New England Patriots

Week 8: Patriots - Bills Preview and Prediction

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 12:11 a.m. ET

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Sep 20, 2015; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills fans cheer for the team during the first quarter against the New England Patriots at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

“Revenge is always the weak pleasure of a little and narrow mind” – Decimus Junius Juvenalis

The New England Patriots may not be looking at their matchup against the Buffalo Bills as payback, but it would be only fitting that with the return of QB Tom Brady, the Patriots hand the Bills a loss at home.

For the Bills, they have the chance to be the only team to sweep the Patriots since 2000. For the Patriots, they look to improve to 7-1, and further themselves from the rest of the AFC.

Last week, Buffalo suffered their first loss after winning four straight games, but are still a highly motivated team who aren’t afraid of the Patriots. As usual for Rex Ryan teams, this game will be their Super Bowl.

The season is still young, but this matchup is more important than most realize.

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Quick Stats

Next: Matchup and Player to Watch

Sep 20, 2015; Orchard Park, NY, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) drops to pass under pressure by Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams (95) during the second half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Patriots beat the Bills 40-32. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Matchup to Watch

Patriots OL vs Bills DL

In their last matchup, the Bills had their way with the Patriots offensive line. With Brady back, the protection calls and audibles will be in effect, as Jacoby Brissett was a rookie, and didn’t have the experience.

This is ultimately the most important matchup of the game as it will dictate how they perform offensively. The last time the Patriots traveled to a hostile environment where a silent count was necessary, Brady was abused like a rag doll and the Patriots scored just 18 points in a game they possibly could have won.

It’s likely the Bills will try to drop multiple defensive backs into coverage and force Brady to hold the ball longer than he would like to, however, if the offensive line can give him enough time, the holes in the defense will appear.

The Bills do get a boost with DT Marcell Dareus returning for the first time this season, so the interior of the Patriots offensive line will have their hands full even more.

W2W4: Patriots Offense vs. Bills Defense

Player to Watch

Tyrod Taylor

During their last matchup, Bills QB Tyrod Taylor finished the game with 27-39 (69%) with 246 yards and 1 TD. The Patriots defense struggled for the majority of the first half to stop him. They attempted to stop him from scrambling and wanted him to stay in the pocket and make plays with his arm. Unfortunately it backfired, as the Bills were able to keep the defense on their toes with a good mix of play selection.

Taylor performanced well earlier on, however, during the second half the defense held Taylor to 10-17 (58%) for 81 yards which is something positive to look at heading into this matchup.

Since their last meeting, the Patriots defense has improved, but limiting Taylor through the air and ground should be a focal point of this game.

Oct 16, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) makes a pass to running back James White (28) during the first quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

X-Factor

James White

It’s expected that the Patriots will go into this game trying to run the ball with RB LeGarrette Blount as effective as they can. However, there is a good chance that the Patriots lean on their passing game to score points fast. This is where James White comes into play.

When the Patriots traveled to Buffalo last season, Dion Lewis had an solid performance finishing with 138 total yards (40 rushing yards, 1 TD and 6 receptions for 98 yards). He constantly made defenders miss and despite fumbling the ball, showed his potential to be a threat out of the backfield.

White may not be as small and shifty as Lewis, but he is a great receiving back, and has been since last season. He is also quietly the league’s most efficient pass-catching back in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

If he can get going out of the backfield early, it will eventually open things up down field, as the linebackers will need to account for another threat.

W2W4: Patriots Defense vs. Bills Offense

Keys to the Game

Pass Protection

As mentioned before, the Patriots pass protection will need one of their best performances of the year, as they will be in hostile territory and will be facing a motivated Bills defense. If the offensive line can give Brady enough time, he could be in for another field day.

Stopping the Run

With McCoy looking doubtful to play on Sunday, RB Mike Gillislee will likely get the start, with Reggie Bush backing him up. These two may not be a formidable, however, along side Tyrod Taylor, it makes their rush something the defense will need to account for. If New England can stop the run, they can get the favourable matchups they wanted.

Staying Aggressive

Scoring points will obviously put the Patriots in good shape, however, if they can score fast and early, it will keep the crowd out of the game. Last season, when they played in Buffalo, New England got out to a 37-13 lead until the fourth quarter where the Patriots let their foot off the gas and allowed Buffalo to outscore them 20-3.

Disciplined Football

Another important key to this game is for the Patriots offense and defense to remain disciplined. The Patriots were called for 9 penalties for 90 yards, with the biggest coming on their very first drive. Shooting themselves in the foot won’t help them win this game, especially if it’s a close one.

Staying Healthy

This is said every week. Win or loss, the most important result of this game will be remaining healthy.

Oct 2, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; Buffalo Bills head coach Rex Ryan exits the field after the game at Gillette Stadium. The Bills defeated the Patriots 16-0. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Previous Meeting

16-0 Bills

Just three games ago, the Patriots were coming off an embarrassing loss to the Bills in Foxboro. It seemed unlikely they would be able to walk in and keep the Patriots offense off the scoreboard, considering the teamhad just shutout the Houston Texans and had 13 days of rest.

One could point to the team not having Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski not playing at 100%. However, those two play offense. There was no excuse for the Patriots defense, who did not show up until the second half.

2016 New England Patriots Season Prediction

Final Predcition

Same matchup. Different result.

With the return of Brady, it makes New England the favourites here. It would be foolish to think that with Brady the Patriots won’t be able to put up points at all (it is possible, but with the way he has been playing, it seems unlikely).

This game really comes down to how both teams perform in all phases of the game.

If the Patriots are not able to play a complete game, they could be in for a long afternoon. Although, if they perform well on offense and defense, and can nail a few field goals and PATs (that means you Gostkowski), they can surely leave New Era Field with a win.

New EnglandPatriots31

BuffaloBills17