. Young talent. Breakout players. You could write a Mad Libs template and just fill in different names every July. Trying to identify the out-of-nowhere team is a worthy endeavor because in the NFL there's always an out-of-nowhere team, if not two or three. But the teams that will break out are surprising and an expected surprise is an oxymoron. So while the Jags have all the preseason ingredients - smart owner, job security for coaches and front office, young quarterback, free-agent signings and rookie defensive stars - it's not gonna happen. Why? The Jags are the Jags.

NFC playoff, and playoff only, hopefuls

Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings

If not for a 27-yard field goal from Blair Walsh that hooked left, thanks, in part, to the third-coldest kickoff temperature in NFL history, the Vikings would have defeated the Seahawks in last year's wild card en route to a game with a Cardinals team that needed overtime to beat the squad Minnesota bested in Week 17 to win the NFC North (Green Bay). So, by all accounts, Minnesota should be in the conversation again. Adrian Peterson is going to run for a lot of yards, Teddy Bridgewater will neither dazzle nor harm and the defense will be as stout as in 2015, when the Vikes allowed the second-fewest points in the NFC. So why are they on the outs? Good teams miss the playoffs. The difference between 11-5 (the Vikings' record last year) and 7-9 can hinge on a handful of plays. The surprise teams have to take the place of someone and it simply feels like Minnesota's turn for a downer. Detroit looks like a mess (though don't be shocked if the absence of Calvin Johnson ends up working out okay for a team that tried to force so much offense through him). The Falcons are mystifyingly averaging six wins per year since their near-miss in the 2012 NFC title game. And the Bears? Well, any hope was dashed when the team's official Twitter account posted this on Tuesday:

Deflate your expectations

New England Patriots

Strongly coming off a year that ended one play short of the AFC title? Check. Preseason Super Bowl favorite? Check. Impending AFC East title? Check. Playoff bye? Check. (Probably.) Typically great season by Tom Brady? Check. Masterful coaching job by Bill Belichick? Check. So why no love for the Pats? It's not Brady's four-game suspension to start the year. Belichick could have Ted Wells under center and get a split. It's not the quiet offseason either - the Patriots make bigger splashes than people like to think, but the years when none of their signings seem vital are all the more dangerous. It's nothing really, other than a hunch that the model NFL franchise (at least in terms of strength) will get tripped up in the unpredictable playoffs, as happens more years than not. Thirty-one teams end their season in Week 17 or with a loss. Only one can win. The Pats are considerable favorites to be that team, but in 2016, I'm taking the field.

Ignore the media

Carolina Panthers

Two teams have lost the Super Bowl one year and come back to win it the next. Both did it over 40 years ago. The last three teams to even get back to the Super Bowl a year after losing it were the Buffalo Bills, the Buffalo Bills and the Buffalo Bills. Streaks are meant to be broken but not this one, not this year. While the Panthers will be the media's obvious favorite to repeat as NFC champions, the team honestly can't play any better than they did in 2015 and even then they got worked in the Super Bowl by a quarterback who played like he was permanently wearing a neck brace. Missing the playoffs is far more likely than winning the Super Bowl.

An NFC East team that could make some noise

Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Redskins

Odds say it won't be Washington, as no team has repeated as NFC East champion since the Eagles of 2001-2004. But are you buying the Giants with their new coach or the Cowboys, everybody's preseason darling? The division winner will make a surprise playoff run. It's just a matter of figuring out who that'll be.

One of these 7 teams is winning the Super Bowl

Arizona Cardinals - It's still hard to take the Cardinals seriously as a contender. It has nothing to do with the team's talent and coaching staff, both of which are top-notch. It's just one of those deals about the leopard and its spots. I keep waiting for University of Phoenix Stadium to disappear and the woeful Cardinals to magically be transformed back to playing in front of half-empty bleachers at Arizona State, like this was all a dream from a Kangol-wearing Cinderella-like godfather.

Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck has five losses in each of his first four seasons in the league. Unfortunately, he only played seven games last year. With Luck due to get healthy and play all 16 games because he doesn't consort with known deflators, look for the Colts to get back in the thick of it.

Green Bay Packers - This stat fascinates me even more than news of his estrangement from his Bryce Harper-haired brother on The Bachelorette. It speaks to the power of perception of the importance of winning early in a career. Through the first seven playoff appearances of their respective careers, Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning were both 7-6 with one title. I didn't say it means anything, I just thought it was interesting.

Kansas City Chiefs - Andy Reid has to do it sometime, right?

Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger had more Super Bowl wins in his first five years (2) than he has playoff wins in his last five (1). That streak ends this year.

San Diego Chargers - There has to be one ridiculous team on this side of the list and that team should invariably be quarterbacked by a dude in a bolo tie.

Seattle Seahawks - As long as the front office keeps keepin' on, Russell Wilson stays healthy, there's an offensive line to block for running backs of various loquaciousness and the defense remains motivated by every perceived slight Richard Sherman can concoct, the Seahawks will stay a favorite to win every year in the near future, especially with half its division being a complete mess.

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